The defeat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) in the August 15 governorship election in Osun State has rekindled self-belief that popular support, performance and strong local political structures can be a ‘federal might’, TUNDE BODUNRIN reports.

The Osun State gubernatorial result has provided a fresh reference point in the long-running debate over ‘federal might’ in Nigerian elections. Governor Ademola Adeleke’s victory over the APC candidate, Bola Oyebamiji, despite the ruling party’s formidable national structure, suggests that control of the centre does not automatically guarantee victory at the state level.

Adeleke polled 511,067 votes against Oyebamiji’s 444,815, winning 19 of the state’s 30 local government areas, while the APC candidate secured 11.

The significance of the election, however, may lie less in the result itself than in what it says about the limits of federal influence. The APC had mobilised its national structure for the contest, yet the party failed to reclaim the state.

The outcome has consequently raised a broader question ahead of 2027: can an incumbent, or a candidate backed by a popular governor, withstand the organisational and institutional advantages enjoyed by the party controlling the centre?

That question will be tested across several states and legislative districts next year.

In some cases, serving opposition governors will personally defend their mandates against APC challengers. In others, the contest will be about whether governors can transfer their political capital to preferred successors. At the National Assembly level, sitting legislators and former governors will also test the strength of their personal networks against candidates backed by the ruling party.

Otti’s Abia test
ONE of the clearest tests will be in Abia, where Governor Alex Otti of the Labour Party is seeking a second term against APC candidate Eric Opah.

Otti, elected in 2023, will seek to persuade voters that his administration’s record warrants another term, while the APC will seek to convince Abia voters that its candidate offers a more compelling alternative.

Unlike Osun, the Abia contest will not involve an incumbent seeking re-election after changing parties. The central issue will be whether Otti’s personal popularity and assessment of his administration can withstand the organisational strength of an APC that controls the Federal Government.

The contest could therefore provide another indication of whether the political capital accumulated by an incumbent can outweigh the advantages associated with the party at the centre.

Oyo presents a different but equally significant test.

Governor Seyi Makinde cannot seek a third term after completing the two terms permitted by the Constitution. The contest is therefore not about his personal re-election but whether his political standing and the record of his administration can help his preferred successor, Abimbola Adekanmbi of the Allied Peoples Movement (APM), withstand the APC’s Senator Sharafadeen Alli.

APM adopted Adekanmbi as its consensus governorship candidate in May, while the APC formally unveiled Alli as its candidate in July.

The Oyo election could consequently become an important test of political succession. Can the popularity of an outgoing governor be transferred to another candidate?

The question is more complicated than the Osun example because voters will not be choosing Makinde directly. Adekanmbi will have to persuade the electorate that continuity under a new candidate is preferable to a change of government.

Alli, meanwhile, brings his own political profile and experience as the sitting senator representing Oyo South, as well as the structure of the APC.

The contest could therefore reveal whether the decisive factor is the outgoing governor’s popularity, the successor’s strength, the organisation of the parties, or voters’ assessment of eight years of government.

Bauchi: Bala’s succession test
A similar test is unfolding in Bauchi, where Governor Bala Mohammed of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) is also approaching the end of his constitutionally permitted two terms.

Like Makinde in Oyo, Mohammed cannot seek a third term, making the 2027 contest a test not of his personal popularity but of his ability to transfer his political capital to a successor.

The Bauchi governor has built a significant political profile within the state and nationally, while the PDP remains the dominant political platform in the state. The challenge, however, will be whether that influence can survive a change of candidate in an election in which the APC is expected to leverage its control of the Federal Government.

The question is particularly important because the strength of a governor’s political structure is not necessarily the same as the popularity of his preferred successor. A candidate who inherits an incumbent’s machinery must still establish a personal connection with voters and convince them that continuity is preferable to change.

Bauchi will therefore provide another opportunity to test whether the political influence of a two-term governor can extend beyond the incumbent’s personality.

Put alongside Oyo, the two states could offer an important comparison: whether governors who cannot seek re-election can turn their records, structures and relationships with voters into electoral advantages for their chosen successors.

For Makinde and Mohammed, therefore, the 2027 election is not simply about who wins the governorship. It is also about whether political capital can be inherited.

Legislative battles
THE same struggle between personal political capital and party machinery will extend beyond the governorship contests.

In the Federal Capital Territory, Senator Ireti Kingibe of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) is seeking another term against former senator Philip Tanimu Aduda of the APC.

