By Sunday Ayodele Enikanselu

Nigeria stands at a defining moment in its economic journey. After decades of structural weaknesses, fiscal distortions and inadequate investment in productive infrastructure, the country has embarked on a programme of economic restructuring intended to establish a more sustainable foundation for growth and national prosperity. The central question is whether Nigeria will consolidate the progress achieved so far and accelerate the transition from economic stabilisation to improved living standards.

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration has undertaken consequential economic reforms, pursued major infrastructure projects and introduced initiatives aimed at expanding opportunities in education, agriculture, technology and enterprise. These measures have imposed considerable adjustment costs on households and businesses. Yet the economic foundations being established, together with the improvements recognised by international financial institutions, make the next phase of implementation particularly important.

The task before Nigeria is to translate economic recovery into a better life for its people.

The removal of the petrol subsidy and the reform of the foreign-exchange market were among the most consequential decisions taken by President Tinubu after assuming office on 29 May 2023. The policies sought to address longstanding distortions, reduce fiscal pressures and improve the functioning of the economy.

Their consequences for ordinary Nigerians have been painful. Transportation costs increased, food distribution became more expensive, and households experienced a sharp erosion of purchasing power. These realities must not be minimised.

Economic reform cannot be judged solely by government revenue, exchange-rate movements or growth statistics while families struggle to afford basic necessities.

Nevertheless, the structural weaknesses that made reform necessary cannot simply be wished away. Nigeria must develop a more productive economy, mobilise resources for essential public services and create an environment in which private investment can generate employment and sustainable incomes.

The important consideration is that economic restructuring should not end with stabilisation. It must lead to prosperity.

There is compelling reason to take the country’s changing economic indicators seriously. In its October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, the World Bank reported that real gross domestic product grew by 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, compared with 3.9 per cent in the corresponding period of 2025. The institution also reported improvements in public finances and Nigeria’s external position, while noting that stronger economic performance and increased government revenue create opportunities to improve public services and support more inclusive growth.

The World Bank’s assessment is particularly instructive because it connects economic recovery with the need for better government spending, employment creation and improved services. Its message is not that Nigeria’s economic difficulties have disappeared, but that sustaining the reform momentum and using public resources effectively will be crucial to delivering broader benefits.

The International Monetary Fund has similarly recognised that reforms undertaken since 2023 have strengthened macroeconomic stability and resilience, improved the functioning of the foreign-exchange market and helped restore investor confidence. Its assessments have also highlighted persistent poverty, food insecurity and the difficulty many Nigerians continue to face.

These findings provide a useful basis for evaluating the country’s economic direction. They suggest that Nigeria has made progress in addressing important structural problems, but that the benefits have not yet reached all citizens sufficiently.

The rational response is to insist on stronger delivery, not to confuse the existence of unfinished work with the absence of progress.

Investors generally require a degree of policy consistency, predictable economic management and confidence that the rules governing their investments will not be arbitrarily reversed. Nigeria’s efforts to improve its economic framework, attract capital and strengthen infrastructure can support these objectives. However, investor confidence is a means to an end: the ultimate purpose is to generate productive investment, employment, higher incomes and improved public welfare.

This is why the next phase of Nigeria’s economic development deserves particular attention.

The administration’s infrastructure programme, including the Lagos-Calabar Coastal Highway and the Sokoto-Badagry Superhighway, reflects an effort to improve connectivity and expand commercial opportunities. Better transport corridors can reduce logistics costs, facilitate the movement of agricultural produce and connect businesses to larger markets. Improved ports, railways and electricity infrastructure can similarly support industrial development and national competitiveness.

For farmers in Oke-Ogun, traders in Lagos, manufacturers in Aba and entrepreneurs in Kano, the real value of infrastructure lies in the opportunities it creates. A road becomes an economic asset when it reduces the cost of transporting produce. Electricity becomes a development instrument when businesses can operate more reliably.

Improved port operations matter when they reduce delays and make Nigerian products more competitive.

These investments must be completed to appropriate standards, maintained effectively and evaluated against their economic impact. Their success will depend not on the number of projects announced, but on the productive activity and improved livelihoods they make possible.

The same principle applies to education, agriculture and enterprise development. The Nigerian Education Loan Fund can widen access to higher education. Digital-skills programmes can prepare young people for emerging industries.

Agricultural support can strengthen food production, while properly administered credit and enterprise programmes can help businesses expand.

