By Raymond Oise-Oghaede

In a matter of a few more hours, the electorate in Osun State will file out across the 30 Local Government Areas of the state to exercise one of their most fundamental civic rights, which is the right to determine, through the ballot, who will be at the helm of affairs of the state as Governor for the next four years. Tomorrow, Saturday, 15 August 2026, the people of Osun will have the opportunity to make that important choice.

In this year’s contest, the battle is essentially between the incumbent, His Excellency, Senator Ademola Jackson Adeleke of the Accord Party, and other notable contestants, particularly the candidates of the APC, ADC and other political parties.

Although there have been reports of alliances, realignments and negotiations involving some of the candidates and political actors in an attempt to improve the chances of their preferred candidates, the stage appears set for a keenly contested election. So, another major realignment could still be in the offing before dawn tomorrow.

This election is particularly important because, apart from being a major contest for the political control of Osun State, it is the last scheduled off cycle governorship election before the 2027 general elections and, consequently, a major political test ahead of the presidential election.

The election will provide the major political actors and political parties with an opportunity to test their political structures, grassroots mobilisation, popularity, strategies and electoral value in preparation for the bigger political battle ahead.

It is therefore not surprising that a large number of political heavyweights, strategists and influencers from the major political parties have moved into Osun State to engage in the kind of last minute politicking they believe could give their preferred candidates an advantage at the polls.

The outcome of tomorrow’s election will undoubtedly be subjected to extensive political interpretation.

For some, it will be a referendum on the performance of the incumbent administration. For others, it will be a test of the strength of the various political parties and their structures. Yet, for others, it will be an indication of what could possibly happen when Nigerians go to the polls in 2027.

Whatever interpretation anyone may wish to place on it, one thing is certain: Osun 2026 is much bigger than Osun State alone.

However, there have been disturbing reports of pockets of violence, political tension and unrest in some parts of the state in the last few days. This is a very troubling development.

The concern is not simply about what has happened already, but what could possibly happen before, during and after the election if the current tension is not properly managed.

The situation is particularly worrying because of the increasingly hostile exchanges between supporters of the major political parties.

Just a few days ago, a video went viral on the internet in which a leader of one of the political parties was allegedly heard making a statement that was interpreted as a call for his supporters to attack or kill supporters of a rival political party if they ventured into a particular area of the state.

Though the person in question has denied the allegation, maintaining that the video was doctored or manipulated. The police have reportedly questioned him in connection with the matter, and investigations are ongoing.

Whatever the outcome of the investigation may be, the people of Osun State in particular, and Nigerians in general, deserve to know the truth. Any statement capable of inciting political violence is dangerous and has no place in a responsible democracy. If the allegation is established, the appropriate authorities must take the necessary action in accordance with the law. Conversely, if the video is found to have been doctored or manipulated, those responsible for creating and circulating such material must equally be held accountable. There must be no double standard.

It need be recalled that similar inflammatory remarks generated controversy in the countdown to the 2023 general elections in Lagos State.

Unfortunately, such matters are often allowed to disappear from public consciousness once the immediate political crisis has passed. We must stop this practice.

Whether we like to hear it or not, an inflammatory statement capable of provoking violence is dangerous and constitutes a serious threat to democracy. Political leaders and their supporters must understand that words have consequences.

A politician who makes reckless statements may not personally be present when violence eventually erupts. But the people who listen to such statements may interpret them as authorisation to act. That is why responsible political leadership requires restraint.

If we continue to allow politicians to make reckless statements and thereafter dismiss them as ordinary political rhetoric, we are simply postponing the inevitable consequences. Nigeria has already paid a very heavy price for political violence. We have laboured hard. We have wasted precious time. We have lost valuable properties. We have lost innocent lives. We have made enormous sacrifices for democracy to take root in Nigeria. We cannot continue to sit on the fence and watch a few individuals turn everything upside down because of their selfish, corrupt and destructive political interests.

So bad has the situation become that we now hear politicians and their supporters boasting that they are capable of doing the unthinkable and that “heaven will not fall.” I do not have much to say about such reckless bravado coming from people who are supposed to understand the responsibilities that accompany political leadership. But I can say this with certainty, the day will come when the consequences of political recklessness will fall heavily on those who have continued to undermine our democracy.

