Nigeria is projected to record a 100 per cent increase in yearly air trips per capita by 2045, Airbus Manufacturing revealed this in its latest Global Market Forecast (GMF 2026).

Airbus said that the 100 per cent surge reflects the country’s growing aviation potential as the population expands, while the economy records growth.

According to Airbus, the projection places Nigeria alongside South Africa, which is also expected to record a 100 per cent increase in annual trips per capita over the next 20 years.

Ethiopia is projected to record a higher growth rate of 150 per cent over the same period, indicating the expanding potential of Africa’s aviation market.

Besides, Airbus said Africa would require 1,640 new passenger aircraft by 2045 to meet rising demand, comprising 1,310 single-aisle and 330 wide-body aircraft.

The forecast showed the continent’s long-term aviation growth prospects, driven by demographic changes, expanding middle-class populations, urbanisation, tourism, and increasing trade, Airbus said.

According to the report, passenger traffic to, from and within Africa is expected to almost triple over the next 20 years, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 4.9 per cent.

This would make Africa the world’s second-fastest-growing aviation market after Asia.

Commenting on the projections, President of Airbus in Africa and the Middle East, Gabriel Semelas, said aviation was a major catalyst for the continent’s economic development.

He added: “Meeting the anticipated growth in passenger traffic will require a strong and collaborative aviation ecosystem capable of connecting communities, accelerating regional trade and creating new opportunities for shared prosperity across Africa.

“The projected expansion is also attributed partly to Africa’s demographic and economic outlook.” The continent’s population is projected to increase by 720 million to more than two billion by 2045, while its middle-class population is expected to grow by 180 million, the forecast said.

Its urban population is also projected to increase by 450 million, representing 47 per cent of the overall population.

Airbus further projected that Africa’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and real trade would grow at compound yearly growth rates of 4.0 per cent and 3.9 per cent, respectively, between 2025 and 2045.

These developments, it said, would strengthen demand for air travel and connectivity as more people move to urban centres, participate in economic activities and gain access to travel opportunities.

The manufacturer noted that Africa’s growing propensity to travel would translate into millions of additional passengers yearly, particularly in major markets such as Nigeria, South Africa and Ethiopia.