Tinubu leads APC forces against opposition in Northwest ‘vote-bank’

Respected as the only geopolitical zone blessed with seven states with high voting population, Nigeria’s North-West has become the epicentre of political mind games. LEO SOBECHI and ADAMU ABUH, x-ray the emerging politics against the voting pattern of the 2023 poll.

The general thinking among partisan politicians is that the North-West geopolitical zone will determine the outcome of the next general elections in 2027. As such, that fact seems to be driving every political calculation in various platforms. In 2015, Asiwaju Bola Tinubu rode on that electoral reality to deliver retired General Muhammadu Buhari as Nigeria’s President.

In June 2022, the President joggled the opinion moulders in the zone to line up behind him as he jostled for the All Progressives Congress (APC) presidential ticket. That clever strategy paid off again in 2023, when against all odds the APC leader beat four other presidential gladiators, including a bonafide member of the zone, to clinch the Presidency.

But, in the light of the political activities and governance activities in the last two years, how easy would it be for the President to return a verdict of victory through excellence in ballot counts from the legendary vote-back?

The Northwest region boasts of seven states in addition to a mammoth population of possessors of Permanent Voters Cards (PVCs), which serves as an indicator of where the winning votes lie.

Keen watchers of Nigeria’s voter preferences maintain that the plethora of second term governors from the Northwest, particularly those that emerged on the APC, helped to turn things around for Asiwaju Tinubu in 2023. But, insiders claim that only a combination of political guile and clever strategic machination drew the then outgoing governors, including Mohammadu Abdulkadir Badaru, (Jigawa); Nasir el-Rufai, (Kaduna); Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje (Kano); Bello Masari, (Katsina); Senator Atiku Bagudu, (Kebbi); Dr Bello Matawalle, (Zamfara) to work for his eventual electoral triumph.

It was alleged that knowing of the ambivalent posture of the outgoing President Buhari, the former Lagos State governor met separately with the governors of Jigawa, Kaduna, Kebbi, Kano and Niger states, during which he urged the outgoing governors to work for his eventual emergence as APC standard with a promise that “if I win, we will work together.”

Mistaking the promise to work together as a hint for probable running mate proposition, the outgoing governors were said to have not only doubled their efforts to ensure that Tinubu clinched the ticket but also win the Presidency.

Former Kaduna State governor, Nasir el-Rufai was said to be upbeat by the Presidency and also a staunch advocate for the Muslim- Muslim proposition with the hopes of being a possible beneficiary. But, it was gathered that things fell apart when after his emergence from the June 6-8, 2022 APC special convention and presidential primary, Tinubu went to the Northeast to choose his running mate in the person of Senator Kashim Shettima Mustapha.

Although former President Buhari helped to quench the smoldering fire of discontent with the ruling party in the build up to the 2023 general ballot, the murmuring within the North-West vote bank continued. Some of the outgoing governors were said to be peeved by Tinubu’s logic that it was impolitic and odd for him to pick a running mate from the same North-West that was just rounding off eight years in the Presidency.

As the finger pointing within their fold continued, some of the outgoing governors grieved in buyer’s remorse as they bemoaned their failure to queue behind their former colleague and Minister for Transportation, Chibuike Amaechi. However, after a meeting with the then President Buhari in Katsina, the governors were enjoined to work for the party’s success at the polls and avert the return of Peoples Democratic Party (PDP).

As if heeding the saying that He who fights and runs away, lives to fight another day, those aggrieved by the events of 2022/2023, swore to fight on to right wrongs of the past during the 2027 poll.

It was against that background that the recent APC National Executive Committee (NEC) decision to cede the position of the party’s National chairmanship to Northwest instead of North Central, could be understood.

Some party insiders claim that the measure was to ensure President Tinubu’s smooth ride to a second term in office in the 2027 poll. But others insist that the offer was to entrench Ganduje’s continued stay in office, and as a bargaining chip for the Northwest votes.

Ganduje is seen as a fiercely loyal supporter for the Tinubu presidential mandate, as such APC stakeholders in the zone see the zoning of the APC chairmanship to North-West as a deliberate effort by the party’s leader to take the wind off the sails of those opposed to Tinubu’s second term.

They argue that reassuring Ganduje that his position is not under threat would go a long way to retain the cohesion among Tinubu’s men in the zone. Some observers had blamed President Tinubu for leaving out the former Kaduna State governor, el-Rufai out of the inner caucus of his administration, claiming that with el-Rufai and former Presidential candidate of New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) on the other side of the political divide, the battle for North-West votes would be fierce.

President Tinubu’s choice of Ganduje as replacement for Senator Abdullahi Adamu, who relinquished the position of chairman after the failed attempt to return Senator Ahmad Lawan, spilled some bad blood within the North Central zone that felt short-changed in the emerging scheme of things. Ever since, subdued voices of opposition to Ganduje continued.

It should be noted that one of the arrowheads of opposition, Alhaji Saleh Zazzaga, who instituted a lawsuit on the issue at a Federal High Court, Abuja, had to stand down the agitation for his (Ganduje’s) removal prior to the NEC meeting.

Having doused the internal insurrection, many believe that the battle for the control of the North-West has begun and as a clear clash among the APC, NNPP, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and other opposition political parties.