Aduda represented the FCT in the Senate from 2011 to 2023 before losing the seat to Kingibe. He later left the Peoples Democratic Party and moved towards the APC.

The contest has acquired an additional political dimension following comments by FCT Minister Nyesom Wike that Kingibe would not return to the Senate. Kingibe has rejected the suggestion that any individual can determine the choice of FCT voters.

For Kingibe, the election will test whether her record as a sitting senator and her relationship with voters can sustain her against an experienced challenger backed by the APC structure.

The FCT contest also presents a distinctive dimension to the “federal might” argument because it is taking place in the nation’s political capital, where national political interests are particularly pronounced.

IN Kogi Central, Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) faces former Governor Yahaya Bello of the APC in another closely watched senatorial contest.

Akpoti-Uduaghan is the sitting senator seeking re-election, while Bello is seeking a return to the Senate after two terms as governor.

The contest will pit legislative incumbency and the senator’s record against the political network and experience of a former governor.

It is, however, more complex than a simple contest between the two prominent contenders, as other candidates are also in the race. The distribution of votes among the parties could therefore prove decisive.

For Akpoti-Uduaghan, the question is whether her representation can translate into sufficient local support for another term. For Bello, the question is whether the political structure associated with his years in the Government House can translate into a Senate victory.

IN Bauchi Central, incumbent Senator Abdul Ningi of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) will face the APC’s Misau Isah Hamma in a contest that adds another dimension to the federal might debate.

Ningi, who defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) to the ADC in 2026, has had a history of political disagreements with the ruling APC. His move to the ADC, therefore, makes the contest not only a test of his personal popularity and political structure, but also of whether the APC can deploy its organisational advantage to dislodge an incumbent with an established constituency.

The contest will ultimately test whether Ningi’s political capital can survive a party change and withstand the machinery of the party controlling the Federal Government.

In Bayelsa West, former Governor Seriake Dickson is seeking a return to the Senate on the platform of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), with the APC’s Fidelis Agbiki among the candidates.

Dickson’s case differs from those of Kingibe and Akpoti-Uduaghan because he is a former governor rather than a sitting senator.

His contest will therefore test whether the political capital accumulated during his two terms as governor remains strong enough to influence a senatorial election, particularly against an APC candidate.

The election will also be watched against the background of the broader political realignment taking place in Bayelsa and the South-South ahead of 2027.

What does ‘federal might’ really mean?
FOR Associate Professor of Strategic, Social and Behaviour Change Communication at Lagos State University, Thanny Taiwo, federal influence has historically been an important feature of Nigerian politics.

He argued that such influence becomes particularly significant when a sitting governor belongs to an opposition party, citing the use of security agencies and financial investigations as avenues through which the centre could exert pressure.

Taiwo, however, said an incumbent’s strongest defence remained good governance and investment in the people.

According to him, an incumbent who governs well is more likely to establish a bond with the electorate, making voters willing to defend such a government at the polls.

He also advised voters to consider candidates’ antecedents rather than their political affiliations or access to federal support.

Professor Bayo Popoola, a political communication scholar and Head of the Department of Mass Communication at the University of Lagos, also sees federal influence as only one factor in an election.

According to him, its effectiveness depends on factors such as political literacy, awareness, and consciousness among voters.

He argued that federal influence could help defeat an incumbent who had lost the confidence of the electorate, but that the situation could be different when voters considered the incumbent a performer.

The arguments of the two scholars point to a more complicated reality than the simple notion that control of the centre guarantees electoral victory.

The strength of federal influence may depend on the credibility of the challenger, the popularity of the incumbent, the organisation of the competing parties, and, ultimately, how voters perceive the performance of the government they are being asked to retain or replace.

The 2027 test
THIS is where the significance of Osun becomes clearer. Adeleke’s victory did not establish that “federal might” has disappeared from Nigerian politics. Neither did it prove that national political structures have become irrelevant. It demonstrated that their influence is not necessarily decisive in every contest.

The circumstances will differ from state to state. Otti will be defending his personal record in Abia. Makinde and Mohammed will be attempting to deliver successors in Oyo and Bauchi, respectively. Kingibe will be defending a Senate seat in the FCT.

Akpoti-Uduaghan will face a former governor in Kogi Central, while Dickson will attempt a political comeback in Bayelsa West.

The contests, therefore, offer different tests of the same proposition. Can personal popularity overcome party machinery? Can performance in office translate into electoral loyalty? Can a governor transfer his political capital to a successor? Can a sitting legislator’s record withstand a better-organised challenger?