Get Guardian on Google***Says ruling party would win in 13 states, NDC in 13 states, ADC in 11 states
The popularity and acceptance of the All Progressives Congress (APC) may be waning if the projections of the Political Intelligence Group (PIG) of Politico.ng are anything to go by, disclosing that APC would win 13 states following its monitoring of political developments across the country.
In its review of political developments across Nigeria in September, the Political Intelligence Group had projected that APC would win in 19 states, but its review of political developments in October disclosed that APC would win in 13 states. In the briefing, he stated that APC is leading with 19 states, NDC with 10 states and ADC with 8 states.
Speaking during a press briefing on Thursday to announce its review of political developments in October, the Convener of PIG, Lai Omotola, said: “In 2027 General elections, we predict the highest turnout of voters in the history of our elections with about 40 percent turnover as against 29 percent in the last election.
“As it stands today, we project a slim margin of victory among the three leading Contestants with President Bola Ahmed leading with a small margin and Mr. Peter Obi coming second and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar in third place, all with close margin.
“We project 13 states for APC, 13 for NDC and 11 for ADC. APC will win all South West States and all North Central states. NDC will win all South East states, South South states with Kano and FCT. ADC will win all states in the North East and North west except Kano and Zamfara. The above projection is with a caveat: if election is “free and fair”
“Field report. Opposition parties are encountering stiff resistance to campaign. APC is witnessing internal bickerings. These may affect all the 3 parties in their own way.
“Finally, it will be in the interest of the nation for all stakeholders to ensure that the elections are peaceful, free and fair. This will be a turning point for Nigeria’s democracy and the country will be a better place for it.
In the past month of October 2026, campaign have commenced among the 3 leading parties namely APC, ADC and NDC.
“In same month, INEC released the preliminary voters register diluted with AI generated names in order to beat 90 days release before election by Law but it ended up in controversy.
“APC had its maiden inaugural Campaign at Kaduna led by the leader of the Party and the President of the Nation, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu. There was economic debate on Subsidy generated by Alhaji Atiku who proposed a return to subsidy and the subsequent reduction in pump price by the federal government through NNPC for 30 days.”
Omotola noted that as the momentum begin to build towards 2027, the dynamics of the elections continue to change and electorate preferences continue to change as well.
“The political field has changed dramatically. Any Politician that enters the field with the mentality of business as usual will face imminent defeat. There are about 68m new voters that will be voting for the first time in 2027 elections and majority of these voters are youths. Unlike before, the young people between the ages of 18 and 49 will dominate the election.”
It would be recalled in while briefing on the political review of developments in September, Omotola said: “In October, the NDC increased the number of states from 8 in September to 10 states in October.
“The summation of the projection is APC is leading with 19 states, NDC with 10 states and ADC with 8 states. Let us caution that this result is presumed under a free and fair election.
