How to translate reform gains into improved living conditions

By Isaac Olusina Monehin

Nigeria appears to be making some progress in macroeconomic stabilisation following the difficult but necessary economic reforms introduced by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration. The removal of petrol subsidies, exchange-rate reforms, improved revenue mobilisation and efforts to restore fiscal and monetary stability represent significant attempts to correct longstanding structural distortions in the economy.

There are encouraging indications that these interventions are beginning to yield results. Economic growth, government revenues and aspects of the investment environment have shown signs of improvement.

However, beneath these macroeconomic developments lies a troubling reality: millions of Nigerians are yet to experience meaningful improvements in their daily lives.

For the ordinary Nigerian, economic progress is not measured by GDP growth, foreign-exchange reserves or improved government revenue. It is measured by the ability to afford food, pay school fees, access healthcare, meet transportation costs, pay electricity bills and retain enough disposable income to maintain a reasonable standard of living.

This is the fundamental challenge confronting President Tinubu’s administration: how to translate macroeconomic gains into tangible household economic recovery.

The next phase of the reforms must therefore move decisively from macroeconomic stabilisation to poverty reduction, employment generation and improved household purchasing power.

The results of the November 3, 2026, midterm elections in the United States offer an important lesson for governments everywhere.

The Democrats’ sweeping electoral victories, including their capture of both chambers of Congress, demonstrate the political consequences of widespread dissatisfaction with the cost of living and economic conditions under an incumbent administration.

The lesson for Nigeria is particularly relevant as the country approaches the 2027 general elections.
Voters ultimately judge governments by their lived experiences, not simply by official economic statistics or the intentions behind government policies.

President Tinubu must recognise that prolonged economic hardship, declining purchasing power and rising poverty could translate into public disillusionment and an electoral backlash against the ruling party.

The greatest danger is the widening disconnect between what government considers economic progress and what ordinary Nigerians experience in their homes, markets and workplaces.

This danger is not inevitable. But it requires urgent attention. Rather than abandoning the ongoing reforms or returning indiscriminately to the old subsidy regime, government should introduce a second phase of economic interventions specifically designed to ensure that macroeconomic improvements cascade down to households and productive enterprises.

A coordinated National Household Economic Recovery Programme (NHERP), built around six priority areas is hereby proposed:

Food affordability as national priority
FOOD inflation remains one of the most direct expressions of economic hardship. Government must intensify support for smallholder farmers through subsidisedfertiliser, improved seedlings, mechanisation, affordable agricultural credit and extension services.

Investment in irrigation, dry-season farming, secure agricultural production zones, storage facilities, rural roads and cold-chain infrastructure should be accelerated.The objective must be to increase domestic food production, reduce distribution costs and make essential food items more affordable.

Strengthening social protection
The removal of petrol subsidies and exchange-rate reforms imposed substantial adjustment costs on households.Government must strengthen targeted social protection through transparent cash transfers, transportation assistance, expanded school feeding and affordable primary healthcare for vulnerable citizens.Beneficiary databases must be independently verified to minimise corruption, duplication and political manipulation.

Employment creation as a central measure of economic performance
GDP growth without correspondingemploymentgrowth will not substantially reduce poverty.Priority should be given to labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture, agro-processing, manufacturing, construction, solid minerals, renewable energy and digital services.Government incentives and financing should increasingly be linked to measurable employment creation.Small and medium-sized enterprises, which have enormous potential to absorb labour, deserve particular attention through affordable credit, credit guarantees and technical support.

Accelerate electricity investment
UNRELIABLE electricity remains a major constraint on productivity and competitiveness.
Businesses are compelled to rely on expensive alternative energy sources, increasing production costs and the prices of locally manufactured goods.Investment in generation, transmission and distribution must therefore be accelerated, alongside embedded generation, renewable energy and mini-grids.The measure of success should not simply be installed generating capacity but reliable electricity actually delivered to households and businesses.

Reduce the cost of domestic production
IT is economically unhealthy that many Nigerian products cost more than comparable imported alternatives.High energy costs, inadequate infrastructure, expensive transportation, limited access to finance and regulatory bottlenecks undermine local competitiveness.Government must address these structural constraints rather than rely excessively on import restrictions and protectionist policies.Making Nigerian products competitive will encourage investment, expand production, create employment and reduce dependence on imports.

