The Chief Executive Officer (CEO), Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr. Muda Yusuf, has said Nigeria is unlikely to suffer any significant economic setback from the decision by the United States Government to impose a 12.5 per cent tariff on imports from Nigeria, arguing that the country’s export structure and trading patterns substantially shield it from the full impact of the new measures.

  He however, warned that the development underscores a growing wave of global protectionism that should force Nigeria to accelerate export diversification, strengthen manufacturing competitiveness and deepen regional trade integration.

 In a statement, the CPPE boss reviewed the recent decision by the United States to impose the tariff on imports from Nigeria, alongside similar measures affecting about 60 trading partners.

 According to him, the latest tariff regime represents a continuation of the reciprocal tariff policy introduced during the Trump administration, although it is now being implemented under a different legal framework.

 He explained that following the judicial invalidation of the earlier reciprocal tariffs, the current measures appear to have been restructured under Section 301 of the U.S. Trade Act, with allegations relating to forced labour providing the statutory basis for their implementation.

 He further noted that although the legal foundation has changed, the underlying policy objective remains essentially the same, to protect U.S. domestic industries, strengthen American manufacturing competitiveness and advance broader U.S. trade and economic interests.

  From Nigeria’s perspective, however, he said the economic implications are unlikely to be substantial.

  Breaking it down, he explained that Nigeria’s exports to the United States are overwhelmingly dominated by crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other petroleum products, which account for more than 80 per cent of the country’s merchandise exports to the U.S.

  These products, he noted, have been exempted from the new tariff measures, leaving the bulk of Nigeria’s exports unaffected.

  The CPPE boss further observed that the United States is not Nigeria’s largest export destination.

  Quoting Nigeria’s Q1 2026 merchandise trade statistics, he said total exports stood at approximately ₦21.6 trillion during the period, with exports to the United States accounting for only 5.56 per cent.

  India ranked as Nigeria’s largest export destination with 13.09 per cent of total exports, followed by France with 9.29 per cent, the Netherlands with 9.22 per cent and Spain with 7.68 per cent.

  The United States ranked fifth among Nigeria’s export markets during the quarter.

  According to him, these trade realities significantly moderate Nigeria’s exposure to the new U.S. tariff regime.

  While acknowledging that some non-oil exporters, particularly those in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors, could experience reduced competitiveness in the American market, he maintained that the overall impact on Nigeria’s export earnings, foreign exchange receipts and macroeconomic performance would be modest.

  “It is essentially a question of materiality,” he said, explaining that the products affected account for only a small share of Nigeria’s total exports, while the country’s dominant export category to the United States remains outside the scope of the tariffs.

  Beyond the immediate impact, he said the latest U.S. action reflects a broader structural shift in global trade policy; arguing that the move reinforces the growing trend towards protectionism, industrial policy and the strategic deployment of trade measures to advance domestic economic objectives.

 Against this backdrop, he urged Nigeria to intensify efforts towards export diversification, enhance manufacturing competitiveness, increase domestic value addition and maximise opportunities under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA).

  He also called on the Federal Government to sustain reforms aimed at strengthening labour standards, improving supply chain transparency and engaging proactively with the United States through diplomatic and trade channels to obtain greater clarity on the implementation of the new measures and minimise any adverse consequences for affected exporters.

  Overall, he maintained that while the new U.S. tariffs have generated understandable concern, their direct economic implications for Nigeria should not be overstated.

 According to him, the country’s greater challenge lies not in the immediate loss of export opportunities, but in navigating an increasingly fragmented and protectionist global trading environment.