Ahead of 2027: Future of opposition uncertain as politicians begin realignment 

• Over 51 lawmakers decamp from LP, APGA, NNPP to APC, without vacating seats
• Expect more ‘realignment of forces’ next year, Chekwas Okorie says
• Oppositions in talks to form mega party in 2025 – Okunniyi

The season of mass defection from one party to another is fast heating up, with lawmakers, especially from the opposition parties already testing the waters.

The cross-carpeting exercise, however, has far-reaching implications on the survival of opposition parties, rules of democracy and laws of the land.

To date, no fewer than 51 lawmakers at both the federal and state levels have decamped from the Labour Party, New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP), and the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), into either the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) or the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

Just last week, four other members of the Labour Party in the House of Representatives dumped the party for APC. The lawmakers are Chinedu Okere (Owerri Municipal/Owerri North/Owerri West Constituency), Mathew Donatus (Kaura Federal Constituency of Kaduna), Akiba Bassey (Calabar Municipal/Odukpani Constituency), and Esosa Iyawe (Oredo Federal Constituency of Edo).

Earlier, on July 24, 2024, the lawmaker representing Imo East Senatorial District, Senator Francis Ezenwa Onyewuchi dumped the Labour Party for APC.

In his defection letter, Onyewuchi cited the crisis within the Labour Party as the reason for his resignation.

The exodus started in March this year with six members of the Enugu State House of Assembly defecting to the PDP.

The lawmakers attributed their defections to the existence of irreconcilable division, an ongoing crisis within the Labour Party at the national level, and across all the state chapters.

Similarly, the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP) has also had its fair share of losses to the ruling APC. One of the key defections recorded was that of the former national chairman of the NNPP, Professor Ahmed Rufa’i Alkali, who cross-carpeted into APC on October 30, 2023, with many other chieftains of the party.

Prominent among those that moved with him are the Kaduna State governorship candidate, Senator Sulaiman Hunkuyi; Benue State governorship candidate, Prof. Bem Angwe; Yobe governorship candidate, Garba  Umar; ex-Gombe Commissioner for Women Affairs, Binta Bello; Gombe senatorial candidate, Abigail Albashi; Kaduna State NNPP chairman, Nuhu Audu; ex-Kaduna PDP chairman and the immediate past secretary of the NNPP (North West), Dr Isa Shika and Kaduna senatorial candidate, Mikaih Takwat and others.

The defection was hinged on the crisis between the presidential candidate and leader of NNPP and former governor of Kano State, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and Dr Boniface Aniebonam, who founded the party 22 years ago.

On August 30, 2023, Salihu Tanko-Yakasai, a former governorship candidate of the Peoples Redemption Party (PRP) in Kano State dumped the party for the APC

In a post on his verified X handle, Tanko-Yakasai stated that a former governor of Kano State and the current national chairman of the APC, Dr Ganduje, urged him to return to the party to help in “consolidating its gains.

Senator Halliru Dauda Jika was the Bauchi State governorship candidate of the NNPP in the 2023 election. He moved into APC shortly after the 2923 general polls.

Although the 1999 Constitution is very clear on the issue of serving legislators defecting to another platform, Section 68(1)(g) of the Constitution provides that a member of the Senate or the House of Representatives shall vacate his seat in the House of which he is a member if being a person whose election to the House was sponsored by a political party, he becomes a member of another political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected, provided that his membership of the latter political party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or faction by one of which he was previously sponsored.

Section 109 of the Constitution also provides that a member of a House of Assembly shall vacate his seat in the House if: being a person whose election to the House of Assembly was sponsored by a political party, he becomes a member of any other political party before the expiration of the period for which that House was elected: Provided that his membership of the latter political party is not as a result of a division in the political party of which he was previously a member or of a merger of two or more political parties or factions by one of which he was previously sponsored.

Sections 68(2) and 109(2) of the Constitution further provide that the President of the Senate or the Speaker of the House of Representatives, as the case may be, shall give effect to the provisions of subsection (1) of this section, so however that the President of the Senate or the Speaker of the House of Representatives or a member shall first present evidence satisfactory to the House concerned that any of the provisions of that subsection has become applicable in respect of that member.”

