Three factors may shape the battle to succeed Governor Seyi Makinde in Oyo State next year: his bid to install a successor on the platform of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), the All Progressives Congress’s (APC) efforts to resolve its internal crisis, and whether emerging opposition forces can disrupt what could otherwise become a two-horse contest, ROTIMI AGBOLUAJE reports.

The dynamics shaping the 2027 Oyo State governorship election are likely to be markedly different from those of previous contests, with Governor Seyi Makinde facing the succession challenge that has eluded administrations in the state.

Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, no Oyo governor has successfully handed over power to a preferred successor. Former Governor Abiola Ajimobi came closest in 2019 after securing a second term, but his preferred candidate, Adebayo Adelabu, lost the election to Makinde. Makinde himself has acknowledged the pattern.

Makinde now faces the same test under different circumstances. As he prepares to leave office in 2027 and pursue the presidency on the APM platform, he is backing former Commissioner for Finance, Abimbola “Bimbo” Adekanmbi, as the party’s governorship candidate.

Makinde was adopted as APM’s presidential candidate in May. The contest will therefore test whether Makinde can transfer enough of his political structure and goodwill to a successor while pursuing a national political ambition.

Unlike the 2023 election, when Makinde’s re-election under the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) largely defined the contest, the 2027 race presents a different equation. Makinde cannot seek another term, while his political camp has moved its succession project to APM.

On the other side, APC, which has been out of power in Oyo for eight years, is seeking to regain the state. Senator Sharafadeen Alli is the party’s governorship candidate, with Adesoji Adedeji as his running mate. The party has also begun a reconciliation drive following its primary.

Between the two principal camps are the PDP, African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Labour Party (LP), Social Democratic Party (SDP), Accord and other platforms seeking to establish themselves.

At the centre of the contest are three questions: how much of Makinde’s political capital can be transferred to Adekanmbi; whether APC can turn reconciliation into a functioning campaign structure; and whether alternative parties can convert visibility into votes across the state’s 33 local government areas.

For APC, the immediate challenge is no longer the selection of a governorship candidate. Alli has emerged as the party’s candidate and has called on those who contested the primary to regard themselves as stakeholders rather than opponents. The party has also commenced reconciliation efforts.

But the real test is whether the influential interests that competed for the ticket will deploy their structures behind Alli.

The primary competing ambitions exposed within the party are particularly centred on former Minister of Power Adebayo Adelabu and the 2023 governorship candidate, Teslim Folarin. Adelabu has indicated that he would not challenge the outcome in court, removing one potential source of prolonged litigation.

Political reconciliation, however, requires more than accepting the outcome of a primary; it requires the transfer of political machinery to the candidate.

APC possesses a national governing platform, federal visibility and an established presence in Oyo. Yet those advantages will not automatically translate into a governorship campaign if the party’s various tendencies fail to work together.

For Alli, therefore, the immediate task is to turn reconciliation into an operational arrangement covering the three senatorial districts, 33 local government areas and polling units.

APC will also have to decide how much of its campaign should be a referendum on Makinde’s eight years in office and how much should be a presentation of Alli’s own programme, especially as Makinde will not be on the ballot.

The more unusual political development in Oyo is Makinde’s decision to use APM as the vehicle for his succession project.

APM adopted Adekanmbi as its consensus governorship candidate in May. Adekanmbi has positioned himself as a continuity candidate, promising to build on what he describes as the Makinde administration’s achievements. He has also rejected suggestions that he would be a political stooge of the outgoing governor, insisting that his loyalty would be to the people of the state if elected.

That creates a central issue: whether Makinde can transfer his political structure without transferring the office itself.

Makinde has twice won the governorship, in 2019 and 2023, and has built a political network extending beyond the traditional PDP structure. His supporters are now attempting to make that network the foundation of APM’s governorship campaign.

In September, Makinde received APC defectors into APM at a political event in Ibadan, including supporters led by Ajiboye Sangogade, an ally of Adelabu.

But the defections also raise a practical question: how much of Makinde’s personal political capital can Adekanmbi inherit?

Adekanmbi must establish his own identity while remaining sufficiently close to the incumbent to benefit from the continuity argument. That balancing act could become one of the defining features of his campaign.

If the election becomes a referendum on the incumbent’s record, APM can present Adekanmbi as the candidate of continuity. If it centres more on individual candidates and their programmes, Adekanmbi will have to demonstrate an independent political identity and governing capacity.

The PDP’s situation is another complication. Makinde won two governorship elections under the party, yet the political structure associated with his succession is now operating through APM. The PDP is therefore facing the challenge of defining its relevance after the departure of the state’s most electorally successful figure in recent years.

For PDP stakeholders, the question is whether the party can rebuild itself as an independent force or whether its relevance will continue to be measured against the Makinde camp.

