Resurgent African coup d’états and ethno-religious terrorism! Nexus?

Ancient Yoruba of South-Western Nigeria have an adage: esin iwaju ni ti eyin wo, ti n ’fin sa ere. A rudimentary translation is that one’s inspired by life’s best performer, not the worst. Relating this adage to the extant thesis, on whether there is a causal relationship between resurgent coups in Africa and the quest to eliminate ethno-religious terrorism, it is pertinent to establish three vital philosophical truisms.

One; every reasonable, sentient, adult human being possesses an innate desire to be free and to have a direct or opaque say, in how he is governed and by whom. Upon that foundation, is the logical distillation that such persons, brigaded, desire to have an open or oblique stake in governance, and how it impacts their lives. The inference being that reasonable adults naturally have a preference for democracy in its natural sense: the government of the people; by the people; and for the people. By its very definition, the “government of the people” means the government freely chosenby the people or the majority of the people.

Two; applying the objectivecriteria of economic growth, gross domestic product, political stability, average life expectancy, observance of the rule of law, the richest countries in the world are unfettered by despotic military regimes that seize power in coup d’états’, subvert the democratic will of the people and, of necessity, illegitimise the constitutional order; under loud claims of altering the status quo ante for the “betterment of the people”.

To illustrate using a singularly imperfect, but, nevertheless insightful, GDP metric; democratic Canada’s GDP in 2022 was $2.22 trillion; Japan’s $5.181 trillion; and Switzerland’s $807.71 billion. Within the same period, dictatorships in Burkina Faso’s GDP was $18.88 billion; Mali’s $17 billion; and Niger’s $13.97 billion.

Three; to the extent that citizens are shackled by martial law, either on a temporary or permanent basis, in a benevolent or ruthless military dictatorship, in that citizens’ fundamental human rightstofreedom of association, freedom of expression, and freedom of peaceful assembly pursuant to the 1948 UN Universal Declaration of Human Rights, are significantly curtailed, or outrightly banned, military dictatorship is an aberration.

These ideological truisms notwithstanding, why is there an upward trajectory of coups in Africa? What drives them? Do regional military alliances have the capacity to prevent coups?How and to what extent have coups proven to be a viable bulwark against ethno-religious extremism in sampled countries?

Properly defined, a coup d’état (or coup!) is an illegal, immediate, violent and or non-violent, supplantation of an established constitutional order by military or paramilitary forces. Over the last 73 years, Africa has witnessed over 213 coup attempts with a “success” rate of approximately 50% out of 486 attempted or successful coups globally (Journal of Peace Research 48 (2) 249-259; projects.voanews.com). Putting this in perspective, in West Africa alone, coups have taken place in: Burkina Faso, on January 23, 2022; Chad, on April 21, 2021; Mali, on August 18, 2020; May 24, 2021; Guinea, on September 5, 2021; and in Niger, on July 26 2023.

These very dynamics clearly provide upending counterarguments to the above ideological postulationscharacterising coup d’état’s as constitutional aberrations. Indeed, they establish the reality of coup d’états, inferentially reinforcing the maxim: nihil manet, omnia mutantur (nothing stays; everything changes) or, more colloquially, no condition is permanent.

Whether one defines the leaders of coup d’états as coup plotters or renegades, one incontrovertible fact is that once a coup succeeds,they automatically become de facto “leaders”, “presidents”, “vice-presidents” via rulership by military decrees and edicts. Of course, there are other secondary beneficiaries of successful coups, like the allies of the key dramatis personae. These dynamics invoke the seminal principle in the natural order that nature itself nature abhors a vacuum principle.

Afterall, people will heartily welcome the removal of a corrupt and oppressive democratic government if it is replaced by a benevolent military dictatorship which advances national interests, economic development and citizens’ welfare. This proposition is exemplified by the savage Ugandan “Field Marshal” Idi Amin dictatorship (1971-1979), characterised by widespread ethnic persecution, extrajudicial killings, political suppression and economic mismanagement. Idi Amin was toppled and replaced with civilian administrations under Milton Obote (Uganda’s first democratically elected President) and Yusuf Lule. Idi Amin’s removal was executed with the active involvement of Tanzanian forces under the authority of the latter country’s pioneer nationalist President, Mwalimu Julius Nyerere. The critical point here is that the vacuum of effective leadership and the misrule under Idi Amin’s ruthless dictatorship, was abhorred by right thinking people, and, filled by the Tanzanian intervention.

All coup plotters have “reasons” for seeking to forcibly snatch power from elected democrats or incumbent military dictatorships. Traditionally, these have ranged from accusing the democratic order or the incumbent dictatorship of “bad governance”, “corruption”,“extra judicial murders”, “high-handedness”, “marginalisation”, “sabotage”, “self-enrichment” and the like. Take Niger’s recent July 2023 coup. The coup leader, General Abdourahmane Tchiani, justified toppling the administration of the democratically elected President Mohamed Bazoum, on the grounds that the putschists were motivated by the sole preoccupation of preserving Niger, tackling security degradation, bad economic and social governance.

