As the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) maintains its stronghold in the North, Gombe State stands out as a subnational unit where the President Bola Ahmed Tinubu-led party has established clear dominance, largely due to leadership squabbles within the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the fractious African Democratic Congress (ADC), LEO SOBECHI reports.

Governor Muhammad Inuwa Yahaya of Gombe State heads into the 2027 general election with significant advantages. As Chairman of the North-East Governors’ Forum (NEGF) and Coordinator of the Renewed Hope Ambassadors in the region, the governor benefits from opposition parties’ inability to mount a credible challenge to his leadership.

The political drama that once erupted between Yahaya and his predecessor, Senator Danjuma Goje, over the control of the state APC during the closing years of President Muhammadu Buhari’s tenure has since subsided. Goje, widely regarded as a political godfather, has confined his influence largely to the Gombe South Senatorial District.

More critical to Yahaya’s dominance is the persistent infighting within the state chapters of ADC and the factional leadership crisis in the PDP. Coupled with the strategic groundwork laid by President Tinubu’s team, including the empowerment of state governors through the Renewed HopeAmbassadors, Yahaya has consolidated firm control over Gombe’s political landscape.

With opposition parties in disarray, the stage is set for Yahaya to execute his succession plan effectively and deliver maximum support for APC in February 2027.

However, APC insiders caution that success depends on Yahaya presenting a broadly acceptable candidate and on the possibility, however slim, of PDP and ADC resolving their internal disputes.

For now, a competitive challenge from the opposition appears unlikely. Within ADC, for example, Nafiu Bala Gombe’s claims to the party’s national chairmanship highlight the multiplicity of factions that continue to pull the party in different directions. Rather than capitalising on the PDP’s fractures, ADC has been unable to coalesce, leaving three distinct tendencies vying for influence without any immediate prospect of unity.

As it stands, Gombe State is shaping up as a near one-party arena, with APC firmly in command.

Notwithstanding the apparent unity within the APC around Governor Inuwa Yahaya, the two main opposition forces, PDP and ADC, are reportedly in talks aimed at forging a collaboration to reclaim Gombe from APC control, a stronghold PDP lost nearly eight years ago following a controversial governorship primary.

In the run-up to the 2019 general elections, Senator Ibrahim Dankwambo, then completing his constitutionally mandated two terms, had set his sights on the PDP presidential ticket. Investigations by The Guardian revealed that the party was considering a Dankwambo/Donald Duke ticket to challenge President Muhammadu Buhari’s bid for a second term. However, the return of former Vice President Atiku Abubakar to the PDP disrupted these plans.

Under pressure from Atiku’s camp to reconsider his presidential ambition, Dankwambo eventually stepped aside and was offered the PDP gubernatorial ticket as compensation, despite his earlier pledge not to contest the Gombe North Senatorial seat. Consequently, he endorsed Senator Usman Bayero Nafada, then representing Gombe North, as his preferred candidate for the PDP governorship nomination.

The move sparked discontent. DrJamilu Isiyaku Gwamna, the frontrunner in internal party straw polls, defected to the APC. Aligning with APC governorship candidate Inuwa Yahaya and Senator representing Gombe Central, Danjuma Goje, Gwamna helped rout the PDP, ensuring that not only the governor but all three senators elected in 2019 were from the APC.

Despite this setback, Dankwambo, who had emerged as the last PDP standard-bearer in 2015 after Buhari’s electoral wave, focused on rebuilding the party’s structures in the state. However, PDP efforts to redress the defections after the 2019 governorship contest proved futile. Gwamna, courted back to the PDP, was persuaded by both his Jekadafari constituents and Governor Yahaya to remain in the APC.

Depleted of high-profile political figures, the PDP had hoped that Gwamna’s popularity, bolstered by philanthropic initiatives, could both divide votes in Jekadafari and challenge APC’s dominance statewide. Yet, in line with the state’s tradition of governors serving two terms, Gwamna remained loyal to Governor Yahaya, contributing to the PDP’s second defeat in the 2023 general elections.

With just over a year to the 2027 elections, the outlook appears challenging for PDP and ADC in Gombe. The political landscape is increasingly shaped by the personalities and strategies each party brings to the governorship contest. The key issues and figures defining this race across the three parties are as follows:

APC: Incumbency vs. credibility challenge
While the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) enjoys the leverage of incumbency and Governor Inuwa Yahaya’s tight control, party faithful remain wary that the outgoing governor may repeat former Governor Ibrahim Dankwambo’s error of failing to back a popular candidate.

Expectedly, as the dominant party with a functional, statewide structure, APC has already attracted a flood of aspirants. Among those mentioned in Abuja and Gombe are: Minister of Transportation, Senator Saidu Ahmed Alkali; Chairman of the Nigerian Exchange Group (NGX), Umaru Kwairanga; state Attorney General and Commissioner for Justice, Dr Aminu Yuguda; Commissioner for Finance, Hon. Gambo Magaji; Akko federal constituency representative in the House of Representatives, Hon. Usman Bello; influential contractor and close ally of Governor Yahaya, Architect Inusa Yakubu Lubel; and Dr Jamilu Isiyaku Gwamna.

Of this group, Dr Gwamna, Senator Alkali, and Commissioner Magaji appear most likely to pursue the governorship seriously. However, unless Governor Yahaya seeks to repeat Dankwambo’s misstep of prioritising narrow interests, Magaji’s candidacy seems unlikely.

