As Senator Wasiu Sanni Eshinlokun seeks re-election in 2027, the APC’s entrenched political structure faces a test from public discontent over economic hardship and opposition candidates seeking to turn their popularity into votes. SEYE OLUMIDE reports.

The battle for Lagos Central Senatorial District in 2027 will be shaped by three critical factors: the strength of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the performance and popularity of incumbent Senator Wasiu Sanni Eshinlokun, and the ability of opposition candidates to offer voters a credible alternative.

On paper, the APC enters the race with a considerable advantage. Its longstanding grassroots network, political influence across Lagos and established mobilisation machinery give Eshinlokun a head start over challengers from the African Democratic Congress (ADC), Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Allied Peoples Movement (APM) and other parties.

But party structure may not be enough to guarantee victory. With the 2027 general election approaching, the economic hardship associated with President Bola Tinubu’s administration could influence voters’ decisions, including in Lagos, where rising living costs, pressure on small businesses, transport expenses and declining purchasing power have become important concerns.

The central question is whether dissatisfaction with the Federal Government will translate into votes against the APC at the senatorial level, or whether the party’s organisation and Eshinlokun’s political standing will help him retain the seat.

Eshinlokun won the seat in 2023 with 131,828 votes, defeating the PDP candidate, Wale Gomez, who polled 69,320. The margin demonstrated the APC’s electoral strength in the district, but the next contest will take place under different political and economic circumstances.

The incumbent also has an established political profile, having served as chairman of Lagos Island Local Government, a member of the Lagos State House of Assembly and its Deputy Speaker before entering the Senate. As chairman of the Senate Committee on Marine Transport, he occupies a position relevant to Lagos Central’s commercial interests.

His constituency interventions, including a scholarship programme for 300 tertiary students and the facilitation of an X-ray machine for General Hospital, Lagos, provide some evidence of activity. However, the electoral question is whether constituents consider these interventions sufficient and whether they have seen tangible improvements in the quality of representation.

In a district where residents and businesses contend with flooding, traffic congestion, environmental degradation, housing pressure and the high cost of living, the expectations of voters extend beyond empowerment programmes.

Economic hardship and the APC factor
Tinubu’s economic policies could become a significant factor in the contest. Although the Senate election is distinct from the presidential race, both will be held on the same day, making it difficult for the APC candidate to escape the broader assessment of the ruling party’s performance.

For traders, artisans, transport operators and small-business owners across Lagos Island, Lagos Mainland, Apapa, Surulere and Eti-Osa, the cost of doing business and sustaining household incomes could weigh heavily on voting decisions.

The removal of the petrol subsidy, exchange-rate pressures and rising prices have imposed considerable costs on households and businesses, even as the Federal Government argues that its reforms are necessary to stabilise the economy and improve public finances.

The question is whether voters will accept that argument or punish the ruling party for the immediate difficulties they experience.

Eshinlokun could face a double test: defending his own record while dealing with public perceptions of the APC-led government. His challenge will be to demonstrate what he has achieved independently of the administration’s national performance and how his legislative position has helped address problems affecting his constituents.

However, economic hardship does not automatically translate into electoral defeat. The APC retains a formidable political network in Lagos, and voters may distinguish between their assessment of the president and their opinion of a senator. Personal relationships, constituency services, party loyalty and the strength of ward-level mobilisation could all work in Eshinlokun’s favour.

The outcome may therefore depend on whether the opposition can organise discontent into a coordinated electoral challenge rather than merely rely on public dissatisfaction.

Opposition candidates and the question of credibility
The opposition has candidates on the ballot, but the critical issue is whether any of them can build sufficient recognition, political alliances and grassroots support to challenge the incumbent.

ADC candidate Abayomi Idowu Omotayo has the advantage of having contested the seat in 2023. That experience could provide a starting point for rebuilding his campaign and improving his visibility. But previous participation alone will not guarantee a stronger showing.

The NDC and PDP candidates, Johnson Lawrence Adeniyi Oladipupo and Dakova-Vaughan Kolawole David respectively, will also need to demonstrate that their parties can mobilise voters across the district.

Their prospects will depend on their individual profiles, campaign resources, ward structures and capacity to persuade voters that they offer something different from the incumbent.

