As the race to 2027 intensifies, Rivers State is gripped by a fierce power struggle between former governor Nyesom Wike and his political protege, Governor Siminalayi Fubara. Beyond party labels, the contest is about control of political structures, influence and who is in chargeof the oil-rich state, ANN GODWIN reports.
Beyond party platforms or ideological leanings, the contest between Governor Siminalyi Fubara and his predecessor, Nyesom Wike, is about power—control of political structures, dominance of grassroots networks, and the question of who truly commands authority in Nigeria’s oil-rich state as the next electoral cycle approaches.
Much like the prelude to the 2023 elections, political stakes are rising, fault lines are widening, and manoeuvres behind the scenes are already shaping what promises to be one of the most consequential political battles in Rivers State’s recent history.
Wike’s ‘thank you visits’
FRESH tensions resurfaced following a series of “homecoming” visits by Wike to Rivers State between late December 2025 and early January 2026. Widely interpreted as a strategic political re-entry, the visits were seen as deliberate efforts by the former governor to reassert his dominance, consolidate grassroots support, and directly challenge the authority of Governor Fubara ahead of the 2027 election.
During tours of several local government areas, including the four Ikwere councils of Obio/Akpor, Emohua, Ikwere and Port Harcourt City, as well as the Ogoni axis and other communities, Wike left little doubt about his intentions.
He declared that his political camp would “correct the mistakes of 2023,” insisting that chanting President Bola Tinubu’s popular slogan, “On your mandate we stand,” would not automatically translate into electoral tickets or political patronage.
His repeated assertion that “power is not for dash” underscored his long-held belief that political authority must be earned and negotiated, not handed out freely. To many political observers, the remark was an unmistakable rebuke of Governor Fubara, whom Wike is widely believed to have personally installed as governor.
Throughout the visits, Wike projected the image of a political godfather still firmly in control of Rivers State’s dominant political machinery. By openly mobilising loyalists and engaging traditional and political leaders across the state, he appeared determined to remind both allies and adversaries that his grip on Rivers’ politics remains strong.
Many analysts see the tours as an early campaign, designed not only to shore up influence but also to send a clear signal that the former governor has no intention of retreating quietly from the state’s political space.
A fragile peace unravels
THE renewed hostility comes against the backdrop of a fragile truce brokered by President Bola Tinubu on September 18, 2025, aimed at ending months of political tension between Wike and Fubara. That agreement, reached after sustained pressure from Abuja, was expected to restore calm and allow governance to take centre stage.
However, insiders say the failure to fully implement the terms of that peace deal has widened cracks in the already strained relationship. While the governor has largely maintained a restrained public posture and sought to project focus on governance, political analysts believe his confidence has been bolstered by what appears to be growing goodwill from the federal centre.
Fubara’s political recalibration, most notably his defection to the All Progressives Congress (APC), has reportedly earned him recognition from key power brokers in Abuja. The APC National Chairman, Professor Nentawe Yilwatda, publicly acknowledged Fubara as the leader of the party in Rivers State, noting that it is standard practice within the APC for sitting governors to control party structures in their states.
Similarly, the National Security Adviser, Nuhu Ribadu, is said to have conveyed that President Tinubu is pleased with the governor’s leadership style and commitment to stability. These endorsements, subtle as they may be, have been interpreted as signals of federal backing for Fubara’s political survival.
Yet Wike has repeatedly dismissed claims that Fubara controls the APC structure in Rivers, insisting that his own political network remains the dominant one. His statements have been widely read as warnings against what he describes as ingratitude and the abandonment of prior political understandings.
Wike’s red line and the succession question
PERHAPS the clearest indication of Wike’s resolve came during a thank-you visit to Okrika Local Government Area and a courtesy call on the Amanyanabo of Okochiri Kingdom, King Ateke Tom. There, Wike cautioned traditional rulers to avoid partisan politics and allow politicians to “play their game,” noting that political momentum toward 2027 was already gathering speed.
More strikingly, he declared that his political career would be “buried” if Governor Fubara were allowed to secure a second term in office. The statement, widely regarded as a political red line, underscored how deeply personal and strategic the contest has become.
For Wike, a second term for Fubara would signify the total erosion of his influence and the loss of control over Rivers State’s political machinery. Consequently, the unfolding confrontation has come to symbolise a broader struggle over godfatherism, pitting a seasoned political kingmaker determined to retain relevance against a sitting governor increasingly assertive of his independence.
