• GMI: Opposition division, regional vote split guarantee Tinubu’s victory
• North won’t fall for Atiku’s ethnic politics, says Kwankwaso
• APC slams Atiku over ‘Bola’ remark, pledges issue-based campaign
• Obi goes live on TikTok, pledges to visit all 36 states every year

After several failed efforts at galvanising the opposition towards adopting a consensus candidate to challenge President Bola Tinubu’s second-term bid, a group, the Christian Social Movement of Nigeria (CSMN), is reactivating the prospect after inviting 13 Christian presidential candidates, including Peter Obi, Seyi Makinde and Donald Duke, to participate in a consensus-building process ahead of the 2027 general election.
 
Exploiting the gap, another group, the Grassroots Mobilisation Initiative (GMI), yesterday projected that divisions among opposition parties and regional vote splits could give President Tinubu an advantage in the 2027 presidential election. The group, which supports the President’s re-election bid, said the opposition’s inability to build a united national coalition could affect its chances of mounting an effective challenge to the incumbent.
 
This is as Vice President Kashim Shettima, yesterday, held a closed-door meeting with former Kogi State Governor, Yahaya Bello; former Jigawa State Governor, Abubakar Badaru; and several other ex-governors, ministers and political figures at the Presidential Villa, Abuja. The delegation, identified as leaders of the National Directorate of Arewa for Asiwaju Movement, arrived at the State House at about 4:00 p.m. and proceeded to the Vice-President’s wing.
 
However, Shettima was still attending a separate meeting at the President’s wing, which began around 2:00 p.m., when the delegation arrived. The earlier meeting had the Minister of Livestock Development, Idi Maiha, and the Special Adviser to the President and Coordinator of the Presidential Livestock Reform, Prof. Attahiru Jega, in attendance, among others.
 
Jega is a former chairman of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC). Although the purpose of the delegation’s visit was not immediately known, it was gathered that the meeting was a courtesy visit.
 
Also present at the Villa were former Plateau State Governor, Simon Lalong; Director-General of the National Drug Law Enforcement Agency, Brig. Gen. Buba Marwa (retd.); and Special Adviser to the President on Policy Coordination, Hadiza Bala-Usman, among others.
 
The meeting comes two days before the planned inauguration of the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Campaign Council on Wednesday, October 14, at the State House Conference Centre, Abuja. It also precedes the party’s planned campaign flag-off in Kaduna State on October 24, ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
 
At the meeting, Shettima urged Northern leaders and stakeholders to rally behind President Tinubu’s re-election bid, insisting that the region has nothing to fear from another four years of the administration. Shettima said the North stood to benefit further from the policies, appointments and development projects of the Tinubu administration, urging political leaders and citizens to close ranks in pursuit of the region’s economic development and the welfare of its people.
 
He cited the reported disbursement of N450 billion by the Bank of Agriculture to 700,000 smallholder farmers nationwide, noting that about 70 per cent of the beneficiaries were from the North. According to him, the figures underscore the administration’s commitment to improving livelihoods and expanding economic opportunities across the country, particularly in the northern region. “I can assure you that the President loves the North and the President will work for the North,” he said.
 
Earlier, the Director-General of Arewa for Asiwaju and former Jigawa State Governor, Abubakar Badaru, pledged that the organisation would sustain its mobilisation efforts until Tinubu secured another term in office. Badaru said the group planned to engage religious leaders, including Muslim and Christian clerics, as well as other prominent Nigerians, to canvass support for the Tinubu-Shettima ticket ahead of the 2027 presidential election.
 
Against the backdrop of the same faith ticket of the ruling party, CSMN said the consensus initiative, known as the Christian Political Consensus Project, was designed to encourage dialogue among the candidates, identify areas of agreement and explore ways of harmonising their political interests in the interest of Nigeria.
 
Addressing a press conference virtually on Monday, Chairman, CSMN Governing Council, Elder Sunday Oibe, urged the candidates to prioritise national interest over personal ambition. He said the 2027 presidential election presented an opportunity for Christians to contribute to the emergence of ethical leadership capable of addressing the country’s security and governance challenges.
 
Oibe, however, stressed that the initiative was not intended to compel any candidate to withdraw from the race or surrender his or her constitutional right to contest the presidency. He urged the candidates to approach the proposed consultations with open minds, present their visions for the country and consider areas where their political platforms and support bases could be harmonised.
 
The organisation said the process required patience, mutual respect, credible criteria and a willingness to negotiate, noting that only one candidate could emerge as president after the election.
 
Explaining its political assessment of the emerging electoral landscape, GMI’s National Coordinator, Samaila Musa, in a statement, argued that Tinubu’s political alliances across the country could give the ruling party an advantage in the contest.
 
The group’s analysis focused on the South-West, South-East, North-West, North-East and North-Central regions, highlighting potential competition among opposition figures, including former Vice President, Atiku Abubakar; former Anambra State Governor, Peter Obi, as well as former Kano State Governor, Rabiu Kwankwaso.
 
Musa said: “Following a nationwide evaluation of political dynamics across all six geopolitical zones, GMI highlights that political realities on the ground coupled with a divided opposition make an opposition victory mathematically impossible.
 
