Managing Partner of Perchstone & Graeys, Dr Tolu Aderemi, has urged African leaders, the African Union (AU) and the African Development Bank (AfDB) to prioritise conflict prevention over trade-driven recovery strategies, warning that decades of trade-focused interventions in fragile states have failed to deliver lasting stability.

Aderemi spoke as keynote speaker at the Lady Justice Joyce Aluoch Moot Competition in Nairobi, organised by the United States International University-Africa in collaboration with Women in ADR Kenya.

He argued that trade initiatives, introduced without strong institutional and security frameworks, had repeatedly collapsed across conflict-affected regions.

The event, held in honour of retired International Criminal Court judge, Lady Justice Joyce Aluoch, attracted senior diplomatic and legal figures.

Including Somalia’s Ambassador to Kenya and Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office at Nairobi, Jabril Ibrahim Abdulle, as well as former Attorney General of Kenya, Prof Githu Muigai.

Speaking on the theme, “From Conflict to Consensus: Leveraging Trade to Transform Conflict-Affected Economies,” Aderemi cited Iraq, Libya, Somalia and Sudan as examples of policy failure, noting that in each case, trade initiatives were deployed without the institutional backbone required to sustain them.

Using Libya as a case study, he said fragmented governance and the absence of a unified security structure undermined all reconstruction efforts.

He maintained that trade has never independently rebuilt a fractured economy, describing it as a second-stage instrument that only succeeds after peace and institutional order have been secured.

Aderemi also highlighted structural challenges within Africa, noting that intra-African trade currently accounted for between 15 and 18 per cent of total trade, far below the over 60 per cent recorded within the European Union. While projections suggest the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) could add $450 billion to regional income by 2035, he cautioned that such gains remain unattainable amid persistent conflicts in the Sahel, eastern Democratic Republic of Congo and Sudan.