The danger of sliding back into crisis
The implications of the renewed tension are profound, raising fears of a relapse into the political turbulence that engulfed Rivers State in 2023. That episode, which erupted barely six months after the general elections, was characterised by a bitter struggle for control of state resources and political structures between the two camps.
The crisis reached a dangerous climax on October 29, 2023, when a section of the Rivers State House of Assembly complex was set ablaze by suspected arsonists. The subsequent demolition of the complex by the Fubara administration in December, officially justified on safety grounds, only deepened mistrust and escalated tensions.
The fallout was severe. Economic activity slowed, investor confidence waned, lives and property were affected, and governance ground to a halt. Despite multiple peace interventions, the crisis lingered for months, leaving lasting scars on the state’s political and economic landscape.
Many fear that a return to such instability could further weaken Rivers State at a time when other states are aggressively courting investment and federal opportunities.
Abuja, Tinubu and the 2027 calculus
Perhaps the most consequential dimension of the Wike–Fubara standoff lies in Abuja. Chairman of the Rivers State Civil Liberty Organisation (CLO), Sunny Dada, observed that President Tinubu’s evolving posture has significantly altered the balance of power in the state.
By accommodating Fubara within the broader Renewed Hope political framework, the presidency has effectively expanded its strategic options in Rivers State. This recalibration, analysts believe, may have unsettled Wike, particularly amid signals from influential federal figures perceived to favour continuity under Fubara.
Nevertheless, Wike and his allies have consistently used their visits to Rivers to reaffirm loyalty to President Tinubu and his reform agenda. These gestures are widely seen as calculated efforts to secure federal backing and counter Fubara’s growing influence within the APC at the national level.
What has emerged is a classic power play: both camps mobilising political structures in support of President Tinubu ahead of 2027, even as they engage in a fierce local battle for supremacy.
Beyond elite rivalry, Rivers State continues to bear the highest cost of prolonged political instability. Persistent uncertainty has deepened capital flight, weakened investor confidence and widened the economic gap between Rivers and more stable states such as Lagos.
Projects stall, governance slows, and opportunities, both domestic and international, slip away. For a state endowed with vast oil and gas resources, the cost of political paralysis is particularly steep.
What lies ahead
A LINGERING budget dispute between the executive and the legislature has further exposed the depth of the crisis. Analysts say the disagreement is not merely fiscal but represents an early skirmish in the broader 2027 succession battle.
Wike appears determined to prevent Fubara from consolidating power through a second term, while the governor, buoyed by perceived federal goodwill, seems unwilling to submit fully to external control. The State House of Assembly remains a critical pressure point, and the presidency continues to watch closely, recalibrating its political options.
Dada lamented that Rivers State, once a close competitor to Lagos as a preferred investment destination, has lost considerable ground due to prolonged instability. He disclosed that the CLO is monitoring political conduct in the state and documenting developments, adding that the organisation may engage international partners, including recommending possible visa restrictions against individuals whose actions undermine democratic governance.
Also speaking, Port Harcourt-based legal practitioner, Wori N. Wori, expressed concern that Governor Fubara may be receiving misguided advice from his inner circle. He argued that the governor should have drawn clearer lessons from the Supreme Court’s judgment on the crisis.
Wori recalled that before the lifting of the state of emergency, an agreement was reached to restore political stability, stressing that the governor has a responsibility to honour its terms. Failure to do so, he warned, may have triggered the renewed hostilities.
He further cautioned that governance in Rivers State could suffer gravely, noting the Supreme Court’s position that effective governance requires the functional coexistence of the executive, legislature and judiciary. The absence or dysfunction of any arm, he said, amounts to a breakdown of government.
For policy analyst and human rights activist Henry Eferegbo, political conflicts often erupt when powerful actors with competing interests fall out. Power, he noted, remains a potent incentive in politics, and those who possess it are naturally inclined to retain it.
Eferegbo warned that when political actors perceive a shift in the balance of power, they often recalibrate strategies to regain advantage.
He urged all sides to tread carefully and prioritise the collective interest of Rivers State over personal or factional ambitions.
As Rivers State inches closer to 2027, the central question remains unresolved: who will ultimately claim ownership of the state’s political soul? More importantly, what will be the fate of its people and its economic future amid yet another high-stakes power struggle?
