No fewer than 36.3 million Nigerians are facing Crisis-level or worse food insecurity, even as prices of key staples including maize, millet and sorghum recorded fresh increases in August 2026, according to the latest Food Security Monitor published by the Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa (AGRA).

The report, which tracks food security, commodity prices and market developments across selected African countries, put Nigeria’s food-insecure population at 36,289,939, representing 16.65 per cent of the population covered by the assessment.

Nigeria recorded the largest absolute number of people experiencing IPC/CH Phase 3 or worse among the 17 countries monitored, far ahead of South Sudan with 7.83 million, Kenya with 4.12 million and Mozambique with 3.52 million.

The report, however, said Nigeria’s August figure remained unchanged from July, suggesting that there was no significant month-on-month improvement in the country’s food security situation.

It attributed persistent food insecurity in West Africa to a combination of conflict, insecurity, displacement, high food prices and weather-related production challenges.

In Nigeria, the situation is particularly pronounced in conflict-affected northern areas, where insecurity continues to disrupt agricultural production, livelihoods, market access and humanitarian assistance.

The food security pressure is also reflected in commodity markets.

AGRA reported that the national average price of white maize in Nigeria rose 5.2 per cent month-on-month to N355.29 per kilogramme in August.

The commodity was also 9.3 per cent more expensive than three months earlier and 19.3 per cent higher than six months earlier.

Despite the recent increases, maize prices remained 10.9 per cent below their level a year earlier, indicating that supplies were still better than during the corresponding period of 2025.

The report said Nigeria’s maize price movement contrasted with several other West African markets where prices generally declined.

At the international-dollar equivalent, Nigeria’s maize price stood at about $265 per metric tonne in August, up seven per cent from July, but still among the lower-priced maize markets monitored by AGRA.

Other staples also recorded divergent movements. The national average price of milled rice declined 6.9 per cent month-on-month to N616.94/kg, while prices were down 18.4 per cent compared with six months earlier and 31.8 per cent below their year-earlier level.

AGRA said the decline suggested improved supply conditions and reduced market pressure, with Nigeria recording the lowest rice price among the West African markets monitored in dollar terms.

However, millet prices moved in the opposite direction, rising 2.1 per cent month-on-month to N474.88/kg. The price was 15.5 per cent higher than three months earlier and 19.7 per cent above the six-month level.

Unlike most neighbouring markets, Nigeria’s millet price was also 2.5 per cent higher year-on-year, suggesting stronger market pressure and tighter supplies.

Sorghum recorded an even sharper increase. The national average price of white sorghum rose 6.6 per cent in August to N439.10/kg, with prices 10.3 per cent higher than three months earlier and 32.6 per cent above the six-month level.

Year-on-year, sorghum prices were up 13.8 per cent, which AGRA said pointed to stronger domestic market pressures and relatively tighter supply conditions.

The developments come against a backdrop of rising global food prices. AGRA said the FAO Food Price Index increased 1.9 per cent from July to 133.3 points in August, with sugar, cereals, dairy, meat and vegetable oils all recording increases. Global cereal prices rose 2.2 per cent during the month.

The outlook for Nigeria and the wider region remains challenging, with AGRA warning that variable rainfall, localised moisture deficits, conflict, displacement and market disruptions could continue to affect food production and access.

It also noted that a developing El Niño event could heighten climate-related risks, while drier-than-normal conditions are anticipated in parts of central Nigeria, potentially affecting crop performance later in the agricultural season.

AGRA said the combination of climate shocks, insecurity, economic pressures and displacement makes early preparedness, climate adaptation and resilience-building critical to improving food security across the continent.