In every decent democracy, citizens must be allowed to exercise their civic responsibilities according to their convictions and conscience. Although inducements in various forms may unfortunately continue to feature in our electoral politics, this should never be construed as an acceptance or justification of such practices. Vote buying and other forms of electoral inducement are wrong and should be condemned. More importantly, the use of threats, violence or intimidation to compel an elector to vote against his or her wishes has absolutely no place in a democracy.

It is totally wrong and unacceptable for any elector to be prevented from coming out to exercise his or her constitutional right because of threats to life, intimidation, violence or reckless political outbursts.The people must be free to choose. The people must be free to reject. The people must be free to support. And the people must be free to change their minds. That is the essence of democracy.

At this juncture, this review wishes to call on all security agencies that will be deployed for tomorrow’s exercise to ensure adequate security for the electorate. Your duty is to Nigeria and the Nigerian people, and not to a particular political party, candidate or politician. You are expected to remain apolitical, professional, neutral and unbiased in the discharge of your assigned responsibilities. Your responsibility is to protect the people and the electoral process. The electorate must be able to leave their homes, go to their polling units, cast their votes and return home without fear of harassment, assault, intimidation or violence. The improved motivation of security personnel, including salary increases and other benefits, is not coming from the private pockets of politicians. It is ultimately funded from public resources. You therefore owe the citizens a duty of care. Protect them. Protect their property. Protect their right to vote. Protect the integrity of the electoral process. Tomorrow provides another opportunity for all the security agencies to showcase their professionalism and commitment to the Nigerian people; and I can assure you that all eyes are on you. Not only Nigerians within the country are watching; but, the international community is also watching, and you cannot afford to fail.

The same responsibility rests on the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) and all its officials, including the permanent staff and ad hoc personnel deployed for the election. You are expected to remain neutral and professional throughout the exercise. You are being paid to perform a public duty, and any attempt to betray the trust reposed in you by aiding electoral manipulation, rigging or deliberate disenfranchisement is not only a betrayal of the electorate but may also amount to an electoral offence. It is high time we started doing the right things in this country so that we can also begin to make genuine progress in every facet of our national development. We know some of the antics that politicians may attempt to use electoral officials to perpetrate, for instance; deliberate delays, selective deployment, arriving late at polling units in areas considered strongholds of political opponents, manipulating procedures, compromising the collation process and other electoral irregularities. I will not go into all of them here. But let me assure you that, you will be watched; you will be recorded; you may be photographed; and you may be captured on video. The world has changed; because, with mobile phones and other digital devices everywhere, it is becoming increasingly difficult for anyone to assume that what happens at a polling unit will remain hidden.

Those who compromise the electoral process should therefore not assume that their actions will go unnoticed. And they should also not assume that the politicians who induced them to compromise their integrity will stand by them when the consequences arrive. When the heat comes, many of those who encouraged you to commit the offence may disappear and leave you to face the consequences alone. You may ultimately find yourself ON YOUR OWN (OYO).

To our erudite professors and other distinguished academics who will be on duty for this exercise, I wish to enjoin you to carry out your assigned responsibilities with the highest level of integrity, diligence and professionalism that your positions in society demand. Do not leave any stone unturned in ensuring that you perform your duties to the best of your ability and in accordance with the rules governing the exercise. Do not give room to those who may not fully appreciate what it takes to attain the enviable position of a professor or distinguished scholar to ridicule or rubbish the dignity and respect associated with that position. Your conduct during this exercise must reflect the intellectual integrity, discipline and sense of responsibility expected of people of your standing. Remember that, apart from representing the highly respected position of a scholar, you are equally representatives of your respective institutions and, ultimately, of yourselves and your names in society. Whatever you do tomorrow may become part of your professional and personal record. Ironically and unfortunately, our people are often quick to adjudge an election as free, fair and credible when the outcome favours them, while describing the same process as bad, rigged or manipulated when they lose. This is why your role is particularly important. You should be seen to have discharged your responsibilities diligently, transparently and neutrally, so that, irrespective of the eventual outcome, posterity will have no reason to question your integrity or professionalism. Let your conscience be your guide, let the rules be your standard, and let the integrity of your profession be your motivation.

