Chieftain of All Progressives Congress, Kayode Oladele, has disagreed with former Director-General of the Voice of Nigeria, Osita Okechukwu, over his prediction that the 2027 presidential election could result in a runoff, insisting that President Bola Tinubu has the political structures and nationwide alliances to secure victory in the first ballot.

Oladele, a former member of the House of Representatives and chairman of the planning committee of the Ogun State APC Presidential and Governorship Campaign Council, said Okechukwu had overestimated the electoral strength of a fragmented opposition while underestimating the ruling party’s nationwide structures and northern political alliances.

Oladele said he respected Okechukwu’s contributions to the APC but disagreed with his assessment of the likely outcome of the next presidential election.

“I have tremendous respect for my Mr Osita Okechukwu and I acknowledge his contributions to our great party. However, I fundamentally disagree with his prediction of a presidential runoff.

“Where he sees a second ballot, I see President Tinubu winning convincingly on the first. His prediction appears to give the opposition credit for political unity it has yet to demonstrate while underestimating the electoral strength of the APC.”

Oladele also challenged the assumption that former Vice-President Atiku Abubakar would automatically secure substantial northern support because of his origin .

“Atiku may come from the North, but he does not control the North. More importantly, he does not command the extraordinary sentimental following that the late former President Muhammadu Buhari enjoyed,” he said.

According to him, Buhari had developed a strong emotional connection with millions of northern voters, particularly at the grassroots, which Atiku had not demonstrated a similar capacity to replicate.

He said it would be a political miscalculation to assume that Atiku could inherit Buhari’s electoral support simply because both politicians came from the same region.

“Buhari enjoyed a unique emotional connection with millions of ordinary northern voters, particularly at the grassroots. Atiku has contested several presidential elections without demonstrating the same capacity to inspire such exceptional political loyalty.”

“Atiku is not Buhari. Northern identity does not automatically confer northern electoral dominance,” Oladele said.

The APC chieftain argued that Tinubu was well positioned to retain a substantial share of Buhari’s traditional northern support, citing the political networks and alliances that helped the former president win the 2015 and 2019 elections.

He noted that Tinubu had played a major role in building the coalition that brought Buhari to power in 2015 and maintained that the relationships established during that period remained relevant to the APC.

“Many of those political actors remain within the APC. Tinubu understands northern politics and has maintained longstanding relationships across the region.”

Oladele added that Tinubu could consolidate his support in the South while retaining a significant numbers in the North, a combination he described as a credible route to victory in 2027.

On former Labour Party presidential candidate Peter Obi, Oladele argued that changes in political affiliation could affect the enthusiasm that characterised his 2023 presidential campaign.

He said some of Obi’s young supporters might have become less enthusiastic about his political ambition because of what he described as inconsistency in his choice of political platforms.

“His movement from one political platform to another raises legitimate questions about ideological commitment, political stability and the sustainability of the movement that brought him national prominence,” he said.

Oladele added that Obi’s support in 2023 should not be assumed to remain unchanged in the next election, arguing that political loyalty depended on consistency, credibility and public confidence.

He also rejected suggestions that opposition parties could defeat Tinubu by combining the votes secured by their candidates in the 2023 presidential election.

According to him, political alliances do not automatically translate into a unified voting bloc, as individual voters retain the freedom to make their choices at the polls.

“An opposition coalition is not necessarily an electoral coalition. Votes are not transferable political assets that can simply be added together on a calculator,” he said.

He added that negotiations among opposition leaders would not necessarily guarantee that their supporters would vote for a common candidate in 2027.

Oladele also defended the Tinubu administration’s economic reforms and infrastructure projects, arguing that Okechukwu’s prediction did not sufficiently account for the government’s policies and initiatives.

He listed increased revenue allocations to state and local governments, the Nigerian Education Loan Fund, the Nigerian Consumer Credit Corporation, the new national minimum wage and the Presidential Compressed Natural Gas Initiative among the administration’s interventions.

He also cited the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry road project as examples of infrastructure development under the administration.

Oladele said the government had taken difficult decisions to address Nigeria’s economic and structural challenges, adding that opposition parties needed to present credible alternatives rather than assume that public dissatisfaction would automatically result in an electoral victory.

On power rotation, he agreed with Okechukwu that zoning remained important to political stability but argued that the South should complete its turn after eight years of northern leadership under Buhari.

“I agree with my big brother on the importance of power rotation. However, my agreement with him on zoning does not extend to his prediction of a presidential runoff.

“They are two entirely different political questions,” he said.
Oladele also referred to Section 134 of the Constitution, which sets out the requirements for winning a presidential election and the circumstances under which a further election may be required. ”

He said a runoff was not an automatic consequence of a competitive election but depended on whether a candidate met the constitutional requirements for victory.
Despite his confidence in

Tinubu’s chances, Oladele urged APC members not to become complacent, calling for sustained grassroots mobilisation and effective communication of the administration’s policies and achievements.

“President Tinubu has the political experience, nationwide alliances and organisational structures to consolidate substantial northern support while strengthening his electoral position across the South.

“Mr Okechukwu may be preparing for a second ballot, but I believe that the APC is preparing for victory on the first,” he said.