President Tinubu’s 100 days

This column on Wednesday, January 11, 2023, “2023 Elections: The battle for the soul of Nigeria”, advanced, inter alia, some posers on pertinent evaluation metrics by which the eventual winner of Nigeria’s February 25, 2023 Presidential elections would be quickly judged by the electorate in the first 100 days. Of course, the outcome of the election was unpredictable, and therefore unknown, at the time I wrote that piece. The quandaries included whether: the winner could hit the ground running;heassembled a formidable team of subject matter experts to intelligently solve complex societal challenges; dilatory tactics were employed?

Fast forward! President Bola Tinubu remains Nigeria’s de facto and de jure democratically elected leader, notwithstanding the fact that challenging, opposition parties,reserve the constitutional freedom to exercise their rights of appeal against the Tribunal’s decision to the final appellate court, Nigeria’s Supreme Court. There is nothing exceptional about the first 100 days of any political administration. It simply provides a snapshot of accomplishments, lacunas and priorities. Nevertheless, it remains an important barometer for evaluating competence, judgment, leadership, nimbleness and performance at a point in time, as perceived by the public.John Milton’s (1608-1674) Paradise Regained, “the child shews the man, as the morning shews the day” captures the poetic resonance therein.

Constitutional reform
One of the President’s first seminal acts on June 8, 2023,was to sign an amendment to the 1999 Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (Fifth Amendment) (Number 37), 2023, into law. Pursuant to that signing, the constitutional inconsistency in the retirement age and pensions rights of judicial officers, was legally cured.

Hitherto, section 291 (1) of the Constitution established that a judicial officer appointed to the Supreme Court or the Court of Appeal may retire upon attaining the age of 65 years and shall cease to hold office at the age of 70 years. Curiously, subsection (2), therein stipulated that a judge of any other court, like the State High Court, Federal High Court or the National Industrial Court, other than the Supreme Court or the Court of Appeal, may retire at the age of 60 years and shall cease to hold office at the age of 65 years.

With the execution of the new law, the retirement of all judges is now 70 years. There are other major constitutional and institutional issues which need to be addressed notably, the devolution of police powers;root and branch reform of the national youth service corps 50 years on from its establishment to make it fit for purpose; the effective deployment of technology in crime detection/prevention; operational digitisation interface between government and citizens vis-à-vis primary healthcare diagnosis, accessing passports, vehicle registration particulars et al. These have the potential to reduce transaction costs and the costs of governance.

Economics
The President has signalled an intention to transform the Nigerian economy away from the perennial monocultural dependence on crude oil exports. Afterall, approximately 90 per centof foreign exchange earnings, and approximately 66 per cent of the government’s revenue stems from petroleum exports. OPEC established that through 2017 to 2021, the country earned over $206 billion from crude oil exports; $37.9 billion in 2017, $54.5 billion in 2018 and $45.1 billion in 2019.

The exceptional aftershocks of COVID-19 in 2020 yielded lower returns for the country at $27.3 billion. Still, that rose to $41.3 billion in 2021. Notwithstanding, crude oil exports constitute below 10 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Plus, the underpinning supply chain, from the extraction of crude in the Niger Delta, to its exportto Europe, United States and beyond; to the reimportation thereof, as refined petroleum products to the country, has been funded by Nigerian taxpayers via a super expensive fuel subsidy regime at a cost of approximately N7 trillion or $15.1 billion! This defies rational economic logic.

Barely a week after the President’s swearing-in, this column on June 7, 2023, objectively recommended, inter alia, a review of the “opaque and costly subsidy regime whilst proactively engaging key stakeholders and unions…any policy decision to scrap the petroleum subsidy should, reasonably, factor in effective risk mitigation plans to cushion the effects on vulnerable Nigerians barely eking a living on a moribund monthly minimum wage of N30, 000 or $65…”

To its credit, the administration scrapped the uber-costly subsidy regime and introduced an economic counterbalance to mitigate the economic aftershocks thereof on citizens via what is often characterised as “palliative measures”. That entailed a whopping $3 billion Emergency African-Import Export bank loan. That N5 billion’s being disbursed to all the sub-nationals. This policy decision splits opinions sharply. Protagonists point to the fact that doing nothing against was a complete no-brainer and that leadership is as much about humaneness, as it is about taking tough decisions for longer-term gains.

