By ODUN EDWARD

As campaigns for the 2027 general elections draw closer, all eyes are on Kwara State, where the political slogan that toppled the PDP in 2019, Otoge (enough is enough), is now facing its biggest test. Can the ruling APC sustain the patronage amid growing public dissatisfaction with governance, internal cracks in the party and political realignments? ODUN EDWARD reports.

Nearly eight years after the Otoge (enough is enough) movement overturned Kwara’s political order, the slogan that united a broad coalition against the state’s once-dominant political establishment is again shaping political conversations. This time, however, the question is no longer whether Otoge can dismantle an entrenched structure, but whether the movement that brought the All Progressives Congress (APC) to power in 2019 still possesses enough political capital to keep the party there in 2027.

As preparations for the next general election gather momentum, Kwara is entering another defining political moment. The ruling APC is facing internal tensions exposed by its recent primaries, while opposition parties are rebuilding, hoping that discontent within the governing party and widespread economic hardship could alter the state’s political equation.

The emerging contest has shifted beyond party supremacy to a broader assessment of governance.

Has Otoge fulfilled the promises that inspired thousands of Kwara citizens to embrace political change in 2019? Has the AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq administration delivered enough to secure another mandate for the APC? Or has the movement gradually lost the momentum that made it one of Nigeria’s most significant political revolutions?
The 2019 elections marked a turning point in Kwara politics. The APC-led coalition not only defeated the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) but also dismantled a political structure that had dominated the state for decades under former Senate President Bukola Saraki.

For many residents, the outcome represented a rejection of personalised politics and a demand for a more inclusive and accountable system of governance. Otoge succeeded because it brought together politicians, professionals, civil society groups, youth organisations and ordinary voters behind a common objective.
With political differences set aside, the movement formed a coalition that spanned the three senatorial districts and delivered one of the most decisive electoral victories in the state’s history.

But political victories often create expectations that are more difficult to sustain than the campaigns that produced them. After 2019, supporters expected the new administration not only to redistribute political power but also to deliver visible improvements in governance, transparency and public services.

The AbdulRazaq administration has highlighted infrastructure development, urban renewal, education reforms, healthcare interventions, youth empowerment programmes and improvements in public finance as evidence that the objectives of Otoge remain relevant.

The government points to road projects, the transformation of parts of Ilorin, improvements in public schools and health facilities, and reforms aimed at strengthening accountability. It argues that governance has become more institutional and less dependent on personal political influence.

However, political achievements are increasingly measured against citizens’ daily experiences. Across Kwara, as in other parts of the country, rising food prices, inflation, transport costs and declining purchasing power have become major concerns for voters.

Although many of these challenges are linked to national economic reforms, including fuel subsidy removal and foreign exchange changes, state governments are often judged by their ability to reduce the burden on citizens.

Consequently, conversations in markets, communities, universities and transport centres are gradually moving away from the political battles of 2019 towards issues such as employment, security, healthcare, education and the cost of living.

A graduate of the University of Ilorin, Ramota Kamal, said the development across the state, as painted by the government, represents a different political environment from the one that produced the Otoge victory.

“In 2019, many voters were united by a desire to remove an established political order. In 2027, performance and economic realities are likely to play a bigger role,” she said.

She also noted that the emergence of a new generation of voters could further reshape the contest. “Many young people eligible to vote in 2027 were either too young to participate in the 2019 election or had only recently joined the electorate.

“Unlike older voters who experienced the political dominance that Otoge sought to end, many younger voters are less influenced by historical rivalries and more concerned about jobs, economic opportunities and improved public services.

“For this group, the relevance of Otoge will depend on whether its promises have translated into tangible improvements in their lives. The movement remains a significant chapter in Kwara’s political history, but its electoral value in 2027 will depend on whether APC can convince voters that its original ideals are still reflected in governance,” she added.

Beyond governance and economic concerns, the ruling party must confront another major challenge: internal cohesion.

The coalition that delivered the historic Otoge victory was built on unity among diverse political interests. Today, that unity is being tested by disagreements arising from the party’s recent primaries.

The disputes, which affected the governorship, National Assembly and State Assembly contests, exposed divisions among influential stakeholders and revived grievances that had accumulated over previous elections.

Unlike earlier disagreements resolved quietly within party structures, the current crisis involves politicians with strong grassroots networks across Kwara Central, Kwara North and Kwara South.

Recognising the possible electoral consequences, the APC constituted a five-member reconciliation committee headed by retired Colonel AbdulWahab Ademola Lawal.

Other members include ACG Ahmed Abbas, Engr. Musa Yeketi, Dr (Mrs.) Oluwatoyin Opawoye and Hajia Kubura Kassum.

The committee has commenced consultations with aggrieved members across the state to rebuild confidence and prevent the disputes from damaging the party’s electoral prospects.

Speaking on the assignment, committee member Engr. Musa Yeketi described disagreements as a normal feature of politics but stressed that reconciliation was necessary for victory in 2027. He said the committee had visited several local government areas to listen to complaints arising from the primaries and other unresolved disputes.

However, a member of APC, who chose not to be named, warned that the success of the reconciliation process remains uncertain as unresolved grievances within ruling parties have often influenced election outcomes more than opposition campaigns.

