By Lai Olurode

Generally speaking, elections are simultaneously a work of science and arts. A work of science because elections are procedural and the brighter the chances of success at the polls if there’s substantial compliance with the procedure. For example, the political party platform to be used cannot afford to be in factions or in court or in tatters in less than a year before the election. The choice of the candidates in the election must not be left to chances or controversial.

If a merger of political parties is in contemplation or any form of understanding between political parties, this must have been accomplished far before the election. This was the case with the APC which merged with the CPC and the other parties. The merger talks started much earlier in 2013 in preparation for the 2015 elections.

The candidate who aspires to win in a presidential must be predictable, trusted and be brutally factual, not playing the hide and seek game or playing to the gallery, predictable, demonstrate open and hidden commitment to democratic principles and have a strong constituency. In a diverse country as in Nigeria, any contender who jumps from one political party to the other may be confronted with political party identify crisis except he has been tested and was forced to exit his political party, otherwise, his approval rating by the generality of voters may be low.

Also as a work of arts, election managers and the competing political parties must be creative and proactive in relating to the worst case scenario.

What is my argument in favour of President Tinubu with regard to being truthful with the electorates? Just as was the case with Chief Obafemi Awolowo who was known not to be maverick, Tinubu presented a Muslim-Muslim Presidential ticket to Nigerians and he defended it. He was undeterred by the threat that a religious block will not support the bid. He maintained his ground. His argument was that though a Muslim himself, he told Nigerians that his wife is not only a Christian but a Pastor of the formidable and powerful Redeemed Christian Church of God.

He also admitted that his children are Christians. How many of Nigeria’s Presidential candidates on parade today can go on such a suicidal political mission. Tinubu damned all the consequences. Yet, hell did not let loose.

Of course, he was almost destined for political oxygen but it was not on ground of the Muslim-Muslim ticket that he rode on. The real reason was because his own political party largely worked for his rivals and crafted economic policies that were against his political ambition. There was no federal might deployed in his favour. Even some state Governors treated him as a political leper and were afraid of publicly identifying with him.

Today, the political environment at the federal level is friendly, so are most state governments. Though, the President’s political party lost in Osun state and a rather hitherto unknown political party cruised to victory. Only naïve political analysists will interpret this as a vote of no confidence in President Tinubu. The recent voters’ rebellion in Osun state has its own narrative which is for another day but a brief remark will suffice.

If there is anyone who stand to benefit from the ‘good’ and ‘competitive’ gubernatorial election in Osun, the person can be no other than President Tinubu. I was on ground in Osun and as a political sociologist, I was active in obtaining data for a possible research article on why the people turned down all appeasements to settle for mainstream politics in spite of its attractions. I quickly reminded myself that there was nothing unusual about this development.

Lagos State under the then Governor Tinubu was a rebel state under Obasanjo Presidency. The people of Lagos State then stood for Tinubu, a lonestar as President Obasanjo’s PDP embarked on a political tsunami that razed down the LOOBO states except Lagos State. I also recall that the tough and a no-nonsense President Donald Trump conceded New York state to the Democrats. Trump is a Republican President. No contradiction. Democracy, theoretically, triumphs on diversity. No one should enforce uniformity. Diversity is beautiful.

I heard voters whispering in Osun State that if Aare Tinubu allows to ‘tefe inu wa, into re yio kun ni Odun tombo’ – if President Tinubu allows our votes to count, our votes for him will overflow the ballot box next year’. So, the voters can manage the ensuing contradictions. They see Tinubu as Baba but not the Osun APC.

It was during his inauguration as the new President of Nigeria that Tinubu said that the so-called fuel subsidy is gone forever. Many Presidents before him avoided tackling headlong this lead poison because powerful interest groups will fight back and the backlash might be difficult to contain. I respect leaders who are atypical politicians who do not ride on the crest of populism and took tough decisions.

When I consider other variables of good election and the state of security today compared to yesterday, the President cannot but earn a comfortable mark. The residents of Osun had felt a sense of complete siege and political bombardment and had expected the worst election ever. In most cases polling units opened though there were logistic conundrums. But there were no intimidation and harassments by security agents.

Of course, there was sporadic but feeble display of power of incumbency. At last, the people heaved a sigh of relief and all thumbs were for the president for allowing votes to count in and for the triumph of voters preference aggregation in place of The Barrel of the Gun (apologies to Ruth First). With a combination of intelligence gathering and air bombardment, the table has turned against the bandits. Nigeria’s rating on security is improving.

Investments in social services, particularly education improved from 5.40 percent of the budgetary allocation in 2022 to 7.20 per cent in 2023 and 7.90 per cent in 2024. The downward trend in 2025 and 2026 should be arrested. No doubt, the welfare of academic in the Varsities has improved. Sometimes, I feel like returning to the classrooms. The health sector deserves a robust intervention. On road infrastructure the regime of the late President Muhammadu Buhari completed over 9,000 km. of road in eight years. President Bola Tinubu has nearly completed approximately 6,000 km. of road network in less than four years.

My personal opinion is that on all these variables alone, President Tinubu is most likely to earn more votes in the 2027 Presidential race than he did in 2023 when he had to surmount intimidating and frustrating challenges. If Governor Ademola Jackson Nurudeen Adeleke, a Christian, a dancer with lovely dancing steps could win in Osun on the account of his investments on road constructions across the major cities and enhanced workers welfare package in a predominantly Muslim state that Osun is, it will stand on odd logic to expect Mr. President to lose in 2027.

My prediction is that the President is likely to have a landslide verdict, ceteris paribus. The political parties, even when taken together, seem too unorganised and unwilling to forgo persona ambition whereas Tinubu patiently waited in the wings for eight solid years. Sacrifice is the language.

Olurode, retired Professor of Sociology and a former INEC National Commissioner.