Twenty-three years after five governors of the defunct Alliance for Democracy (AD) lost their states despite the party’s decision to support former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s re-election bid on the platform of the PeoplesDemocratic Party (PDP), a related question is confronting the All Progressives Congress (APC) with Nyesom Wike’s Rainbow Coalition ahead of the 2027 general election. SEYE OLUMIDE examines the implications of the development.

The fate of five Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors who lost their South-West states to the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 2003 after backing former President Olusegun Obasanjo’s re-election is looming over the political calculations surrounding FCT Minister Nyesom Wike’s Rainbow Coalition ahead of the 2027 elections.

The argument is whether politicians can support President Bola Tinubu’s re-election while backing candidates outside the APC for governorship and legislative positions.

The question has gained prominence following the disagreement between APC governors under the Progressive Governors Forum (PGF) and Wike’s coalition, which has continued to attract politicians dissatisfied with the ruling party’s internal arrangements.

The circumstances are different from those of 2003, but the political tension over presidential support and control of state and legislative structures has created a parallel that is now central to the 2027 calculations.

In 2003, the AD, then the dominant political party in the South-West, did not field a presidential candidate and supported Obasanjo, the PDP candidate, for the presidency.

However, the party’s governors contested the governorship elections on the AD platform.

Of the six governors elected on the AD platform in 1999, only Bola Tinubu of Lagos retained his position in 2003. The PDP won Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo and Ekiti, effectively ending the AD’s dominance of the region.

The party also suffered substantial losses in the National Assembly.

The current APC situation is different because the party controls the Federal Government and has an incumbent president seeking re-election on its platform. Unlike the AD in 2003, the APC has a presidential candidate whose campaign is expected to operate alongside those of its governors and legislative candidates.

The new fault line
THE disagreement between the APC governors and Wike became more pronounced on September 14, when the PGF declared that APC governors would not participate in or support any political arrangement capable of undermining Tinubu’s re-election, weakening the APC or adversely affecting its candidates.

PGF Chairman and Imo State Governor, Hope Uzodimma, said the governors’ campaign structures would be devoted to APC candidates at all levels.

The position placed the governors against any arrangement in which Tinubu receives presidential support from politicians campaigning against APC candidates in governorship or legislative elections.
Wike’s position is different.

The FCT minister has maintained that his Rainbow Coalition is intended to mobilise support for Tinubu’s re-election without becoming an APC structure.

He has also argued that support for the president does not require politicians to support APC candidates at other levels.

The position creates a political arrangement in which a politician could support Tinubu for president while contesting against an APC candidate for governor, senator, member of the House of Representatives or state Assembly.

For the APC governors, such an arrangement raises concerns about the unity of the party’s campaign structures. For Wike, it reflects the possibility of voters and politicians making different choices on different ballots.

The 2003 election remains relevant because it demonstrated the difficulty of separating presidential alliances from the struggle for control of states and legislatures.

The AD’s decision to support Obasanjo did not prevent the party from contesting governorship elections in the South-West. The arrangement therefore placed the party in a position where it supported a presidential candidate from another party while seeking to retain control of the states.

The outcome was significant. The PDP defeated the AD in five of the six South-West states controlled by the party after the 1999 elections. Lagos remained under Tinubu and the AD. The AD also lost substantial representation in the National Assembly.

However, the outcome was influenced by several factors beyond the party’s presidential arrangement, including the strength of the PDP, incumbency, internal divisions and the broader political environment surrounding the 2003 elections.

The experience therefore does not establish that supporting another party’s presidential candidate automatically leads to the loss of state governments.

What it demonstrated was that presidential alliances and state-level political contests can produce different electoral consequences.

A different 2027 equation
The APC’s position in 2027 differs substantially from that of the AD in 2003.

The APC controls the presidency, has governors across several states and maintains a national political structure. Tinubu is seeking re-election on the APC platform.

The issue facing the party is therefore not the absence of a presidential candidate, but the possibility that support for the president could become separated from support for APC candidates at other levels.

Wike’s position is based on the proposition that such separation is possible.

He has pointed to voting patterns in previous elections, including the 2023 elections, in which voters in some states supported candidates from different parties for presidential, National Assembly and governorship positions.

The governors, however, are insisting on a unified campaign structure in which support for Tinubu is accompanied by support for APC candidates.

The difference has turned the question of ticket splitting into an organisational issue for the ruling party.

The disagreement has also extended to the control of legislative structures.

On September 22, Wike named Uzodimma, Kwara State Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq and Ogun State Governor Dapo Abiodun among governors he said were opposed to his coalition.

Wike also linked the disagreement to the interests of some governors in the composition and leadership of the National Assembly after the 2027 elections.

