Get Guardian on GoogleNigeria’s ambition to attract about $500 billion in additional energy investment, reach 277 gigawatts of installed power capacity by 2060, and create 840,000 jobs by 2050 faces a critical workforce-planning challenge.A new research report warned that the country has not yet shown whether its skills base and institutions can deliver the targets.
The report, ‘Can Nigeria Deliver Its Energy Transition Plan? Nigeria Energy Transition Capability Baseline 2026’, published by Energy Transition Africa (ETA), identified gaps in publicly available evidence linking projected energy investments to the number, distribution and capabilities of workers and institutions required to implement them.The findings raise concerns about Nigeria’s preparedness to translate its energy transition ambitions into sustainable employment, reliable electricity supply and new industrial opportunities.
Although the country has engineers, technicians, financiers, training institutions, and electricity regulators performing critical functions, the report said no consolidated national assessment shows how many professionals the transition will require, which occupations will be needed, where they must be deployed, and whether existing systems can meet the demand.The Executive Director of ETA and research lead, Vincent Egoro, said: “Nigeria has a plan for the megawatts and a projection for the jobs. But where is the workforce plan connecting the two?”
He said the central issue was not whether Nigeria had skilled professionals, but whether the country knew it had enough people with the right competencies, in the right locations and at the right time to deliver its energy plans.The investment, electricity capacity and employment figures are projections contained in Nigeria’s updated Energy Transition and Investment Plan, published in November 2024.
One of the report’s key findings concerns the workforce needed to operate and maintain mini grids as Nigeria expands decentralised electricity systems to underserved communities.ETA found that publicly available employment figures could not provide a reliable estimate of the personnel required to sustain mini-grid operations over time because existing measures combine construction, operational and central support jobs.
This makes it difficult to determine how many technicians are needed to maintain installations, where they would be sourced, and whether workforce planning is keeping pace with infrastructure deployment.The report cautioned that the evidence gap does not establish that mini-grid operators lack maintenance personnel. Instead, it highlights the lack of sufficiently detailed public workforce information to assess long-term operational needs.
The issue affects the sustainability of investments in decentralised electricity, particularly in communities where reliable maintenance services are essential to keeping power infrastructure functional.The report noted that without credible estimates of future technical staffing requirements, policymakers and project developers may struggle to align training, recruitment and deployment with the expansion of electricity infrastructure.
The report also examined the institutional demands created by the decentralisation of electricity regulation following the Electricity Act 2023.By July 2026, 16 states had completed the transition to state-level electricity regulation, assuming responsibilities involving tariff determination, licensing, consumer protection, technical oversight and electricity market supervision.
However, ETA found insufficient comparable public evidence on the specialist staffing, workloads, staff retention and institutional performance of state electricity regulators to determine whether their capabilities were keeping pace with their expanding responsibilities.The report said that as more states assume regulatory responsibilities, the availability of adequately trained personnel and effective institutional systems will become increasingly important to developing functioning subnational electricity markets.
ETA examined 16 major energy transition requirements across six capability categories, producing 96 evidence-assessment cells.While none met the report’s standard for being fully measured against capability adequacy, the finding does not mean Nigeria failed 96 tests or lacks the necessary skills and institutions.
It means the available public evidence was insufficient to establish whether the country’s capabilities were adequate across the requirements examined.The study identified existing technical training systems, professional certification arrangements, regulatory mechanisms and workforce information systems that could contribute to a more comprehensive assessment.
It also traced Nigeria’s electricity-sector manpower studies back to the 1960s, highlighting domestic experience that could support improved workforce planning.The central challenge, according to the report, is connecting existing capabilities and information systems to the specific labour requirements, investment commitments and implementation timelines of the energy transition.
The report recommended a coordinated national assessment of workforce and institutional capabilities, beginning with the power sector.It stated that the proposed framework would connect existing government, industry, training, regulatory and labour-market information with the actual requirements of energy projects.
It would also identify the occupations needed, the number of workers required, their geographical distribution, and deployment timelines, while highlighting shortages and institutional constraints that require intervention.Rather than establishing another government agency or adopting a blanket national training target, ETA advocates better coordination and use of existing institutions and information systems.