Though Senator Alkali claims backing from Abuja, APC stalwarts insist that electability and mass appeal must guide the selection of the party’s flagbearer. Among the aspirants, Dr Gwamna, former Managing Director of Kano Electricity Distribution Company (KEDCO) and Director-General of the Tinubu/Shettima 2023 presidential campaign in the state, emerged as a front-runner. His role in supporting Governor Yahaya’s victory over the PDP strengthens his position to retain the governorship for the APC.

Governor Yahaya’s commissioners, Attorney General Yuguda and Finance Commissioner Magaji, risk being seen as imposed candidates, a scenario that could provoke protest votes, as occurred in Nafada in 2019 when Dankwambo’s preferred candidate lost.

Current party dynamics suggest that Abuja has few reservations about Gwamna’s candidacy. Much, however, depends on Governor Yahaya’s preference for APC in the state and the zone: whether to back a struggling contender or a candidate with strong name recognition and public appeal, like Gwamna.

A close ally of Senator Goje, speaking to The Guardian in confidence, said, “It is only complacency that can make APC lose the governorship next year. APC remains the party to beat. Its structure is unmatched; no opposition can realistically challenge it in Gombe. The outcome depends on whom the governor supports, his commissioners or Sarduana Gombe, Isiyaku Gwamna. He should not repeat Dankwambo’s mistake.”

PDP: Exiled powerhouse
Rep Ali Isa JC
In what comes as a rehash of what happened to the party in 2019, all potential governorship aspirants in Gombe PDP are looking up to the leader, Senator Dankwambo. They include Ali Isa JC, who is currently representing Balanga/Billiri Federal Constituency. He is said to enjoy Dankwambo’s confidence that, if the election were to be held tomorrow, the Rep would fly the party’s flag.

Indicators of this likelihood centre on the fact that the member of the House of Representatives currently controls a little over 90 percent of the PDP delegate structure in the state. In a bid to maintain that strong hold on the party executives, Isa appointed them as Senior Legislative Aides, Legislative Assistants in the National Assembly.

Also, it was gathered that not less than 29 PDP stalwarts from Gombe State are serving as senior legislative assistants to the Speaker of the House of Assembly, who is in APC. Some PDP insiders in Gombe disclosed that most Local Government and ward executives are also SLAs and LAs serving under the APC-led government.

Said one embittered party chieftain, “As a result of this one man show, PDP now exists more on the lips of people. In reality, many of our key actors align more with APC. This perception has fueled the growing speculations that the PDP leadership is indirectly supporting APC.”

The commonly held impression in Gombe PDP is that, despite Ali Isa JC’s control of the party structure, the fact that he is a minority Muslim Fulani from Gombe South dims his chances.

With the electoral configuration of the state, for PDP to be competitive, its candidate should traditionally be a Muslim from Gombe North, where Muslims are dominant. Despite this obvious weak link, Isa JC’s closeness to Dankwambo, particularly the strong backing he enjoys, he is widely seen as the potential sole PDP candidate in Gombe State if the party survives its many cases in court to participate in the 2027 poll.

Abdulkadir Hammasale
AFTER losing the PDP ticket in 2019, Hammasale remains optimistic that 2027 will be his year. However, the scars from that contentious primary continue to shadow his ambitions for governorship. Some party faithful point to his perceived leadership weaknesses, limited financial resources, and lack of support from party leader Senator Ibrahim Hassan Dankwambo as potential hurdles to his aspiration.

Khamisu Mailantarki
An affable politician, Mailantarki nonetheless struggles with a negative public perception. His frequent moves across political parties have eroded grassroots support, with many observers interpreting his political peregrinations as signs of desperation to become governor.

Within Gombe, PDP under Senator Dankwambo maintains cautious optimism, partly fueled by hope that the Senator Ahmed Makarfi-led Caretaker Committee could be reactivated in time to prepare the party for the 2027 polls. Yet, the ongoing national leadership crisis, which has split the party into two camps, casts a significant shadow over these prospects.

The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) recently declared it would not accept PDP candidates until all internal disputes, particularly court matters, are resolved. Party chieftains with electoral ambitions now wonder whether the judiciary will conclude litigation before the primaries begin.

Amid this uncertainty, sources indicate that even Senator Dankwambo has hinted that PDP members might consider shifting to ADC or APC if the January 23 court sitting does not signal a timely resolution. Though he did not respond to calls, sources suggest that one of the three factions of Gombe ADC, led by lawyer Idris Hinna, has tentatively reserved the Gombe North senatorial ticket for Dankwambo.

The Hinna faction is reportedly willing to cede state and National Assembly tickets to PDP members open to joining ADC. With feelers suggesting that Talban Gombe, Dankwambo, and Rep. Ali Isa JC are engaging in backchannel talks with ADC, the notion that PDP has effectively gone into “sleeper mode” in Gombe State appears credible.

ADC: Unequally yoked bulls
The internal dynamics of Gombe ADC resemble three bulls unequally yoked, each facing a different direction. The party’s challenges revolve around three uncompromising camps, each led by ambitious politicians: former Senator Goje ally Muhammad Jibrin Barde, who lost the 2019 APC governorship ticket to Governor Inuwa Yahaya, Idris Hinna, former Minister of Transportation; and Prof. Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami, a former communications minister under President Buhari, who leads the third faction.

Driven by vaulting governorship ambitions, none of the factions is willing to yield or heed calls for compromise, undermining efforts to unify the party. This lack of cohesion has deprived the fledgling coalition of the solid organisational footing needed to mount an effective challenge in Gombe’s 2027 electoral contest.