Get Guardian on GoogleA UK-based Nigerian data scientist and founder of Nygon Technologies in Wolverhampton, Olaniyi Oluseyi Gideon, said he has run Nigeria’s 2027 presidential election 50,000 times using a Monte Carlo simulation built on a state-by-state, multi-factor scoring model, and the model gives President Bola Tinubu a 79% chance.
While he showed where that number could crack, he maintained that President Tinubu wins about 79 times in every 100, while Peter Obi wins about 11, and Atiku Abubakar about 10.
Gideon scored each of the 36 states and the FCT on ten factors, including the 2023 map, religious fit, governor defections, hardship, and insecurity.
He then applied the constitutional rule that a winner needs the most votes and at least 25% in 24 of the 37 units.
He said that in a typical run, President Tinubu gets 39% of the vote, Obi 29%, and Atiku 28%. Gideon says those ranges overlap, though. The usual gap between first and second is only about six points.
The key finding: incumbency and hardship almost cancel each other out.
The most important result is that the race comes down to one contest: being in office against the cost of living. Being the sitting president is worth about 12 points to Tinubu’s chances. Prices, hardship, and insecurity take away about 11.5. Because the two nearly balance, small changes in how people feel about the economy move the result a lot. If the cost-of-living backlash gets worse, Tinubu falls to 59%. If inflation eases and households feel it, he rises to 91%.
The forecast is also open about its limits. Gideon overrode the model by hand in five states, including Lagos and the FCT, where Obi won in 2023. Those calls add about seven points to Tinubu. On the data alone, Tinubu’s chance is 71%, not 79%. When the historical part of the model was tested on past elections, it called the right winner in 65% of states.
He stated that his findings showed that a run-off is a real possibility. It happens in about a quarter of simulations, and Tinubu wins only 37% of those run-offs.
A joint opposition ticket narrows the race but does not flip it. If Atiku steps aside for Obi, Tinubu drops to 64%. If Obi steps aside for Atiku, **Tinubu** drops to 58%.
Turnout is Obi’s path. At around 42% turnout, Obi’s chance rises to 34%.
Kano is a coin flip. Obi has a 51% chance there against Tinubu’s 47%.
He warned that polls should be treated with caution. Polls in 2022 overstated Obi by up to 67 points on the gap with Tinubu.
In his recommendations, Gideon gives each camp one priority. Tinubu’s team should put the cost of living ahead of everything else, because that is the biggest single threat to his lead. Obi’s team should focus entirely on turnout and on people who did not vote in 2023. Atiku’s team should win the North West and North East decisively and aim to force a run-off. He stresses that these are readings of the model, not endorsements.
“A forecast that gives you one number is hiding something,” Gideon writes. “The honest answer is a range.”