He said that, should dissatisfied members remain unconvinced, “our party could face reduced mobilisation, internal sabotage or defections before the election,” adding that “the depth of dissatisfaction within the APC was further highlighted by the emergence of the G15 group, comprising serving and former federal lawmakers, senior party figures and other stakeholders.”

The G15, which played an active role in the Otoge Movement, rejected what it described as an “Abuja list” of candidates allegedly produced outside recognised party processes, insisting that fairness, inclusiveness and internal democracy, values associated with the Otoge movement, must remain central to the party.

The significance of the G15 goes beyond its criticism of the primaries. Many of those expressing concerns were among the key figures who helped build the coalition that defeated the Saraki political structure in 2019.

Their opposition has therefore raised questions about whether the broad alliance that powered Otoge can remain united for another electoral cycle.

Despite these challenges, the APC retains significant advantages ahead of 2027. As the governing party, it controls the machinery of government, has an established grassroots network and enjoys the benefit of incumbency.

If the reconciliation process succeeds, these advantages could prove critical during the election.

However, opposition parties are seeking to capitalise on the cracks within the ruling party.

The PDP, which lost control of the state in 2019 after years of dominance, has been rebuilding its structures across wards and local government areas.

Its governorship candidate, Sulaiman Bolakale Kawu, popularly known as Kale Kawu Agaka, has intensified consultations across the state, while his running mate, Cornelius Fawenu, has focused on grassroots mobilisation and voter engagement.

The candidate promised to recreate the momentum of the 2019 “Otoge” believing that the growing concerns over the cost of living, unemployment and insecurity could fuel public demand for change, similar to the sentiment that powered the “Otoge” slogan and ended decades of political dominance by the Saraki-led political structure in 2019.

The opposition party is also banking on discontent within the APC and ongoing political realignments ahead of the 2027 elections to rebuild its support base across the state’s three senatorial districts.

For the PDP, the challenge will be convincing voters that it has moved beyond the shortcomings that led to its rejection in 2019. The party will need to persuade Kwarans that it represents a fresh vision rather than a return to the political order they voted against seven years earlier.

The African Democratic Congress (ADC), strengthened by the emergence of a broader national opposition coalition, is also positioning itself as an alternative to both APC and PDP.

The party’s National Publicity Secretary, Bolaji Abdullahi, said the 2027 election would offer the people of Kwara an opportunity to reassess the direction of the state.

According to him, many residents are disappointed with the outcome of the political change promised by the Otoge movement and are searching for an alternative.

He argued that the APC would face difficulties defending its record, while the PDP still struggles with the political damage suffered after its defeat in 2019.

Abdullahi said ADC intends to build its campaign around three major issues: reducing the cost of living, addressing insecurity and creating employment opportunities for young people.

He maintained that voters would judge parties based on their ability to respond to these challenges rather than their past political achievements.

He asked, “Would the people return to the PDP they rejected in 2019 or remain with the APC, despite growing dissatisfaction with its performance? If the answer to both options is no, then the ADC presents itself as the alternative.”

For the Social Democratic Party (SDP), its National Secretary, Dr Olu Agunloye, said the party was strengthening its structures ahead of 2027 and preparing to receive new members from larger parties.

He argued that Kwarans now have an opportunity to consider alternatives after experiencing both APC and PDP administrations.

However, the opposition faces significant obstacles. None of the parties currently possesses the statewide structure, financial resources and electoral machinery that enabled APC to secure victories in 2019 and 2023.

The PDP, despite being the major opposition force, is still rebuilding after years of internal challenges and electoral setbacks.

According to APC member Rahman Jimmoh, while the party’s internal disagreements have created opportunities for opponents, no opposition party currently has the organisational strength required to defeat the APC without a united and credible alternative.

He, however, acknowledged that prolonged divisions within the ruling party could change the political calculations before the election.

Beyond party structures, the economy is expected to remain one of the defining issues of the 2027 campaign.

Rising inflation, unemployment and the high cost of living have reshaped voter expectations across Nigeria, including Kwara.

But the opposition insists that APC governments at both federal and state levels must take responsibility for the hardship facing citizens, while the ruling party will maintain that economic reforms require time before their benefits become fully visible.

Ultimately, the 2027 election may depend on how Kwarans balance political history, governance performance and economic realities.

For many voters, the central question may no longer be who defeated whom in 2019, but who can provide solutions to their current challenges.

A Political Science lecturer at the University of Ilorin, Dr Adewale Bakare, said the political dynamics in Kwara ahead of the 2027 elections appeared uncertain, adding that the outcome would ultimately be determined by voters through adequate political education.

“It will be decided by the voters. Voters with the right political education will, however, resolve the expected tussle. One thing is certain: the structures and strengths of the political parties have changed from what they used to be,” he said.

Nearly eight years after Otoge transformed Kwara’s political landscape, the movement faces its biggest test.

In 2019, it represented a rebellion against an established political order. Today, the APC that emerged from that movement is itself the establishment seeking another mandate.

Whether the Otoge legacy remains powerful enough to deliver another victory will depend on the party’s ability to resolve internal disputes, defend its record and convince an increasingly demanding electorate that the promise of change that inspired the movement is still alive.