He alleged that some governors had influenced APC primaries to secure tickets for candidates they could rely on after the election. Those allegations have not been independently established.

The issue, however, illustrates the wider importance of the National Assembly contests to the political calculations surrounding 2027.

Control of the Senate and House of Representatives seats will affect the balance of power within the ruling party and the composition of the next National Assembly. This is perhaps the main reason APC governors are kicking against Wike’s Rainbow Coalition.

A source within the party expressed concern that Tinubu may be re-elected but lose influence over the next National Assembly if Wike’s arrangement eventually works out.

Consequently, disagreements over candidates at the legislative level are closely connected to the broader contest for political influence after the election.

Aggrieved politicians
Another factor is the movement of politicians who have become dissatisfied with the APC’s internal processes, especially in the last primaries.

Primary elections inevitably produce both successful and unsuccessful aspirants. Where defeated aspirants have established political structures and local followership, their movement to other platforms can affect the distribution of political support.

Wike’s coalition provides an avenue through which some politicians who lost in the APC primaries are now contesting against APC candidates at state and legislative levels while maintaining support for Tinubu at the presidential level.

That possibility is at the heart of the disagreement between the coalition and the APC governors.

For the governors, allowing competing political structures to emerge within the same presidential campaign could weaken the party’s candidates.

For politicians dissatisfied with the APC, however, the arrangement creates an opportunity to remain politically active without necessarily opposing the president.

Can presidential and state votes be separated? The central electoral question is whether voters will maintain the same party preference across the different positions on the ballot.

Nigeria’s elections have produced several instances of split-ticket voting, where voters support candidates from different parties for different offices.

Wike has used such voting patterns to support his argument that backing Tinubu does not necessarily translate into support for every APC candidate.

The APC governors’ position is that the party’s organisational structures should campaign collectively for its candidates.

The two positions therefore reflect different approaches to how political alliances can function during a general election.

The outcome will depend on how voters respond to the competing campaign structures, the strength of individual candidates and the effectiveness of party organisations at the state and grassroots levels.

The development is also taking place against the background of wider political realignment ahead of 2027.

Opposition politicians and groups are exploring alliances, while some politicians within the APC are also assessing their options following disputes over primaries and other internal matters.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar is the presidential candidate of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), while Peter Obi and other opposition figures are also involved in efforts to build a broader political platform ahead of the election.

A member of the APC, Alhaji Liadi Tella, said reports of contacts between politicians across party lines could not be dismissed, but said such developments should not bother APC governors, nor did he see them affecting President Tinubu’s re-election next year.

He also said individual reports of discussions should not be treated as evidence of formal agreements unless confirmed by the parties involved.

The more immediate issue for the APC is whether internal disagreements will result in the movement of established politicians and their supporters to rival platforms.

Another APC member, who refused to disclose his identity, said: “The dispute between the APC governors and Wike’s coalition is not limited to presidential support. It extends to control of party tickets, governorship contests, National Assembly seats and grassroots structures.”

According to him, “For the APC governors, maintaining control of these structures is central to the party’s ability to campaign as a united organisation.

“For Wike and politicians aligned with his coalition, the objective is to create a political network capable of supporting Tinubu while allowing members to pursue interests outside the APC structure at other levels.”

The 2003 AD experience provides a historical reference point because it showed that control of a region does not automatically guarantee the survival of political structures when competing alliances, internal divisions and electoral contests intersect.

He noted that the circumstances surrounding the AD in 2003 and the APC in 2027 are substantially different.

He said: “The AD was a regional opposition party without control of the Federal Government, while the APC is the governing party at the centre and has an incumbent president seeking another term. Even at that, President Tinubu cannot just fold his hands and allow the altercation between Wike and the governors to continue unattended.”

The 2027 test
For the APC, the immediate challenge is maintaining cohesion among its governors, candidates, lawmakers, party structures and grassroots organisations while pursuing Tinubu’s re-election.

For Wike’s coalition, the challenge is sustaining a political network capable of supporting Tinubu while accommodating politicians who may contest against APC candidates.

The PGF has made clear that APC governors will campaign for APC candidates at all levels. Wike, on the other hand, has maintained that support for Tinubu does not require support for the APC or its candidates in other contests.

The resulting contest places the relationship between presidential politics and state-level political interests at the centre of the 2027 elections.

The 2003 AD experience provides a historical reference, but not a template for 2027. The outcome of the current political realignment will depend on the management of party primaries, the movement of aggrieved politicians, the strength of competing political structures and the choices voters make across the different levels of the election.

Meanwhile, APC National Chairman, Nentawe Yilwatda, has assured that the issue will be resolved as soon as the President returns to Nigeria.

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