“Political reality shows that Atiku stands no chance of winning a single state in the Southern region. The South-East, which previously served as a major voting bloc for Atiku, is now firmly under the influence of Obi and South-East Governors, who predominantly support President Tinubu’s second-term bid, completely wiping out former opposition strongholds in the zone. Meanwhile, the entire South-West remains locked down for the President.
 
“North-West Vote Split: In the North-West, Kwankwaso is set to capture substantial votes in Kano and Jigawa, as well as a reasonable outing in Katsina. Rather than forming a united front, these votes will be siphoned directly from Atiku’s traditional base, severely diluting the opposition’s voting power.
 
“North-East Battleground: The North-East will be another key battleground featuring a split vote between sitting Vice President Shettima, the region’s governors (almost all of whom belong to the ruling party), and Atiku. Vote splits in the North Central regions will definitely prevent the opposition from emerging as the winner of the election.
 
“History has proven that Northern votes alone cannot produce a President. Former President Muhammadu Buhari attempted this strategy multiple times without success; it was only after forging a solid alliance with Tinubu and securing Southern support that he won in 2015. Without Southern states, any presidential bid remains dead on arrival.”
 
Alluding to this, an All Progressives Congress (APC) chieftain, Dr Iliyasu Musa Kwankwaso, has dismissed the prospect of Atiku swaying Northern voters through ethnic or regional sentiments ahead of the election. Kwankwaso, Director of Finance at the Hadejia Jama’are River Basin Development Authority, said on Monday that voters in the North were increasingly looking beyond ethnic identity in deciding which candidate to support.
 
He argued that the region’s electorate had become more conscious of governance, development and tangible benefits, insisting that northern voters could no longer be assumed to support a candidate simply because of his geographical or ethnic background. “The North has no candidate for 2027 because the two candidates from the North are not of the people. Ethno-political card will not favour them,” he said.
 
The APC chieftain maintained that candidates seeking northern votes would have to demonstrate their commitment to the region’s development rather than rely on identity politics to mobilise support. He also cited ongoing federal projects across the North as evidence of what he described as President Tinubu’s commitment to the region, arguing that the administration’s development initiatives would feature prominently in voters’ assessment of the government ahead of the election.

Meanwhile, the All Progressives Congress (APC) Presidential Campaign Council has criticised Atiku for addressing President Tinubu by his first name, describing it as disrespectful to the office of the President. However, the council has urged its leaders, spokespersons, members and support groups to continue to accord Atiku the respect and courtesies due to him as a former vice president and presidential candidate.
 
In a statement issued on Monday, the council’s spokesperson, Dele Alake, said Atiku, the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), had fallen short of the standard of decorum expected of a former vice president and a presidential aspirant.
 
The council expressed concern over Atiku’s decision to address Tinubu as “Bola”, arguing that his public conduct should reflect the dignity expected of someone who had occupied the country’s second-highest political office and was seeking its highest office. It also accused Atiku of allowing political animosity and ambition to influence his public conduct and utterances since his defeat in the last presidential election.
 
Despite its criticism of Atiku, the council said the APC’s campaign ahead of the 2027 general election would focus on issues affecting Nigerians rather than personal exchanges with opposition figures. It said the party would highlight its programmes, showcase Tinubu’s achievements in office and explain how his administration intended to translate ongoing reforms into prosperity as he seeks a second term.
 
In another development, the 2027 presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, has attracted attention on social media after making his debut appearance on a TikTok Live session, where viewers sent him virtual gifts. Obi joined the live broadcast hosted by the Emir Sirdam Show on Sunday night, interacting with young Nigerians as viewers engaged with him through comments, digital gifts, and animated visual effects.
 
The former Anambra governor appeared surprised by the stream of virtual gifts, which reportedly included flowers, lions and universe tokens, while filters placed different caps, glasses and moustaches on his face. Reacting to the TikTok experience, Obi said with a smile, “I am wondering what is happening to me this evening.”
 
The remark came as the show’s host explained the virtual gifts and visual effects appearing on the screen, adding a light-hearted moment to the interaction. The broadcast reportedly attracted thousands of concurrent viewers and millions of likes, while clips from the session generated discussions across social media platforms.
 
Obi’s appearance highlights the growing use of digital platforms by politicians to engage with younger audiences beyond traditional campaign rallies, television interviews and press conferences. TikTok Live allows users to interact with hosts in real time through comments, virtual gifts and visual effects, offering public figures an informal platform to engage with their audiences.
 
The former Anambra State governor said he would ensure Nigerians across the six geopolitical zones felt included in the country’s governance, regardless of ethnic or regional background. Obi argued that those seeking to divide Nigerians were working against the country’s progress, stressing the need for balanced development across all regions.
 
He said his proposed administration would prioritise direct engagement with citizens to address concerns about marginalisation and ensure that people from different parts of the country felt represented. “That’s why I said that I will be president of Nigeria. I will ensure that I visit every state annually,” Obi said.
 
He also pledged to spend his holidays in different states across the six geopolitical zones, saying he would make himself accessible to Nigerians rather than govern from a distance. Obi said the proposed town hall meetings would give citizens opportunities to understand government decisions, policies, and ongoing projects.