Security expert and lecturer at the Nigerian Defence Academy (NDA), Abdullahi Bello, has warned that Nigeria could face deeper communal instability if the country fails to strengthen collaboration among government, security agencies and communities.

Bello, of the Department of Intelligence and Security Science, Faculty of Military Science and Interdisciplinary Studies, NDA, Kaduna, spoke at the 2026 North West Conference on Community Security Management and Crime Prevention, organised by the Institute of Security and Strategic Studies.

The conference, which focused on the theme, “Strengthening Community Security Partnership for Sustainable Peace, Crime Prevention and Good Governance in North West Nigeria,” brought together stakeholders to examine the region’s worsening security challenges and possible solutions.

Specifically, Bello said the growing convergence of banditry, terrorism and other criminal activities was placing enormous pressure on Nigeria’s conventional security and intelligence architecture.

“The convergence of banditry and ideological insurgency across North-Western Nigeria and other parts of the country has decisively outpaced the intelligence generation capacity of conventional military and standard security forces,” he added.

According to him, tackling the crisis requires a deliberate partnership between the government, citizens and security agencies, arguing that none of the three can effectively prevent crime in isolation.

“Crime prevention is nothing but a combined effort of the citizens. When I say the citizens, the three forces Major General pointed out: the government, the people, and the security forces. Without this synergy, crime prevention is impossible,” Bello said.

Learning from Rwanda, Kenya, Colombia
Bello said his comparative study examined security models adopted by countries including Rwanda, Kenya, Colombia, South Africa and India, with the objective of identifying approaches that could be adapted to Nigeria.

He cited Kenya’s Nyumba Kumi community-security initiative as an example of community-level intelligence gathering, describing it as a mechanism capable of connecting residents with security authorities.

The lecturer also referred to Rwanda’s experience following the 1994 genocide, stressing the danger posed by ethnic polarisation and the importance of social integration.

He argued that Nigeria’s history of intermarriage and cultural interaction makes attempts to draw rigid ethnic boundaries particularly dangerous.

Bello illustrated his argument with the example of former Senate President Bukola Saraki, whom he described as embodying the complex mixture of ethnic identities found across Nigeria.

“I’ve never seen a Hausa man or Fulani man who tells me he can castrate the mixture, this amalgamated blood in him or her,” he said.

“Where do I stand? I was on a flight to China, I met former Senate President Bukola Saraki… and he told me… ‘That thing also, you know, it pained.’ Where is he going to stand?”

Bello warned that ethnic-based security initiatives could worsen tensions if they were perceived as mechanisms for one group to target another.

“If other tribes brace up their own security forces and attack other tribes, there will be no Nigeria,” he cautioned.
‘We are on our way to Rwanda’
The NDA lecturer said Nigeria should learn from Rwanda’s experience before ethnic and communal divisions become even more entrenched.

“Check Rwanda. We are on our way to Rwanda, but I hope, Insha Allah, we will not get there,” he said.

He also referenced violence against Nigerians in South Africa, arguing that historical relationships between the two countries demonstrate the importance of accurate information and community intelligence in preventing conflict.

Bello said South Africa’s community intelligence mechanisms offer lessons for Nigeria, particularly in connecting police stations, communities and other security structures.

He similarly cited India’s Kerala model and Colombia’s security response to drug-related violence as examples of how intelligence networks can be developed to address local security threats.

According to him, Colombia’s experience is particularly relevant because of the country’s long struggle with drug cartels, criminal networks and violence.

“Colombia, when you mention Colombia, the whole world starts trembling,” Bello said, while explaining how the country developed intelligence-gathering mechanisms to confront organised crime.

Bello also examined Nigeria’s regional security initiatives, including the South-West’s Amotekun security outfit.

He argued that while Amotekun was created to respond to local security threats, greater emphasis should be placed on preventing attacks before they occur.

“Amotekun has suffered, just like all other fragmented security initiatives of the governors across Nigeria. Amotekun is still having problems because it’s after the attack, not at the seed,” he said.

He warned that security structures established primarily along ethnic or regional lines could become counterproductive if they fuel suspicion or retaliation between communities.

As part of his proposed solution, Bello advocated what he described as a “triple system” for North-West Nigeria.

He said the proposed framework would bring together intelligence and security institutions, political leadership and traditional authorities in a coordinated structure capable of collecting, analysing and sharing information.

“This triple system will create a kind of system of intelligence that is connected to the security and the leadership and the traditional establishment in Northern Nigeria,” he explained.

According to him, such a framework would promote the convergence of intelligence activities and help close the gap between information gathering and operational response.

He said the current security architecture suffers from deficiencies in intelligence capacity, collaboration and coordination.
“The gap is that of intelligence and capacity synergy and collaboration,” Bello said.

Bello further linked the rise of banditry and terrorism to what he described as the weakening of family and community values, particularly in parts of northern Nigeria.

He said his interactions with arrested criminals had reinforced his belief that social and family breakdown should be treated as part of the country’s security problem.

“The major threat is that destruction or diminishing propensity of family values,” he said. “Many of these bandits… are fallouts of this diminishing values. And this happens to be one of the greatest security threats today.”

He also warned about the reliability of intelligence sources, saying some informants may operate as double agents by providing information to both security agencies and criminal groups.

“People are afraid. People are traumatised today,” Bello said, adding that security agencies must conduct proper psychological and credibility assessments of informants.

Bello called for stronger leadership and greater professionalism within the country’s security architecture.

He said the scale of the North-West’s security challenges required leaders capable of coordinating intelligence, military operations, traditional institutions and communities.

“When leadership according to the General Staff is missing in security architecture, don’t waste your time. But we need serious people to be in charge of our security in Northern Nigeria,” he said.

He also disclosed that his return to the security sector as an academic was partly motivated by a desire to contribute to the training of a new generation of intelligence officers.

“It took me the grace of God to come back, and I decided part of my contribution is to come back to the security sector as an academic, at least to help to train young intelligence officers for the first time in Nigeria,” Bello said.

Bello said the country must move away from intelligence practices that rely on unverified information and focus instead on professional intelligence collection, analysis and evidence-based decision-making.

He further identified the North-West as a critical national security zone because of its demographic, economic and strategic importance, stressing that instability in major states such as Kano and Kaduna would have consequences far beyond the region.

He urged stakeholders at all levels to close the gaps between communities and security agencies, arguing that sustainable peace would depend not only on military operations but also on effective community participation, responsible leadership and preventive intelligence.

“The essence of this paper is joining a strategy, a way out for this particular chaos that has been confronting not only the North-Western part of the country, but also the entire country,” Bello said.

The conference therefore ended with a renewed call for stronger community-security partnerships, improved intelligence coordination and preventive approaches to crime as stakeholders seek sustainable solutions to the persistent insecurity confronting North-West Nigeria.