Expand affordable credit
SMALL businesses cannot expand without access to reasonably priced working capital.Development-finance institutions, credit-guarantee schemes and other financing mechanisms should be strengthened to improve access to affordable credit for viable enterprises.Responsible consumer credit should also be encouraged to enable households to acquire essential productive assets without falling into unsustainable debt.

These interventions will require substantial financial resources. An indicative annual funding envelope of N7–10 trillion could be considered, subject to detailed costing and available fiscal resources.

Financing should come from savings arising from subsidy reforms, improved revenue mobilisation, reduced wasteful expenditure, budget reprioritisation, development-finance institutions and private-sector partnerships.Existing government programmes should be consolidated to avoid duplication and unnecessary administrative costs.

Implementation must be phased, with measurable milestones.

Within the first 100 days, government should establish the programme, verify beneficiaries, commence targeted household support and accelerate agricultural interventions.

Within 6–12 months, measurable improvements should begin to emerge in food affordability, social protection, electricity access and SME financing.Within 12–24 months, the country should record significant improvements in agricultural output, productive employment and household purchasing power.

I would also propose ambitious four-year targets, including lifting at least 10 million Nigerians out of poverty and facilitating five million productive jobs.

A quarterly Household Economic Recovery Scorecard should track food prices, real household incomes, employment, poverty reduction, electricity access and the reach of social interventions. Independent verification is essential to ensure that reported achievements reflect actual improvements in people’s lives.

While government must act urgently to alleviate hardship, citizens must also appreciate the importance of allowing necessary economic reforms sufficient time to produce their intended results.

Economic restructuring of this magnitude, particularly where decades of structural distortions are involved, cannot deliver all its benefits overnight. It requires time, consistency, discipline and sustained political commitment.

The alternative to reform is not necessarily a return to economic comfort. Repeated policy reversals could recreate the very distortions that made reform necessary in the first place.

Disruption of the current reform trajectory, particularly through abrupt changes in economic policy or political instability, could undermine investor confidence, trigger capital flight, reverse emerging macroeconomic gains, disrupt business operations and result in further job losses.It could also increase economic uncertainty, weaken the investment climate and prolong the difficulties Nigerians are already experiencing.

Nigeria cannot afford another cycle of policy reversals and economic dislocation.

There is therefore a compelling national interest in ensuring that the current reforms enjoy sufficient continuity to achieve their objectives and are carried to their logical conclusion.

However, the appeal for citizen patience must not become an excuse for government complacency. Nigerians are more likely to support continuity when they see that their sacrifices are acknowledged, their difficulties are being addressed and tangible improvements in their living conditions are within reach.

As Nigeria approaches the 2027 general elections, the Tinubu administration must appreciate that its economic performance will inevitably be judged by ordinary Nigerians.

Voters will ask straightforward questions: Is food more affordable? Is real income improving? Is electricity more reliable? Are jobs available? Is poverty declining? Are opportunities expanding for young Nigerians? These questions will matter far more to many voters than government explanations of macroeconomic achievements.

The American midterm elections have reinforced an important political reality: economic discontent can become a formidable electoral force, regardless of a government’s reform credentials.

President Tinubu still has an opportunity to convert the difficult economic adjustments undertaken by his administration into a legacy of sustainable growth, reduced poverty and shared prosperity.

But this requires a change in emphasis. The administration must move beyond celebrating improving economic indicators to demonstrating how those improvements translate into better livelihoods.

The greatest political protection for this administration is not a more elaborate explanation of why the reforms are necessary, but demonstrable evidence that they are improving the lives of Nigerians.

Ultimately, history may remember President Tinubu as the leader who undertook difficult but necessary reforms of the Nigerian economy. However, the true measure of that legacy will be whether those reforms translated into reduced poverty, productive employment, greater prosperity and improved living standards.

The task before the President is therefore clear: sustain the reforms, strengthen their implementation, protect the vulnerable and ensure that the benefits of economic recovery reach ordinary households.

There is still an opportunity to convert economic reform into household prosperity, household prosperity into public confidence, and public confidence into the sustained political mandate required to consolidate the reforms.

Nigeria must now move from an economy that is stabilising on paper to an economy that is improving lives. The time to act is now.

• Monehin, an economist, is a former Executive Director of Energy Bank, Ghana and a former Senior Special Assistant on PPP to ex-Governor SegunMimiko of Ondo State. He can be reached through [email protected]