Echoes of past battle
Recall that during the 2023 poll, PDP’s Presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, clinched four out of the seven North-West states — Kaduna, Katsina, Kebbi and Sokoto, as against Jigawa and Zamfara states that went to Tinubu and APC. NNPP and Kwankwaso won Kano as a consolation prize.

But, in the votes tally, President Tinubu had the upper hand after garnering 2,652,824 votes to beat Atiku, who scored 2,197,824. Not only was Atiku’s vote margins in some of the aforementioned states narrow, Tinubu took a whopping half a million votes in Kano alone. The credit for the incredible performance in Kano went to Ganduje, who was then the outgoing governor.

With Northwest votes accounting for a quarter of a total of 8,794,726 that earned President Tinubu victory for the coveted seat, it is understandable why APC leaders decided to retain Ganduje for a repeat offensive. By redirecting its attention to the North-West, Tinubu and other leaders of the party acknowledge the fact that the zone is fast becoming the rallying point of the opposition ahead of the 2027 poll.

Recruitment of foot-soldiers
The ruling party’s confidence seems to be bolstered by the recent gale of defections from the opposition flanks to APC. The push has become very noticeable particularly in Kano and neighbouring Kaduna state.

Kaduna State Governor, Uba Sani, has joined the fray, partly as a survival strategy, but also to justify the confidence reposed in him by President Tinubu. The former Kaduna Central Senator has become torn in the flesh of his benefactor cum predecessor, Mallam Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai.

As a garland for his groundwork, Gov Sani recently received about 50 prominent opposition figures, including a former predecessor, Ramallan Yero, Senator Shehu Sani, Senator Danjuma Laah, Hon Godfrey Ali Gaiya, a former federal lawmaker, four current members of House of Representatives and three members of the State Assembly, among several others.

Ganduje and the Deputy Senate President, Barau Jibrin, while receiving a coalition of Support Groups across Northern Nigeria, last week, in Abuja, said the crisis rocking the PDP and NNPP remains a good omen for his party ahead of the 2027 polls.

While hinting at plans to host a formal reception for the defectors in Abuja, after the month of Ramadan, the APC national chairman said President Tinubu, Vice President Shettima, Senate President Godswill Akpabio, and House of Representatives Speaker, Abass Tajudeen, will grace the occasion. He said the event will mark “the disappearance of PDP in Nigeria, particularly in the northern part of this country.”

The coalition’s leader, Abubakar Malami, claimed that the groups played key roles in securing votes for Atiku in the 2023 poll. But he adduced the economic policies of President Tinubu and improvements in security in various northern states as major reasons for their decision to defect to APC.

Malami stated: “We supported Alhaji Atiku in our quest to address the challenges facing our region, especially the terrorist activities of bandits, which are clogging our people’s wheel to economic activities. Farming, the mainstay of our people, was a no-go area. Our farmlands were turned into kidnappers’ dens.

“However, to the glory of Almighty God, 22 months into President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s tenure, a fresh air of peace and hope permeates the 19 northern states. The crashing prices of food items cannot be divorced from the relative peace enjoyed in our region.”

He also referenced the establishment of the North-West Development Commission and the North Central Development Commission for the development of states within the region as well as the Barau Initiative for Agricultural Revolution in North-west (BIARN), as reasons for joining the APC.

Ganduje’s aide on Civil Society Organizations (CSOs), Comrade Okpokwu Ogenyi, justified NEC’s decision to move the chairmanship seat to the North-West geopolitical zone, saying that it was well thought out.

While remarking that the gesture would enhance the party’s fortunes ahead of the 2027 poll, Ogenyi noted that the North Central geopolitical zone should have no cause to worry since it already has the position of Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF) occupied by Sen. George Akume.

He stated: “Zoning is not done in a vacuum. It is done based on competence of leadership. What the NEC has done was to affirm the leadership qualities of Dr Abdullahi Umar Ganduje who has been able to unite the party, won more states for the party and is poised to win the 2027 poll for the party. So there is no better arrangement than to zone the seat to the North West where the chairman can work without any form of distraction.

“You will agree with me that in the 2023 election, Kano State gave the highest votes to the president in the country, which is where Ganduje comes from. Though we lost to Kwankwaso by about 100,000 votes, due to manipulation, we actually won in the true sense of it. With Ganduje there, you will see that there is already a power broker in the North-West for Asiwaju.”

“ It would now give him the impetus to penetrate not just the North-West but the 19 states of the North. You can see Atiku support groups defecting to the APC and changing their nomenclature to the Tinubu support groups. It shows clearly with the zoning to the North-West, Ganduje is already penetrating the hinterland for the APC.”

However, despite the optimism of the ruling party, opposition elements, particularly supporters of El Rufai, dismiss the APC national chairman as a second-rate political player in the zone. They claim that the plaudits being heaped on Ganduje for the 2023 poll was out of organic merit, but a function of his influence as governor.

el-Rufai, who failed to make into President Tinubu’s cabinet in controversial circumstances, has been rallying northern leaders and bigwigs against the APC. Without doubt, his recent move to the Social Democratic Party (SDP) sets the stage for a clash of wit and strategies as 2027 inches closer.