The multiplicity of opposition candidates presents an additional challenge. If voters dissatisfied with the APC divide their support among several parties, Eshinlokun could benefit even without securing an overwhelming majority of the votes cast. Conversely, a challenger who establishes a distinctive profile and attracts support across party lines could make the contest more competitive.

The opposition’s task is therefore not simply to criticise the APC. It must present a credible alternative, identify the district’s most urgent problems and explain how its candidate would use the Senate to address them.

Ojumu seeks space in the contest
Among the challengers, APM candidate Dr Desmond Oludare Ojumu has an opportunity to distinguish himself by focusing on policy, accountability and the practical concerns of residents and businesses.

APM has promoted the wider Àtunto Èkó 1.0, or Reset Lagos, agenda associated with its Lagos governorship candidate, Prince Laja Adeoye. The programme emphasises employment, affordable housing, education, healthcare, infrastructure, support for small businesses and environmental sustainability.

These themes resonate with many of the problems confronting Lagos Central. However, a state-level programme cannot, by itself, serve as evidence of Ojumu’s personal legislative agenda. He would need to translate the broad proposals into specific commitments relevant to the senatorial district.

For Apapa, a priority could be sustained legislative oversight of port access, traffic management and the federal agencies responsible for maritime operations. For Lagos Island and Lagos Mainland, the concerns include the survival of small businesses, youth unemployment, skills development and the state of public infrastructure. Flooding, drainage, housing and environmental management also require attention across parts of the district.

While many local infrastructure responsibilities rest with the state and local governments, a senator can use budget scrutiny, committee oversight, motions, legislation and engagement with federal agencies to pursue solutions within federal jurisdiction.

Ojumu’s challenge is to explain which of these issues he would prioritise, what legislative or oversight measures he would pursue and how constituents would assess his performance.

He must also demonstrate that APM can provide the political structure necessary to convert his message into votes. A compelling agenda may attract attention, but electoral success will depend on whether the candidate can build recognition, sustain a campaign and establish a reliable presence at ward level.

For Ojumu, therefore, the contest offers an opportunity to make a case for issue-based representation in a political environment where established party loyalties remain powerful. Whether he can turn that opportunity into a significant electoral showing will depend on his personal appeal and the organisational capacity behind his candidacy.

What should matter to Lagos Central voters?
Beyond party affiliations, the election provides an opportunity for voters to examine the quality of representation they want for the next four years.

Apapa’s port congestion and its consequences for businesses and residents remain important concerns. Flooding, blocked drainage channels, waste management, road safety and pressure on public infrastructure also affect the quality of life in several communities.

Economic conditions are equally important. Traders and small-business owners need a more supportive operating environment, while young people face questions of employment, skills and opportunity. Access to healthcare, education, affordable housing and security will also shape expectations of elected representatives.

These problems require different levels of government to work together. The senator’s responsibility is not to promise that every road will be repaired or every drainage channel cleared, but to use the office effectively to influence federal policy, scrutinise spending, pursue relevant interventions and hold responsible agencies accountable.

For Eshinlokun, the test is whether his first term has delivered sufficient results to justify another mandate. For the opposition, it is whether its candidates can offer practical proposals and convince voters that they possess both the commitment and the capacity to pursue them.

The contest will also test the relationship between political structure and candidate popularity. The APC’s organisation gives Eshinlokun a substantial advantage, but the strength of that advantage will depend on voter turnout, the cohesion of the party’s support base and the degree of dissatisfaction with the government.

The opposition, meanwhile, must overcome its fragmented field and demonstrate that public discontent can be translated into an organised electoral force.

At this stage, Eshinlokun and the APC appear better positioned because of their established political machinery and the incumbent’s electoral advantage in 2023. That, however, is an assessment of the starting position, not a prediction of the final result. The strength of the challengers, the campaign they mount and the mood of voters closer to election day could alter the calculation.

Ultimately, Lagos Central’s 2027 senatorial election will be a contest between the advantages of incumbency and party organisation, on one hand, and the electorate’s assessment of performance, economic conditions and alternative candidates, on the other. The APC may have the stronger structure, but whether that is enough to secure another victory will be decided by the voters.