History remains a sound teacher! Back in August 27, 1985, Nigeria’s then Army Chief, General Ibrahim Babangida, and the General Officer Commanding the 2nd Mechanized Division of the Nigerian Army, Brigadier Sani Abacha; justified ousting General Muhammadu Buhari dictatorship on the prospectus of seeking better governance and eliminating the “uncertainty, suppression and stagnation” which resulted from “the perpetration of a small group…”.

Equally, the international community, engages with, recognises, and if mutually beneficial geostrategic interests align, then, supposed “illegal” coup plotters suddenly become national leaders in their own right with all the accruing benefits and burdens, minus the seminal criterion of democratic accountability because, ab initio, they seize power by force, not by the persuasion of the electorate in democratic campaigns.

Indeed, international geopolitics continues to manifest in coup d’états in Africa. For example, at the height of the Cold War between Russia and its Eastern European allies and America and its western allies, Congo’s first democratically elected Patrice Lumumba, was assassinated in a coup d’état on January 17, 1961, with proactive American assistance (DRC: How the CIA got Patrice Lumumba – The Africa Report.com). More recently, and in what’s fast becoming a 21st century Cold war re-enactment on African soil, not least given reverberations of the Russian/Ukraine debacle.

Russia’s Wagner Group has been operating in Mali, at the latter’s dictatorship’s request, to counter Islamist insurgency in precincts intersecting Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger.

In turn Niger has, in recent days, turned its back on its colonial masters, France, suspending gold and uranium to the latter; instead, forming a strategic alignment with Russia. Besides, Russia’s embedding its influence in Africa and further afield in a calculated attempt to establish a multi-polar, as contradistinguished from an American-led, unipolar world order. It’s no surprise that Wagner’s footprints are demonstrably evident in the Central African Republic, Libya, Mozambique and Sudan.

There is no compelling evidence, and therefore no direct causal nexus, affirming that recent coup d’états in Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger have necessarily cut ethno-religious terrorism. According to Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED), in March 2022, 790 civilians were killed in Mali, including those killed by the local branch of Islamic State, Menaka. Burkina Faso’s scarcely different. Since 2015, 1.4 million people have been displaced and religious terrorists in 2021 alone caused 2000 deaths (New York Times).

In short, 28 after years after Captain Blaise Compaore’s bloody coup in 1987, in which Captain Thomas Sankara was murdered, enduring peace still eludes Burkina Faso till this day.

The effects of the legacy of arbitrary colonial boundaries in Africa, which effectively displaced relatively linguistically and geographically homogenous ethnic nationalities, deep mistrust amongst tribes, ethno-religious conflicts, growing food and physical insecurity, and the emanating poverty, combined, constrains bold predictions that there can ever be a singular panacea against coup d’états on the continent. Put differently, it falls within the realms of known unknowns to prognosticate on whether, or when, or where, another coup d’état will occur in Africa.

Notwithstanding, the odds favour a democratically elected administration that’s accountable, empathic, consistently delivers on campaign promises regarding the security of lives and property; effective financial stewardship, tangible deliverables in education, healthcare and social infrastructure, investments, job creation, sound economic management under a transformative leader. The premise is simple: these are people-oriented policies and, the effective implementation therein will, in all probability, undermine the basis of any would-be coup plot.

Now then, undermining the basis of any coup plot does not, inexorably, eliminate the risk of a coup attempt for whatever reason. Rightly, economic andpolitical stability, public confidenceand security are indispensable conditions for economic growth and prosperity. And this is precisely where regional bodies like the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) can play a crucial, informed and stabilising role.

By its very definition, ECOWAS is an economic partnership. It is not and was not intended to be a military alliance like NATO! That said, and because nature abhors a vacuum, ECOWAS in 1990, established the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group (ECOMOG), a multi-lateraldefence initiative modelled along NATO’s lines largely resourced by Nigerian troops and equipment with sub-platoons from Gambia, Ghana, Sierra Leone, Liberia et al.

Scholarly opinions are mixed as to ECOMOG’s accomplishments however, it is incontestable that it played a crucial role in halting the Liberian civil war and represented a significant attempt at regional stability. ECOMOG was subsumed by the ECOWAS Mission in Liberia (ECOMIL) which, itself, resurrected as United Nations International Stabilisation Force effective January 1, 2003.

On Niger, ECOWAS needs to tread extremely carefully following its decision on July 30, 2023, threatening the use of force if the democratically elected leader, Mohammed Bazoum, is not immediately released and reinstated. The region is currently bedevilled by extremist terrorism which the 15-bloc group has barely contained collectively and individually.

There is a real question as to whether the bloc possesses the financial, logistical, and military capacity to enforce its will in Niger, given conflicting priorities of managing crippling national debts and poverty. Plus, there will be a credibility gap, if ECOWAS launches military action against Niger, it failed to do that in earlier coups in Burkina Faso and Mali.

Of course, doing nothing is not an option, but whatever decisions are taken, demand serious strategic thinking. Outside parties may promise external support, but in practice, they hardly ever commit their own armies to support African wars which they perceive offer little strategic benefits.

Summing up, there is no silver bullet against the risk of coups in Africa. The risk mitigation lies in demonstrably effective leadership, sound governance, prudent financial management, the security of lives and property; a clear separation of state and religion; people centric policies and sound economic management.

Ojumu is the Principal Partner at Balliol Myers LP, a firm of legal practitioners and strategy consultants in Lagos, Nigeria.