A strong PDP showing in legislative contests could preserve its relevance even if it does not dominate the governorship race, while continued fragmentation could shift attention towards other platforms.

Then comes the political legacy and traditional influence of Oba Rashidi Ladoja, the Olubadan of Ibadanland.

Ladoja occupies an unusual position in Oyo politics. He is a former governor and senator who now heads the traditional institution in Ibadan, the state’s largest political and population centre. His political history and relationships with politicians across generations make his name relevant to the calculations of the 2027 contenders.

But his role should not be reduced to the question of whom he will endorse.

Ladoja has repeatedly said that politicians may associate themselves with his name but that ultimately the electorate will determine who governs the state. In May, he said candidates’ antecedents and popularity, rather than his personal influence, would determine the outcome.

His significance may therefore lie less in a formal endorsement than in his relationships, access, historical networks and position as a political elder and traditional ruler.

The political geography of Oyo also makes the Ladoja factor relevant. Ibadan accounts for a substantial part of the state’s political weight, but no serious governorship campaign can afford to treat Oyo, Ogbomoso, Oke-Ogun and Ibarapa as peripheral.

The emergence of alternative platforms could make the 2027 contest more complex than the traditional APC-PDP rivalry suggests. Among those seeking to exploit that space is broadcaster and media entrepreneur, Oriyomi Hamzat, who entered the governorship race on the Accord platform after building a substantial public profile through his media activities.

Hamzat declared his ambition in January and subsequently obtained Accord’s governorship nomination and expression-of-interest forms. He was announced as the party’s candidate after its May primary.

His significance lies in the fact that his political appeal is being built differently from that of established party politicians. His campaign draws on his visibility as a broadcaster and direct relationship with sections of the public, giving him an opportunity to test whether personal following and media reach can be converted into statewide electoral organisation.

His candidacy, however, has been caught in Accord’s wider leadership crisis. Olakunle Busari has approached the Federal High Court in Ibadan seeking the removal of Hamzat’s name from INEC’s records and recognition of his own claim to the ticket.

Until the legal and organisational questions are resolved, Hamzat’s candidacy remains an important but unsettled element of the Oyo equation.

The same applies to ADC, NDC, Labour Party, SDP and other emerging platforms. Their significance will depend less on the number of candidates they produce than on their ability to build credible organisations capable of translating public attention into votes.

Stakeholders react
APC’s reconciliation efforts remain a key uncertainty, with some party members questioning whether the exercise has produced genuine cohesion ahead of the election.

A member of the party from Ward 6, Ibadan South-East, Akinleye Akinkunmi Segun Bishop, called for President Bola Tinubu’s intervention, arguing that the major tendencies within the party had yet to fully close ranks.

“The reality on ground is that there is no reconciliation. The effort made is just a decoy and has not achieved any genuine cohesion. The major tendencies within the party are yet to accept Alli as the collective candidate,” he said.

Bishop said the lack of visible unity was also affecting the party’s mobilisation for Tinubu in the state, which he said was being conducted in separate camps. He urged the President to bring the major actors and aspirants together to resolve their differences.

Another APC governorship aspirant, Akeem Agbaje, was more categorical, saying: “No reconciliation took place.”

Former Minister and APC aspirant, Adebayo Shittu, said he had withdrawn from what he described as the party’s “phoney process”, citing dissatisfaction with the handling of the nomination forms and governorship primary.

But APC member Yusuff Alaje declined to draw a conclusion on the state of the party, saying developments were still unfolding.

On the APM side, Oyo State Commissioner for Information, Prince Dotun Oyelade, said Adekanmbi would have to establish his own political identity rather than simply inherit Makinde’s political relationships.

He, however, argued that Adekanmbi could legitimately benefit from the governor’s record in office.

“Governor Seyi Makinde said from the onset that Mr Bimbo Adekanmbi should neither inherit his friends nor enemies; that he should be his own man,” Oyelade said, adding that Adekanmbi’s political relationships and record in government would be central to his campaign.

The emergence of other candidates could also widen the contest beyond APC and APM. Action Alliance candidate, Adebayo Titilola-Sodo, said Oyo voters had alternatives beyond the two leading parties, while former Nigerian Ambassador to the Philippines, Dr Yemi Farounbi, identified Accord and ADC as parties capable of affecting the race.

Farounbi also highlighted the potential influence of the Olubadan institution, although he noted that Ladoja’s declaration of support for all candidates could alter assumptions about how the traditional institution might influence voting patterns.

A former Chief of Staff to the late Governor Abiola Ajimobi, Prof Gbade Ojo, however, argued that Ibadan voters remained independent in their political choices.

“The Olubadan Palace influence is as strong in Oyo politics. Ibadan people are republican, not subservient to the point that voters will defer to the will of the Olubadan. Ibadan people have independent minds of their own,” he said.

Ojo nevertheless identified APC and APM as the two principal contenders in the 2027 governorship race.