Benue 2027: Will Gov. Alia push back Rainbow Coalition’s ambush?

By SAMSON KUKWA YANOR

The battle for Benue’s governorship has intensified, with incumbent governor, Rev. Fr. Hyacinth Alia, facing rival camps linked to SGF George Akume, former Senate President David Mark and immediate past governor Samuel Ortom. SAMSON KUKWA YANOR reports.

Barely ninety days before the February 6, 2027 governorship election, the African Democratic Congress (ADC) has emerged as a formidable opposition force in Benue State.

Led by its national chairman, Senator David Mark, the party has assembled political warlords whose political sagacity has been proven over time. Senator Emmanuel Yisa Orker-Jev is a four-time member of the House of Representatives and the immediate past senator representing Benue North-West Senatorial District.

A deep thinker, he is known to be a shrewd and taciturn political strategist. While David Mark holds sway at the national level, Senator Orker-Jev is the leader of the ADC in Benue.

Former minister and immediate past governor, Samuel Ortom, will be at the forefront of the PDP’s political machinery. His party has presented a governorship candidate in the person of former Attorney-General of the Federation and Minister of Justice, Chief Mike Kaase Aondoakaa. Ortom is considered one of the smartest politicians in Benue State.

A grassroots politician, he has a profound understanding of the political terrain. A cunning and elusive politician, Ortom has proven to be a ferocious fighter who can hold his own on the political battlefield any day.

Though a contestant himself, the incumbent governor, Rev. Fr. Alia, will be a decisive factor. A relatively recent entrant into politics, Alia has nevertheless forged an impressive political structure and cultivated a loyal, almost cult-like following across the state.

His calling as a priest, particularly as a healing priest before his foray into politics, earned him the people’s trust and a large following. While his relationship with the higher echelons of the political class in Benue is strained, his popularity among the masses remains strong and constant.

Governor Alia’s combination with the Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), George Akume, proved formidable in 2023. With Akume at the helm of affairs for the 2023 general elections and the priest as the governorship candidate, the APC ran an electrifying campaign across the nooks and crannies of Benue State with the “Yes Father!” campaign mantra.

In the end, the then-ruling PDP was almost completely swept aside, save for the Benue South senatorial seat, which was won by the current Senate Minority Leader, Abba Moro, of the PDP.

The “Yes Father” movement, in addition to winning the governorship, took the PDP to the cleaners, winning two of the three senatorial seats, 10 of the 11 House of Representatives seats and 26 of the 32 State Assembly seats.

But in 2027, the dynamics are no longer the same. In fact, there is strong suspicion that the Akume camp within the Benue APC is seeking to replace Governor Alia if it can have its way.

The leader of the Benue PDP and former governor, Samuel Ortom, who has reconciled with SGF Akume, has publicly stated that the PDP will enter into a “strategic alliance” with Akume’s APC faction.

It was therefore not surprising to political observers that, at the birthday party of former Executive Secretary of the Nigerian Shippers’ Council, Emmanuel Jime, who had defected to the Akume camp of the APC after losing out in the primary election for his senatorial bid, one of the guests, with the SGF in attendance, was the Benue PDP governorship candidate, Mike Aondoakaa (SAN), who sat comfortably among them.

Only a few days ago, Austin Agada, factional chairman of the Akume camp of the APC, emerged as secretary of the Wike-led Rainbow Coalition and promptly declared in an interview with newsmen that “Governor Alia has not given the coalition any reason to support his re-election bid”.

While all the major contestants are formidable personalities in their own right, the opposition remains largely fragmented in its challenge to the ruling party. Professor Sebastine Tar Hon, of the SDP, for instance, enjoys goodwill, but beyond a platform he has to build from scratch, his aspiration is considered premature in the face of the iron-clad Tiv zoning formula of ya-na-angbian, or zoning, which significantly shapes the state’s politics.

He is considered to be swimming against the tide of zoning, which does not favour his socio-political zone of Jemgbagh. Notwithstanding, he is already building a political structure of his own. If he sustains the momentum, he may become a political force to be reckoned with in the near future.

