The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun State is facing an internal battle ahead of the 2027 governorship election. The candidature of the party flagbearer, Senator Solomon Adeola, is being challenged from within, with attendant implications ahead of the gubernatorial polls, AZEEZ OLORUNLOMERU reports.

With less than five months to the governorship election, the APC is confronting a dispute that could test its capacity to manage internal dissent ahead of the poll.

Hunye, one of the aspirants, is challenging the process through which Adeola emerged as the party’s flagbearer. He has gone ahead to unveil his campaign plans and running mate, Abayomi Odunowo, signalling his determination to pursue the contest despite the party’s position.

At the heart of his grievance is the affirmation exercise through which Adeola was adopted by consensus in the presence of other aspirants, including Abiodun Akinlade and Gboyega Nasir Isiaka.

Hunye alleged that, despite having thousands of his supporters at the exercise, he was recorded as having scored zero votes. He also pointed out that he had paid the APC’s N50 million non-refundable nomination fee like other aspirants.

“If they had been smart enough, they would have scored one. Are they saying I was not there to exercise my franchise?” he asked.

The APC, however, has closed ranks around Adeola. On August 23, the Ogun State chapter reaffirmed him as its candidate and dismissed claims suggesting that the ticket remained open.

The state chairman, Yemi Sanusi, said Adeola secured 304,055 votes out of 305,287 accredited voters at the governorship primary. He added that the names of Adeola and his running mate, Mrs Kudirat Abiodun Adegunwa-Balogun, had been submitted to the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

The party’s national leadership has also rejected Hunye’s claim. Its National Secretary, Senator Surajudeen Ajibola Basiru, described the claim as unauthorised, saying Hunye was a suspended member of the party.

According to the APC, Hunye was suspended on April 7, 2026, following a petition from his ward in Ipokia Local Government Area.

Hunye has rejected the party’s position, insisting that the process that produced Adeola is before the court and should be allowed to run its course.

Beyond the legal arguments, the dispute carries political implications for the APC, which has maintained a strong grip on Ogun politics. An unresolved challenge from within could create room for opposition parties to consolidate their own campaigns and exploit discontent among aggrieved party members.

For now, Adeola has continued with his campaign while Hunye pursues his legal challenge and mobilises his supporters. The outcome of the dispute could determine whether the APC enters the 2027 contest as a united incumbent party or one weakened by an unresolved internal battle.

Adeola’s emergence was the product of months of political manoeuvring around the longstanding agitation that Ogun West should produce the next governor.

Since the creation of Ogun State, the senatorial district has never produced a governor. The demand for power rotation has therefore become one of the most enduring themes in the state’s politics.

In April, the APC’s strategic caucus endorsed Adeola as its consensus candidate at a meeting attended by Abiodun, former governors Segun Osoba, Gbenga Daniel and Ibikunle Amosun, among other influential figures.

Amosun’s presence and endorsement were significant. The former governor remains an influential political actor whose network cuts across sections of the state. Yet, despite backing Adeola at the critical stage of his emergence, he has maintained a relatively low public profile as the Yayi-Hunye dispute has intensified.

The same applies to the influence of other major actors. The endorsement brought together politicians who have not always shared the same political interests, but maintaining that coalition as the election approaches may prove more difficult than assembling it for the initial endorsement.

The APC’s room for manoeuvre is also constrained by the Electoral Act 2026. Under Section 87, consensus is permissible but requires the written consent of all cleared aspirants. Where such consent is unavailable, the party must conduct a direct primary.

The provision makes reconciliation particularly important. The endorsement of Adeola by the party leadership cannot, by itself, settle the matter if a cleared aspirant refuses to withdraw.

The APC must therefore prevent the dispute from consuming political energy that should be directed towards building a statewide coalition.

The zonal challenge 
Again, the party will also contend with the zonal issue. Ogun has three senatorial districts, West, Central and East, and each presents a different political calculation.

Adeola’s strongest advantage is Ogun West. The district comprises Ado-Odo/Ota, Yewa North, Yewa South, Imeko-Afon, and Ipokia, and has a compelling case for power rotation.

But the West alone cannot deliver the governorship. Ogun Central and Ogun East have 15 local governments between them, making statewide coalition-building indispensable.

Adeola must consequently turn his Ogun West candidacy into a statewide proposition and convince voters beyond the district that his emergence represents an inclusive political arrangement rather than sectional advancement.

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) has a strong contender in Ladi Adebutu, who came close to defeating Governor Dapo Abiodun in 2023.

Abiodun polled 276,298 votes against Adebutu’s 262,383, while the ADC’s Biyi Otegbeye scored 94,754. The APC won, but the margin between Abiodun and Adebutu was only 13,915 votes. More significantly, the combined votes of the two principal opposition candidates exceeded the APC’s total.