To the leaders of all politica parties, please, be reminded that election day is not campaign day. The campaigns have ended. INEC has already stipulated the timetable governing the various activities leading to the election. Tomorrow is for voting. Go to your respective wards and polling centres and cast your votes peacefully and responsibly. Do not attempt to compel anyone to vote for your party against his or her wishes. Do not threaten anyone. Do not assault anyone. Do not prevent anyone from accessing his or her polling unit. Do not destroy electoral materials. Do not engage in vote buying or any other activity capable of undermining the integrity of the election. You should also understand that the world has changed. Your actions can be captured on mobile phones and cameras from distances you may not even be aware of. A person who believes that nobody is watching may wake up the next morning to discover that his or her actions have been viewed by millions of people. Once your face is on the internet, identifying you may only be a matter of time. And when the consequences come, do not expect the political actors who encouraged you to break the law to take your place in the dock. You may very well be left to face the full consequences of your actions. Again, you may be ON YOUR OWN (OYO).

To all the electorate in Osun, the ball is in your court. You are the ultimate owners of the mandate. You are expected to play your part appropriately and decisively with your Permanent Voter Cards (PVCs). Go out confidently and without fear to exercise your right to vote. Do not allow anybody to intimidate you. Do not allow anybody to dictate your choice. All the candidates on the ballot are Nigerians and, more importantly, indigenes of Osun State in one way or another. The person who eventually emerges as Governor will not be a stranger to the people of Osun. Therefore, there is no justification for killing, maiming or destroying property because of political differences. Governor Ademola Adeleke has been in office for almost four years, and the things his administration has done are available for the people to assess. You do not need anybody to tell you whether the administration has been progressive or retrogressive.

If, in your estimation, Governor Adeleke has performed well and deserves another term, go out confidently and vote for him. But if you believe that he has not performed well enough and that Osun requires a change of direction, you are equally free to choose any of the other candidates whom you believe can provide the leadership you desire. That is the beauty of democracy.

This review is not written to support any particular candidate. At the same time, it is written to support the candidate who enjoys the legitimate mandate of the majority of the electorate.

If you ask me who that candidate is, I will not blink an eye before giving my answer. It is the candidate who will genuinely garner the highest number of legitimate votes cast by the people in accordance with the law. Not the candidate with the most money. Not the candidate with the strongest political godfather. Not the candidate whose supporters are the most aggressive. But the candidate whose legitimate votes are the highest after a transparent and credible electoral process. So, the most important thing is to let the people decide.

I have, over the years, written several articles specifically on the Osun State governorship elections, beginning from 2014, without fear or favour and without financial or other inducement from any candidate or political party. My interest has always been to ensure that the right things are done to strengthen our democracy. I do not write because I want to please politicians. I do not write because I am looking for political appointments. I do not write because I have been induced by anybody. I write because I believe that Nigeria deserves better. We owe it to ourselves and, more importantly, to the coming generation to leave behind a democratic system that is stronger, more credible, more accountable and more responsive than the one we inherited. Our democracy may not be perfect, but the answer is not to destroy it. The answer is to strengthen it.

That said, as the people of Osun prepare to go to the polls tomorrow, I wish to appeal to all political actors to remember that elections come and go, but the consequences of political violence can remain with families and communities for generations. No political office is worth the life of another Nigerian. No governorship seat is worth destroying Osun State. No politician is worth dying for. Let us disagree politically without becoming enemies. Let us compete fiercely but responsibly. Let the security agencies remain neutral. Let INEC officials remain professional. Let political parties respect the rules. Let the electorate vote according to their conscience. Let the votes count. And, most importantly, let the legitimate winner emerge.

Finally, I wish His Excellency, Governor Ademola Jackson Adeleke, the incumbent Governor and candidate of the Accord Party, and all the other candidates on the ballot the very best of luck.

To the good people of Osun State, I wish you wisdom, courage and peace as you take this important decision in the history of your state.

Osun is bigger than any individual.

Democracy is bigger than any political party.

And the people are bigger than the politicians seeking their votes.

Tomorrow, the people will speak.

Let their voices be heard.

Let their votes count.

Let the people prevail.

Raymond Oise-Oghaede.

[email protected]