Saudi Arabia has opened a dangerous can of worms by resuming direct military action against the Houthis in Yemen. The latest escalation began on July 13, 2026, when airstrikes targeted the runway at Sanaa International Airport, abruptly ending a period of relative calm.

The Saudi-backed Yemeni government claimed responsibility for the strike, saying it was intended to prevent an unauthorised Iranian aircraft carrying a Houthi delegation from landing.

However, rather than containing the group, the strike prompted a swift and aggressive Houthi response. In a dramatic 18-hour blitz, Houthi forces seized the strategic town of Dhubab and the coastal village of Murad, bringing nearly the entire Yemeni Red Sea coastline under their firm control.

This swift manoeuvre underscores a critical reality: Saudi Arabia has made a profound strategic miscalculation. By provoking the Houthis when a fragile peace was holding, Riyadh has needlessly exposed its vulnerable infrastructure and heightened the risk of a broader economic and regional crisis.

To understand the conflict’s complexity, one must examine how different international actors perceive the Houthis (Ansar Allah). The lens through which analysts view the group depends entirely on their geopolitical posture: The United States and Israel view the Houthis primarily as a terrorist organisation or a hostile regional proxy. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates view them as a dangerous insurgent group that threatens their immediate national security and border stability. Iran and Ansar Allah view the movement as an integral part of the “Axis of Resistance” and as freedom fighters opposing foreign intervention.

These divergent designations persist because there is no universally accepted definition of terrorism in international law.

Security experts routinely debate where legitimate insurgency ends and terrorism begins, weighing factors such as unlawful violence against civilians, intimidation, political coercion, and ideological motives.

By comparison, international legal debates elsewhere in the region remain similarly contentious; for instance, Israeli military actions in Gaza remain a subject of intense debate among genocide scholars, even after a UN report noted the presence of four of the five genocidal acts defined under the 1948 Genocide Convention.

The internal fragmentation of Yemen has consistently worked to the Houthis’ advantage. Beyond controlling the capital, Sanaa, the insurgents hold almost all of former North Yemen, with the notable exception of the eastern Marib Governorate. When the Southern Transitional Council (STC) was formed in 2017 and captured Aden in 2018, the pro-republican alliance fractured completely. Clashes broke out between pro-Hadi government forces, backed by Saudi Arabia, and southern separatists, supported by the UAE.

Capitalising on this chaotic power vacuum, terrorist groups such as Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and the Islamic State launched attacks against both factions, with AQAP seizing significant territory inland and along the coast.

Meanwhile, the Houthis evolved into a far more sophisticated military force than their opponents anticipated. When the Saudi-led coalition first intervened in March 2015 to support the internationally recognised government, US President Barack Obama agreed to provide the coalition with logistical and intelligence support.

Yet, over a decade of continuous combat, the Houthis expanded their military capabilities exponentially. With Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assistance — ranging from technical cooperation to advisers on the ground — and through the development of their own homegrown rockets, drones, and ballistic missiles, the Houthis transformed into a formidable adversary.

The Houthis’resilience was clearly demonstrated during the major escalation in early 2025. On March 15, 2025, the United States launched Operation Rough Rider — a large-scale air and naval campaign targeting Houthi radar systems, air defences, and missile launch sites across Yemen. Notably, it was the first major U.S. military operation in the Middle East under President Donald Trump’s second term, and the United Kingdom joined the strikes on April 30.

Despite the intensity of the Western campaign, military force proved incapable of decisively subduing the group. The extreme hazards of operating in the region were underscored when an F/A-18 Super Hornet fell overboard from the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman on April 28, 2025, after the vessel executed abrupt evasive manoeuvres to avoid incoming Houthi fire.

Recognising the limits of kinetic intervention, President Trump made a pragmatic decision on May 6, 2025, announcing a unilateral ceasefire that halted U.S. strikes in exchange for a Houthi pledge to stop targeting commercial shipping lanes. Notably, Washington struck this deal independently, without Israel’s consent or notification.

Saudi Arabia’s decisions are particularly baffling given its extreme vulnerability to asymmetric retaliatory strikes. The Houthis have repeatedly demonstrated their ability to strike deep inside Saudi territory, putting vital energy infrastructure directly in the crosshairs.

For instance, the Saudi East-West Crude Oil Pipeline (Petroline) spans approximately 1,200 kilometres (746 miles) across the Arabian Peninsula, from Abqaiq in the Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. The pipeline was designed to bypass the vulnerable Strait of Hormuz. However, if the Houthis control the Yemeni coastline, target energy infrastructure, and threaten the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Saudi Arabia’s alternative export routes become severely compromised.

The Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait together handle more than one-quarter of global seaborne crude oil and petroleum trade. The Red Sea corridor carries nearly one-third of global container shipping traffic. Recent Houthi offensives have further solidified their military leverage. After their coastal blitz, Houthi forces captured the strategic port city of Mokha and Zuqar Island in the southern Red Sea using combined rocket attacks and amphibious assault boats.

Government forces reportedly retreated, leaving behind substantial stockpiles of weapons and equipment, while more than 2,000 government soldiers were forced to surrender.

By striking Sanaa airport and reigniting open hostilities, Saudi Arabia has re-engaged an enemy that has grown stronger, better equipped, and strategically positioned to disrupt global commerce. With the world economy already strained by geopolitical tensions, a renewed conflict in the Red Sea risks triggering broader economic instability and supply chain disruptions.

Regardless of ideological differences, all parties involved in this compounding crisis must recognise that military solutions have reached their absolute limit. Diplomacy must be embraced immediately to prevent this volatile situation from deteriorating further.

Abiodun Ramon Oseni, a Fellow at the Institute of Security Nigeria, former U.S. police officer, and U.S. Army veteran, specialises in international security at Harvard University and American Military University and wrote via [email protected].