However, there are insinuations that the reasons presented by the defectors are not strong enough, just as the Labour Party itself had called on the lawmakers to either step down or face the law.

The party also described the legislators’ move as a betrayal of its values and the trust of the electorate.

In a statement signed by its National Publicity Secretary, Obiora Ifoh, the party denounced the defections as unconstitutional, pointing to Section 68(g) of the 1999 Constitution, which mandates that lawmakers elected on a party’s platform must relinquish their seats if they defect without just cause, such as a division within the party.

The party emphasised that it was not facing any internal crisis that could justify the defections, noting that it has resolved past issues through internal and legal mechanisms.

“The Labour Party is at peace. There is no constitutional protection for these lawmakers to abandon the party along with its mandate,” the statement declared.

Meanwhile, the Director General, National Consultative Front (NCFront), Wale Okunniyi, said the problem facing opposition parties in Nigeria is not peculiar to the Labour Party and that people should stop pointing accusing fingers at the ruling party because in a democratic contest, poaching members from the opposition is allowed and it is also within the right of the ruling party to use whatever it has to defend the interests of those they poached.

He said what is important now is for the remaining members of the Labour Party and those interested in salvaging Nigeria to ensure that the ongoing consultation on the planned fusion of all opposition platforms into one stone entity that will confront and defeat APC in 2027 succeeds.

Okunniyi further disclosed that the remaining part of LP is strongly involved in the negotiation, which is billed to materialise next year, stressing that Nigerians should not dissipate too much energy on the defected lawmakers. He stated that “this will not change anything.”

Also, founding National Chairman of the All Progressives Grand Alliance (APGA), Chekwas Okorie, assured that the opposition political parties would not go under, advising Nigerians not to bother much about the gale of defections into the ruling APC.

He said: “I can tell you that what is going on is far from what you have described. I talked about the realignment of forces that will happen in the second quarter of next year. What I mean is that you will see a situation where those who made the PDP of today, will abandon the PDP for one person who thinks that he is emperor of the party and he will discover that he is a general without troops.

“You will discover that those who claimed they made Tinubu to be president will abandon APC for a particular section of the country and they will discover suddenly that the region alone cannot make a president.

“So, when all these movements start, they are going to coalesce somewhere else. That is why I said the consideration of 2027 is not what you are seeing now, and I know that the meetings and conspiracies have already begun.

“I am giving the Nigerian public up to the second quarter of next year for it to begin to manifest. If you think the opposition has surrendered, it is not true,” Okorie said.

A Chieftain of PDP, David Meregini, noted that the LP was a “Special Purpose Vehicle” for some politicians during the elections, stressing that “those who benefitted from it are returning to their original political parties.”

A lawyer, Lakpene Yusuf Bida, however, stated that Nigerians calling on INEC to declare the seats of the defected politicians vacant need to be educated.

“Democracy goes along with the attainment of justice, which can only be given out by the Court which is its backbone. But in the Nigeria situation, this is relegated to the background as the Court is never thought of at the beginning unless it gets out of hand then they run to it for salvation.

“Whenever there are political problems, most politicians forget the importance and necessity of application of section 1(1) and section 6(1) of the 1999 CFRN which are the most critical provisions that can stabilise where there is about to be political somersault.

“The INEC is a product of the Electoral Act 2022, which draws its powers from section 153(1)(f) of the 1999 CFRN. Under this Act there is no clear provision that states that INEC has expressed powers to declare any vacant seat in the event there is defection by a politician from one party to another party and where the provisions of section 109(1)(g) provision of the 1999 CFRN is breached.

“By the provisions of section 6(1) of the CFRN and after followership of the provisions of section 36(1) of the 1999 CFRN, a clear and unequivocal verdict must be given by the appropriate Court of the land.

“Therefore, to declare any defector’s seat vacant due process of adjudication must be carried out. It is then that the Court ought to confer a full right on INEC to fill the vacant seat through another round of elections. To call for INEC to declare these seats as vacant is a tall order that cannot be possible in the present circumstances without due legal process by the Court.”