Former Minister of Sports and Youth Development, Solomon Dalung, has fired a political warning shot at President Bola Ahmed Tinubu following the outcome of the Osun governorship election, declaring that the result could have far-reaching consequences for the President’s 2027 calculations.

Dalung, while writing on his Facebook wall, said the Osun election should not be treated as an isolated governorship contest, arguing that the result could expose vulnerabilities in the political arithmetic the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) may be relying on ahead of the 2027 presidential election.

According to him, the biggest lesson from Osun is that political power, government machinery and elite mobilisation do not automatically translate into votes.

He said the result should force the political establishment to reconsider assumptions about Tinubu’s electoral strength in the Southwest.

“Forget what anyone will tell you that the President was neutral,” Dalung said, arguing that the political atmosphere surrounding the election inevitably made it a test of the strength of the President’s political base.

He noted that in the 2023 presidential election, Tinubu won the Southwest but did not secure the overwhelming regional numbers that might have been expected from the “one of our own” factor.

Rather, he said, Tinubu’s eventual victory depended heavily on the coalition he assembled beyond the Southwest, particularly in the North.

Dalung warned that the Osun outcome could therefore become politically significant if it reinforces the perception among politicians in other parts of the country that Tinubu cannot simply assume that his home region will deliver the numbers required for another presidential victory.

“That could become important in the North,” he said.

The former minister argued that presidential elections are ultimately determined by a delicate balance of regional expectations, alliances and votes.

“A candidate who needs one region to compensate for what another region cannot deliver must constantly maintain the confidence of both,” he said.

He warned that the political equation could become increasingly difficult if any major bloc begins to believe that it is carrying more of the electoral burden or that its importance is being taken for granted.

For Dalung, this is what makes the Osun result bigger than Osun.

“This is why I would not dismiss Osun as just another governorship election,” he said. “It is a small state election with potentially big political implications.”

He maintained that the election had delivered a blunt message to Nigeria’s political elite: political influence is not electoral ownership.

“The people of Osun have reminded everyone, including the most powerful politicians in the country, that political influence is not the same thing as electoral ownership,” Dalung said.

With 2027 already dominating political calculations across the country, the former minister said politicians should begin paying close attention to the emerging electoral signals.

“And if I were advising anyone preparing for 2027, I would be paying very close attention to that message,” he said.

“The mathematics of 2027 may already be beginning to reveal itself.”