There is no guarantee that opposition votes will combine in 2027. However, the figures demonstrate that the APC’s victory was not based on an unassailable electoral advantage.

Adebutu will seek to build on his 2023 performance, particularly in Ogun Central and other areas where the PDP retains a political structure. The APC, meanwhile, will have to prevent the opposition from consolidating into a single anti-APC bloc.

If Ogun West provides Adeola with his strongest political advantage and Ogun Central offers the opposition an opportunity, Ogun East could determine the intensity of the contest.

Ogun East comprises nine local governments and includes the Ijebu and Remo blocs. It is also the political base of Abiodun and Daniel.

The 2023 result offers a warning to the APC. Adebutu won seven of the nine local governments in the district, while Abiodun carried only Ijebu North and Ijebu Ode. The governor also lost Ikenne, his local government.

Daniel’s role is particularly significant. His decades-long political network in Ijebu and Remo has afforded him considerable influence, which cannot be easily disregarded. Although he was one of the prominent figures associated with the process that produced Adeola, his relationship with Abiodun has since become strained, particularly following Abiodun’s declaration as the winner of the Ogun East Senatorial District primary election.

Abiodun secured 75,550 of the 99,503 votes cast to emerge victorious in the exercise. Daniel had withdrawn from the race prior to the election.

The question for the APC is whether those differences can be managed sufficiently to keep its political machinery together. Adeola will need the cooperation of the different tendencies within the party if he is to make meaningful gains in Ogun East.

Opposition looking for an opening
The APC’s internal difficulties are creating an opportunity for the opposition, even though the opposition itself remains fragmented.

The PDP remains the most established challenger, while the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Labour Party and other platforms are positioning themselves for the election. Some are also dealing with internal disagreements, including disputes over tickets.

The opposition does not necessarily need to defeat the APC in every political calculation. Its immediate opportunity is to exploit divisions within the ruling party and prevent it from reproducing the broad coalition that delivered victory in 2023.

That makes APC reconciliation more urgent. A divided ruling party could make the election competitive even without a particularly strong opposition structure.

The most important question, however, is what the prolonged political contest means for the people of Ogun State.

A member of the African Democratic Congress in Ogun Central, Akinwunmi Bolade, observed that the danger of an early and consuming succession battle is that governance could gradually become subordinate to politics.

“When political actors begin positioning for the next administration long before the election, decisions on appointments, projects, resource allocation and policy direction can increasingly be interpreted through the lens of political loyalty, which is already happening,” he said.

According to him, political stability matters for a state with a large industrial base, expanding urban centres and significant infrastructure and employment challenges.

“Businesses require predictability. Investors need confidence that government policies will not be disrupted by political succession battles. Communities need roads, water, healthcare, schools and other public services to remain priorities regardless of which political faction is gaining or losing ground,” he said.

Another citizen of the state from Ogun East, Jimoh Opeoluwa, warned that the APC’s internal crisis could have consequences beyond party headquarters and campaign meetings if it begins to distract the government from delivering on its mandate.

Opeoluwa, who is into private business, said there was also a danger of governance becoming overly focused on political patronage as politicians sought to consolidate structures ahead of 2027.

“Such an atmosphere could deepen public cynicism if citizens begin to perceive government decisions as instruments for securing political advantage rather than improving their welfare,” he added.

Timothy Dorhor, a transport operator with an interest in the state’s politics, said the opposition had an opportunity to make governance the central issue of the election.

“Rather than relying solely on the APC’s internal disagreements, opposition candidates can ask voters whether the incumbent administration has sufficiently addressed their economic and social concerns, whether infrastructure has improved, whether jobs and opportunities have expanded and whether the benefits of Ogun’s growing economic profile are reaching ordinary residents,” he said.

That could make the 2027 election more than a contest over zoning and political succession.

For the APC, the immediate task is to contain the Yayi-Hunye dispute and build a coalition across Ogun West, Central and East.

For Adeola, securing the party’s ticket may ultimately prove easier than securing the confidence of the entire state.

The APC still possesses the advantages of incumbency, political structures and control of the state. But if its internal disagreements harden into factional warfare, the opposition may not need to be exceptionally strong to make the election competitive.

For Ogun voters, the larger issue should be whether the political contest produces a government capable of delivering development, protecting livelihoods and sustaining the state’s economic potential.

The 2027 election may therefore be decided not merely by who controls the APC machinery, but by which political camp succeeds in convincing voters that its political arrangements can translate into effective governance.

For now, Ogun APC remains in control. But its path to 2027 is anything but settled.