2027: Win or lose, Tinubu would triumph

By Rasheed Ojikutu

One observes with consternation the attitude of some arch enemies of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu on the possible outcome of the 2027 general election in Nigeria. In fact, some of them are so bitter than one wonders whether it is the President that they detest or Nigeria. The sad news to them is that for the man in question, 2027 is a victory that goes beyond election because his place in the history of Nigeria cannot be erased by the outcome of the 2027 votes. Therefore, all those who are of the opinion that his loss would be his downfall should do a rethink.

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general election, political discussions are increasingly dominated by questions about who will succeed in the contest for the presidency. Will President Bola Ahmed Tinubu secure a second term? Will an opposition candidate defeat him? Will the election produce a political realignment capable of changing the direction of the country?

These are legitimate questions in a democracy. Elections determine who exercises political authority, and Nigerians have every right to scrutinise the records of those seeking their votes. The president’s supporters have the right to campaign for his re-election, just as his opponents have the right to present alternative programmes and seek a change of government.

The real question is “What does electoral victory or defeat mean for a man who has already occupied the highest political office in his country?”

President Tinubu as the incumbent has already secured a permanent place in the country’s political history as a person who attained the presidency through the constitutional electoral process. Therefore, the outcome of the 2027 election cannot reverse that historical achievement.

If he secures a second term and I pray he does, he will have the opportunity to continue his administration’s profound economic realignment and achievements. If he loses, he will leave office at the end of his first term and become a former president of Nigeria. However, none of the outcomes will erase the fact that he was president.

The key focus of this article is that President Tinubu’s historical place as a former or serving president goes beyond the 2027 election.

If he wins in 2027, the democratic process will have produced an outcome that allows him to continue in office.

In that sense, the significance of the 2027 election extends beyond the question of who will occupy Aso Rock Villa. It will also provide an opportunity to reflect on political maturity, the meaning of public service and the place of democratic restraint in Nigeria’s evolving political history. History is not written only at the end of a person’s career. Significant events become part of the historical record as they occur.

On 29 May 2023, Tinubu took the oath of office as Nigeria’s president. That inauguration marked the beginning of his administration and established his place among the individuals who have occupied the office since the restoration of democratic government in 1999.

The significance of that event is independent of the next election.

A person who becomes president does not cease to have been president merely because another candidate defeats him in a subsequent election. Electoral defeat can end a political tenure, but it cannot rewrite the historical record.

He has already become president. He has presided over the Federal Executive Council, participated in international engagements as head of state and government, and exercised the constitutional responsibilities of the presidency.

If another candidate defeats him in 2027, those facts will remain. If he wins, they will form part of the record of a presidency extended into a second term.

The important question is, therefore, not whether the election can erase his presidency. It cannot. The question is what the country will learn from his administration and how his conduct will shape the assessment of his political legacy.

A presidential legacy is more complicated than the number of years spent in office. Many world leaders, including Nigeria are remembered for institutional reforms. Others are associated with economic transformation, infrastructure development, national reconciliation, foreign policy or the expansion of democratic freedoms.

Some leave office with considerable public approval, while others face sustained criticism over their policies and decisions. In many cases, a leader’s reputation changes over time as new evidences emerge and the long-term consequences of government policies become clearer.

A presidential legacy is, therefore, neither automatically positive nor permanently settled on the day a leader leaves office. Tinubu’s legacy will be shaped by the totality of his administration’s record, including its achievements, policy choices and their effects on Nigerians.

Supporters may emphasise his economic reforms, efforts to restructure public finances, infrastructure projects and changes in the administration of government. Critics may focus on the cost of living, inflation, insecurity, unemployment, the distribution of economic hardship and the extent to which government policies have improved ordinary citizens’ welfare.

We should be able to distinguish between the intended objectives of a policy and its actual consequences. A policy may be introduced with a legitimate objective but produce significant hardship during implementation. Another may be unpopular in the short term but yield benefits over a longer period. The appropriate assessment requires data, context and careful evaluation rather than political slogans. This is where most of us get things wrong.

Bola Tinubu’s presidency is an established fact. Whether his administration strengthens democratic institutions, protects political freedoms and reinforces confidence in constitutional government is a separate question that must be evaluated through evidence. A president’s record is built through years of governance, not merely through the final result of a single contest.

National issues, well-being and survival goes beyong what comes to us but the derivable benefits to the nation and its people. Even those yet unborn.

The Yoruba says “Olorun ma jeki a je aiye awon omo wa mo aiye” literaly meaning “What is the benefit of our being well fed when our generations yet unborn will be hungry”. God forbid.

As a little digression, no participant in the past government in Nigeria has the right to fault the government of President Bola Tinubu, knowing that substantial part of Nigeria’s national malaise came from past governments and the indiscretion of their administrations. It is the height of hypocrisy for a man who ruled Nigeria for eleven out of its sixty-six years after independence to complain that the President could not fix Nigeria’s problems in four years. Was his administration able to fix it in eleven years?

“O ye eni gbogbo ko yo owo alagbafo, ko ye ato sile” literaly meaning that “it is unbefitting of a bed wetter to haggle over laundry charges.

Ojikutu is a professor of Statistics (rtd), University of Lagos.