Professor Terhemba Shija is highly experienced in Benue politics. A one-time member of the House of Representatives and a former commissioner, Shija also successfully delivered a governorship candidate, former governor Gabriel Suswam, as Director-General of Campaigns in 2011.

He is therefore well versed in the nuances of Benue politics. However, political alliances had already been formed before he emerged as the NDC’s governorship flagbearer.

Though a good candidate with a very popular presidential candidate in the person of Peter Obi, his party lacks grassroots reach in an environment where the majority of the electorate are not sufficiently politically enlightened to vote independently. That may prove to be his albatross.

A lawmaker, Herman Hembe, is generally considered to have performed well as a member of the House of Representatives. The youngest among the array of governorship aspirants, he is very popular among the youths. His major undoing may turn out to be his party platform, the ADC.

Though he holds the Tiv chieftaincy title of Zege Mule u Tiv, the ADC presidential candidate, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, is of Fulani ethnic stock. The Fulani are now widely distrusted in Benue because of the killings and displacement of residents, which are largely attributed to them.

This perception affected Atiku’s performance in the 2023 general election in Benue, when he was the PDP’s presidential candidate. He came a distant third with 130,000 votes, against the APC’s Ahmed Bola Tinubu, who polled 310,000, and the Labour Party’s Peter Obi, who scored 308,000.

Atiku’s candidacy partly accounted for the PDP’s abysmal performance in Benue in 2023. If anything, that distrust and resentment have become even more pronounced following the Yelwata massacre and other attacks, and are likely to affect Hembe’s candidacy negatively.

The Labour Party’s governorship candidate, Mathias Byuan, is another household name in Benue. However, he has no real political structure of his own, and the soul of the Labour Party of 2023 has gone with Peter Obi, leaving behind an almost empty shell. Considered by many to be a generous and likeable fellow, he nevertheless lacks the political clout to swing the tide in his favour, except if, in the course of events, one or more of the established political structures adopts his candidacy, a prospect that currently appears very unlikely.

As things stand, the actual contest is between Mike Kaase Aondoakaa of the PDP and the incumbent, Rev. Fr. Alia of the APC. Aondoakaa has the most organised and experienced media handlers among the governorship candidates, with a two-pronged strategy: to project the PDP candidate as much as possible and discredit the incumbent governor, Alia.

He has strategically positioned himself to capitalise on the rift between the SGF, Akume, and the Alia camp within the APC.

Through the proposed “strategic alliance” announced by PDP leader and former governor Samuel Ortom, which they are now seeking to consolidate through the Rainbow Coalition, they hope to secure Akume’s approval for his APC faction to align with the PDP to oust the incumbent governor.

Aondoakaa’s major undoing, however, is the general distrust of the masses towards the old-school political class to which he belongs.

He is part of a class that has wielded political power for two decades while the people’s living conditions have deteriorated. As a result, media hype notwithstanding, his candidacy is still viewed with quiet suspicion and distrust by many in the state.

The APC candidate and incumbent governor, Alia, is the common enemy of all the opposition parties.

Alia’s weak point is his image management. The governor has created employment opportunities and engaged more people in gainful employment than any other governor in Benue State’s history.

On infrastructural development, he is also perceived by the masses to have performed comparatively well. Ironically, his achievements have not been adequately projected. His strongest weapon, however, is the trust of the masses, which an organised media onslaught by the opposition has been unable to erode.

In Benue State, the Rainbow Coalition is, in actual fact, an intended amalgamation of the Akume faction of the APC and the PDP. Interestingly, the PDP has fielded candidates for all elective positions, and electioneering activities are already intensifying.

For instance, the PDP candidate for Benue North-West Senatorial District is Samuel Ortom’s wife, Mrs Eunice Ortom, who will square up against Akume’s candidate for the same seat, the incumbent senator, Dr Titus Zam, if the court rules in his favour in the tussle over the senatorial ticket between him and ACG Benjamin Aber (rtd.).

The same scenario is playing out in other places, too. The Rainbow Coalition does not appear to have its act together or to be sufficiently organised to oust Alia. Most importantly, despite their less-than-cordial relationship, Akume has not yet given his supporters the go-ahead to vote against his party’s governorship candidate. For now, in a free and fair contest, the indices seem to favour Alia’s re-election.