A group within the All Progressives Congress (APC), BTO4PBAT, has disclosed that the proposed alliance between presidential candidates of the African democratic Congress (ADC) and the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi, respectively, will not be sufficient to defeat President Bola Tinubu in the 2027 presidential election.

Meanwhile, the Prof. Pat Utomi-led Political Commission of the Movement for Credible Elections (MCE) has commenced plans to hold closed-door engagements with shortlisted opposition presidential candidates and their parties as part of efforts to produce a single presidential candidate for the 2027 ballot.

BTO4PBAT, in a statement, argued that the arithmetic of combining opposition support bases could not automatically translate into electoral victory, stressing that voter loyalty and political structures could not simply be transferred through an alliance between political leaders.

According to the group, Nigeria’s political history has demonstrated that coalitions formed primarily for electoral purposes often face challenges arising from competing ambitions, regional considerations and differences in political interests.

The statement, signed by the Director-General of BTO4PBAT, Adesuyi Adojutelegan, noted that a possible Atiku-Obi alliance would first have to resolve questions about leadership and political direction before convincing their respective supporters to work as one political bloc.

Adojutelegan maintained that the proposed opposition merger would face the difficult task of transforming separate support bases into a single, coordinated political movement, adding that unity on paper does not necessarily translate into unity at the polls.

The group further stressed that the opposition coalition would need to overcome deep-rooted structural and personal political differences before it could present a credible challenge to the governing party. It also cited the advantages of incumbency and the governing APC’s existing political structures across the 36 states of the federation as a decisive factor that would work in Tinubu’s favour in 2027.

BTO4PBAT vowed to campaign for Tinubu with governance and delivery, rather than opposition grievances, adding that voters would assess the administration based on what had been achieved, what was being implemented and what remained to be delivered.

MCE said the engagements would precede a tactical session billed for Ibadan in a fortnight, as the initiative enters a critical phase.

In a statement yesterday signed by its Media Coordinator, James Ezema, MCE noted the opposition parties shortlisted for the engagements to include the Social Democratic Party (SDP), African Democratic Congress (ADC), Allied Peoples Movement (APM), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Accord Party, Peoples Redemption Party (PRP), African Action Congress (AAC) and Young Progressive Party (YPP).

The movement said the decision to hold the meetings behind closed doors was to prevent sabotage by political mercenaries and jobbers opposed to the initiative and determined to frustrate negotiations among the shortlisted presidential candidates and their parties.

The group said Nigeria could not afford another opposition arrangement in which political actors agree on the need for a united front but disagree when it becomes necessary to determine the arrowhead and rallying point of the electoral alliance.

According to the movement, the success of the emerging opposition coalition would depend less on the popularity of individual aspirants than on the credibility, transparency, fairness, due process and level-playing field adopted in selecting its presidential candidate.

Apart from Utomi, members of the political commission expected to drive the tactical engagements include Maryam Inna Ciroma, Mrs Modupe Adelaja, Solomon Dalung, Uche Onyeagocha, Dr Olusegun Mayegun, Dr Sam Amadi, Mike Igini, Barbara Etim James, Olawale Okunniyi and Dr Adum Alex.

The group urged all stakeholders to approach the engagements with an open mind and willingness to place Nigeria’s democratic future above personal interests.

It, however, said every participating presidential candidate and political party would be required to make a prior commitment to respect the outcome of the process and support the adopted presidential candidate of the coalition.