Nigeria’s inflation cooled in September, offering a glimmer of relief for households and businesses battered by months of rising costs. Headline inflation slowed to 14.63 per cent from 15.39 per cent in August, driven by a 1.55 per cent month-on-month drop in food prices.

Yet for families in Lagos, the story is starkly different: food inflation surged to 34.40 per cent, underscoring the uneven burden of living costs across the country and the persistent strain on urban households.

The September rate is 0.76 percentage points lower than the previous month and 6.35 percentage points below the 20.98 per cent recorded in September 2025, according to the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) yesterday. It is the fourth consecutive monthly decline, following the first drop in June, and the lowest rate since the NBS changed its CPI methodology in January 2025.

However, the report showed that the moderation in inflation has not yet translated into uniform relief across the country. Food inflation remained elevated at 19.59 per cent year-on-year, while Lagos recorded the highest state-level food inflation rate at 34.40 per cent. On a month-on-month basis, headline inflation slowed sharply to 0.06 per cent in September from 0.71 per cent in August, indicating that the average price level increased at a much slower pace during the month.

The CPI, which measures changes in the prices of goods and services households consume, rose marginally from 146.30 in August to 146.38 in September.

Despite the slowdown, the figures underline the distinction between falling inflation and falling prices. While the rate of price increases has moderated, the report does not indicate that the general price level has returned to previous levels.

Food inflation, one of the most consequential components of household expenditure, stood at 19.59 per cent year-on-year in September. That is marginally higher than the 19.57 per cent recorded in August, but lower than the 20.16 per cent in the corresponding month of 2025.

More significantly, food inflation declined by 1.55 per cent month-on-month, reversing the 1.02 per cent increase recorded in August.

The NBS attributed the monthly decline to changes in the prices of several food items, including local short-grain rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, eggs, onions, palm oil, green beans, Irish potatoes, okra, fresh tomatoes, dried green peas and plantain.

The decline suggested that food prices eased across a range of important household staples during the month, although the annual inflation rate indicates that food costs remain substantially higher than a year earlier.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages remained the largest driver of headline inflation, contributing 5.85 percentage points, ahead of restaurants and accommodation services (1.89) and transport (1.56).

The report also put the average yearly food inflation rate for the 12 months ending September 2026 at 15.72 per cent, compared with 28.37 per cent recorded in September 2025.

A breakdown of inflation across states reveals significant disparities in food price movements, with Lagos recording the highest year-on-year food inflation at 34.40 per cent. Imo State followed with 33.79 per cent, while Ondo recorded 31.49 per cent.

At the other end of the scale, Taraba recorded a negative year-on-year food inflation rate of 7.47 per cent, followed by Yobe at negative 0.37 per cent. Borno recorded 2.18 per cent.

The figures highlighted the uneven distribution of food price pressures across the country, with households in some states continuing to face steep increases even as national inflation moderates.

On a month-on-month basis, Imo recorded the highest food inflation at 5.15 per cent, followed by Ondo at 4.46 per cent and Oyo at 3.82 per cent.

In contrast, Adamawa recorded a decline of 13.84 per cent, Kano 11.01 per cent and Bauchi 10.21 per cent. The state-level figures suggest that the national decline in food inflation masks substantial differences in local price movements.

While headline and food inflation moderated, core inflation moved in the opposite direction monthly.

Core inflation, which excludes volatile agricultural produce and energy prices, stood at 12.95 per cent year-on-year in September, down from 22.11 per cent in September 2025 and 13.29 per cent in August.

However, the month-on-month core inflation rate rose to 1.11 per cent from negative 0.06 per cent in August, indicating renewed price pressures in the underlying basket of goods and services.

The average yearly core inflation rate for the 12 months ending September 2026 stood at 16.54 per cent, compared with 25.68 per cent a year earlier.

The contrasting movements in headline and core inflation point to a more complicated price environment than the headline figure alone suggests, as the monthly rise in core inflation indicates that price pressures persist in parts of the economy.

Welcoming the moderation in inflation, the Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), Dr Muda Yusuf, called for further interest rate cuts following the decline in headline inflation to 14.63 per cent in September 2026, warning that rising energy costs and persistent food inflation could undermine the gains recorded.

In a policy brief on the September inflation report, Yusuf said the 76-basis-point decline from 15.39 per cent in August strengthened the case for further monetary easing and improved the prospects for investment and economic recovery.

However, he cautioned that the moderation in headline inflation masked continuing pressures on households and businesses, particularly as annual food inflation remained high at 19.59 per cent, while monthly energy inflation accelerated sharply to 5.38 per cent.

He said the figures show progress in macroeconomic stabilisation but stressed that the gains remained fragile without measures to address structural constraints in food production, energy supply and distribution.

According to him, core inflation also moderated from 13.29 per cent in August to 12.95 per cent in September, while FX’s relative stability helped curb imported inflation and improve business planning.

He argued that the easing price pressures provided grounds for a gradual reduction in interest rates, given the high cost of credit and its effects on investment, working capital and productive capacity.

Yusuf said expensive borrowing had constrained manufacturing, agriculture, construction, distributive trade and micro, small and medium enterprises (MSMEs), adding that lower interest rates would improve access to finance and support private-sector investment.

He advised the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) to ensure that further monetary easing remained consistent with inflation expectations, exchange rate conditions and emerging energy-price risks.

On food prices, he warned that yearly food inflation of 19.59 per cent remains a major threat to household welfare, exceeding headline inflation by 4.96 percentage points. He said the disproportionate share of food in low-income households’ expenditure means persistent price increases would erode real incomes, deepen poverty risks and weaken consumption.

He added that as households devote more of their earnings to food, spending on manufactured goods, education, healthcare and other services would decline, further weakening demand and putting pressure on consumer-facing businesses.

He attributed the persistence of food inflation to insecurity in farming communities, inadequate rural infrastructure, high logistics costs, post-harvest losses and inefficient market connectivity.

According to him, these challenges require targeted supply-side interventions rather than continued reliance on monetary tightening to contain inflation.

Also identifying energy prices as a growing threat to price stability, he noted that monthly energy inflation rose from 0.36 per cent in August to 5.38 per cent in September, while year-on-year energy inflation stood at 10.85 per cent. He warned that higher petrol, diesel and gas prices could increase transportation, distribution and production costs, with knock-on effects on food prices and core inflation.