• Consumption Soars To 56.7 Million Litres Per Day
• Dangote Records 49% Supply Shortfall, As NNPC Refineries Remain Down

Nigeria’s struggle to attain domestic energy security is far from being overcome after a fresh data released by the Federal Government showed that the Dangote Refinery supplied less than half of the petrol it committed to providing for local consumption, even as Nigerians spent an estimated N21.8 trillion on Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) between October 2024 and October 2025.

The figures are contained in a new State of the Downstream Sector Fact Sheet released by the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) on Friday, which paints a gloomy picture of rising national consumption, inadequate local refining output, and a continued dependence on imports despite significant refinery investments.

According to the NMDPRA, the Dangote Petroleum Refinery achieved an average daily PMS supply of 18 million litres per day, falling short of the 35 million litres per day it earlier committed to meeting domestic demand.

This shortfall represents over 49 per cent of expected supply, leaving the national market heavily reliant on importation and contributing to high consumer pump prices across the country.

The regulator confirmed that throughout the months under review, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited’s (NNPC) four state-owned refineries did not supply a single litre of petrol, despite their combined nameplate capacities exceeding 400,000 barrels per day.

The breakdown of domestic supply showed that from September 2024 to October 2025, all PMS produced locally came solely from the Dangote Refinery.

In September 2024, the refinery supplied only three million litres per day, meeting just 6.86 per cent of the national requirement of 50 million litres per day. The following months witnessed notable fluctuations – supply rose to 10 million litres per day in October (19.33 per cent) and 18 million litres per day in November (36.82 per cent), before dropping sharply to nine million litres per day in December (18.67 per cent).

Output recovered significantly in early 2025, with the refinery supplying 19 million litres per day in January (37.56 per cent) and peaking at 25 million litres per day in February, equivalent to 49.04 per cent of the national requirement.

Thereafter, supply stabilised at moderate levels: 23 million litres per day in March (45.80 per cent), 22 million litres per day in April (43.06 per cent), and 18 million litres per day in both May and June.

A slight drop to 16.5 million litres per day was recorded in July, followed by a rebound to 19.8 million litres per day in August (39.52 per cent). By September and October 2025, the refinery supplied 17.6 million litres per day and 17.1 million litres per day respectively, representing around one-third of national demand.

The persistent shortfall in domestic supply stood in sharp contrast to Nigeria’s escalating PMS consumption as the data showed that petrol demand increased significantly over the same period, rising from 47.5 million litres per day in October 2024 to 56.7 million litres per day in October 2025, despite high pump prices and ongoing economic pressures.

In October 2024, Nigerians consumed 1.4 billion litres of petrol at an average pump price of N1,184 per litre, translating to N1.7 trillion in expenditure. By November, daily consumption had risen to 56 million litres per day, costing Nigerians an estimated N2 trillion based on the month’s NBS average of N1,200 per litre. The trend continued into December, when 52.3 million litres per day were consumed, amounting to N1.9 trillion in spending.

In January 2025, Nigerians burnt 51.1 million litres per day or 1.5 billion litres for the month, costing roughly N1.9 trillion at an average price of N1,250 per litre. February saw daily usage of 50.4 million litres, totalling 1.4 billion litres worth N1.7 trillion. In March, consumption climbed to 50.9 million litres per day, an equivalent of N1.9 trillion for the month.

The upward trend persisted in April, when Nigerians consumed 55.2 million litres per day, costing N2 trillion at a pump price of N1,239 per litre.

Although prices dipped slightly in May, consumption remained high at 54.4 million litres per day, amounting to 1.6 billion litres and costing N1.7 trillion.

In June, Nigerians used 48 million litres per day, translating into N1.4 trillion at an average price of N1,037 per litre. By July, consumption was 47.2 million litres per day, also amounting to N1.4 trillion. In August, usage rose again to 48.4 million litres per day, costing N1.4 trillion based on the NBS average of N955 per litre. September saw a drop to 43 million litres per day, costing N1.2 trillion, before a dramatic rise in October 2025, when consumption hit 56.7 million litres per day, costing N1.6 trillion.

While consumption soared, refinery performance remained abysmally low as the  NMDPRA fact sheet revealed that Nigeria’s installed refining capacity, including conventional and modular facilities stands at 1,125,000 barrels per day. Yet, actual utilisation averaged only 61.58 per cent from the first to the third quarter of 2025 due to technical challenges and crude supply shortages.

Only four refineries were active in the country as of October 2025: The Dangote Refinery, Aradel Energy, Edo Refinery, and Waltersmith Refinery, with a combined operational capacity of just 467,000 barrels per day.

In contrast, several government-owned refineries remained dormant despite substantial investments in rehabilitation. The Port Harcourt Refinery, comprising an old 60,000 barrels per day unit and a newly refurbished 150,000 barrels per day unit, is yet to resume commercial refining.

The Warri Refinery (125,000 barrels per day) and Kaduna Refinery (110,000 barrels per day) also remained idle.

To address long-term supply gaps, the NMDPRA disclosed that it has issued 47 Licences to Establish (LTEs) refinery projects since 2000, representing a potential future capacity of 1.75 million barrels per day.

The Guardian reports that a further 31 Licences to Construct (LTCs) have been granted for projects with a combined capacity of 1.23 million barrels per day. Three modular refineries, Waltersmith Train 2 (5,000 barrels per day), AIPCC (30,000 barrels per day), and Azikel (12,000 barrels per day) are currently under construction, with a total planned capacity of 47,000 barrels per day.