Each initiative must ultimately be judged by its outcomes: students completing their education, young people finding productive work, farmers increasing output and businesses generating sustainable incomes.
The most urgent national priority, however, is the cost of living. Nigeria’s economic recovery will command greater public confidence when families can afford food without sacrificing other necessities, transportation consumes a smaller proportion of household income, and workers experience improvements in their real purchasing power.

A second phase of reform must, therefore, place household welfare at the centre of economic policy. Increased revenue should translate into better healthcare, improved schools, more effective social protection and infrastructure that reduces the costs of everyday economic activity. Agricultural productivity must rise sufficiently to improve food availability.

Employment opportunities must expand, particularly for young people. Public spending must be transparent, efficient and directed towards measurable improvements in living conditions.

This is the bridge between macroeconomic recovery and human prosperity.

The argument for continuity must be considered in this context. Economic restructuring requires time, institutional consistency and sustained implementation. Major infrastructure projects cannot be completed overnight, and the productive benefits of investment may take time to emerge. Abruptly reversing policies without a credible and sustainable alternative could introduce fresh uncertainty.

Continuity, however, is not an entitlement, and reform must never become a permanent justification for hardship. The case for continuing an economic programme rests on its capacity to deliver better results. President Tinubu’s administration must demonstrate that the foundations being established can produce measurable improvements in employment, affordability, public services and household welfare.

The opposition must also be prepared to meet the same standard of scrutiny.

Former Vice President Atiku Abubakar’s association with Nigeria’s privatisation programme during the Obasanjo administration raises legitimate questions about the performance of privatised enterprises, the protection of public assets and the lessons that should guide future transactions. The programme involved multiple institutions, and its outcomes cannot fairly be attributed to one individual alone. Nevertheless, a candidate seeking national leadership should explain what he has learnt from that experience and how he would ensure that future decisions involving public assets serve the public interest.

Similarly, Peter Obi’s record as governor of Anambra State deserves examination against the financial discipline he advocates nationally. Public disputes have arisen over the state’s financial position at the end of his tenure, including competing claims concerning funds and liabilities.

Those claims should be assessed against the relevant financial statements and independently verifiable records rather than treated as settled conclusions without sufficient evidence.

These issues matter because presidential candidates must be assessed on both their proposals and their records.

Promises of cheaper petrol, rapid economic expansion or immediate relief must be accompanied by credible explanations of how they would be financed and implemented. Nigerians deserve to know whether proposed alternatives would improve living standards sustainably or recreate economic distortions that future administrations would again have to confront.

The same scrutiny must apply to the incumbent. Government must demonstrate that reforms are producing tangible benefits, that public resources are properly managed and that the burdens of economic adjustment are not being imposed disproportionately on vulnerable citizens.
The objective should be a contest of evidence, practical solutions and measurable commitments to national development.

There is an enduring Yoruba proverb that captures the challenge before Nigeria: “Ìkòkò tí yóò jẹun, ìdí rẹ̀ á gbóná.” In English, it means, “The cooking pot that will eventually provide a meal must first become hot.”

The proverb reminds us that difficult preparation may precede a worthwhile outcome. But it also carries an obligation: the cooking pot must eventually produce food.

Nigerians have endured substantial economic hardship. They cannot be expected to wait indefinitely for the benefits of reform. The next phase must demonstrate greater urgency in reducing living costs, expanding productive employment, improving access to essential services and strengthening the social-protection system.

The administration has an opportunity to make the next four years a period in which economic restructuring becomes more visibly associated with household prosperity. That opportunity must be matched by effective implementation, transparent public spending and a clear commitment to improving the lives of citizens across every geopolitical zone.

Nigeria possesses immense agricultural potential, entrepreneurial energy, creative talent and human capital. The country can become more productive, competitive and prosperous if its economic institutions, infrastructure and policies work together to unlock those resources.

The World Bank’s and IMF’s assessments provide evidence of progress in economic stabilisation, but they also underline the work that remains. The responsibility now is to preserve the gains, address the shortcomings and ensure that stronger economic fundamentals produce wider social benefits.

Nigeria should not abandon a promising economic direction without carefully evaluating the consequences and the alternatives. Equally, the administration must understand that the ultimate justification for its reforms will be the improvement they bring to people’s lives. The foundation of a more sustainable economy is important. The prosperity that foundation is intended to support is even more important.

The real measure of Nigeria’s economic recovery will be whether its citizens can afford more, earn more, work more productively and live with greater dignity and security.

That is the promise the next phase of reform must fulfil. That is the standard against which the administration’s performance should be measured. And that is how Nigeria can move towards the Eldorado its people deserve.

Prof. Enikanselu, retired, wrote from Lagos.