Antagonists, opine that additional borrowing was saddling the country/future generations with greater debt. The policy synthesis is that patently something had to be done even if imperfect, and even if on an interim basis, whilst proactively engaging key stakeholders notably the NLC, citizens et-al.

Philosophically, borrowing, in of itself, is not inherently bad. The critical issuesare whether the policy objective is borrowing to invest and, if so, whether there is in fact, a coherent and robust plan for repayment,underpinned by robust financial stewardship. The administration adopts the view that there is an effective repayment plan in place ditto robust financial stewardship.

Whilst a policy decision has been taken to optimise fiscal revenues and cut the costs of governance, the rather deoxygenated phrase, “economic diversification” appears to have been reoxygenated. The policy aim is to reactivate the Nigerian solid minerals sector which, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG) is valued at $35 billion. The sector makes a micro-fractional contribution of under 2 per cent to GDP as contrasted with the 10 per cent Sub-Saharan African average. The material point is that there is a serious attempt at economic diversification and a paradoxical future-now transition away from a monocultural crude oil dependency mindset.

Defence and national insecurity
Without the security of life and property, there can be no country. Inferentially, the more insecure a country is, the faster its race to being a failed state. The overriding duty of the government therefore is the security of life and property:section-14 (2) b of the Constitution: “the security and welfare of the people shall be the primary purpose of government.”

Discharging this overriding constitutional duty has perennially eluded previous administrations and to assume that there is a magic wand which the incumbent President could wave to make terrorism disappear – in 100 days – is quite fanciful.

That said, because others have failed to systemically and sustainably tackle, and defeat terrorism, is no reason for the current administration not to devise holistic kinetic and non-kinetic strategies to effect a sustainable victory against vicious, violent, virulent outlaws and ethno-religious terrorists.

Mr President really should declare a state of emergency on terrorism in the country. Afterall, the President during his inaugural address on May 29, 2023 confirmed that: “security shall be the top priority of our administration because neither prosperity nor justice can prevail amidst insecurity and violence. To effectively tackle this menace, we shall reform both our security doctrine and its architecture…invest more in our security personnel …provide better training, equipment, pay and firepower”. Now, Mr President must walk his talk.

In perspective, only in September 2023, a 70-year-old man, Zachary Maduka was decapitated in the Amalechi Akpukpa axis of Abia State; gunmen kidnapped a poet, Kennedy Adele, in Port Harcourt, and have threatened to kill him unless a ransom of N20 million is paid; terrorists attacked Kulben community in Mangu, Plateau State killing 10 people; the Divisional Police Officer in Ahoada, Rivers State, Bako Angbashim, was brutally murdered by cultists.Na’Aman Danlami Stephen was murdered by terrorists on the evening of September 7 after a group of terrorists attacked the rectory of Saint Raphael Parish where he was living in the town of Fadan Kamanta, Kaduna state.

On August 22, 2023, eight graduates travelling from Akwa Ibom State to Sokoto State, were kidnapped by terrorists en-route the NYSC orientation camp at the latter state. Barely a week earlier on August 14, 2023, 22 gallant military officers and soldiers of the Nigerian armed forces were killed by terrorists in Shiroro, Niger-State. On March 8, 2022 in Sabaka and Wasagu/Danko, Kebbi-State, terrorists killed at least 62 people including 13 soldiers and five policemen. Barely a fortnight later on April 10, 2022, terrorists killed over 70 people in coordinated attacks in the Kanam and Wase local government areas of Plateau State. In January 2022 terrorist attacks, in Zamfara-State killed over 200 people!

Sovereign debts
A three-year trend analysis from Q3 2020 through Q3 2022, demonstrates that the country’s total debt, comprising domestic and external debt stock of the Federal Government, State Governments and the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) in each of those years was; N31 trillion ($85.89 billion) in 2020; N38 trillion ($92.6 billion) in 2021; and N44.6 trillion ($101.9 billion) in 2022. Thus, the debt profile has risen by 42.1 per cent between 2020 and 2022! The Debt Management Office affirms that the increase in 2022 was especially due to new borrowing by the Federal Government to part-finance the deficit in the 2022 Appropriation Act plus, new borrowings by sub-nationals. As of 30 June 2023, Nigeria’s debt overhang was N87.39 trillion ($113.42 billion).

How will these be sustainably managed without compromising essential investments in frontline services, education, healthcare and policing services and not saddling succeeding generations with debts? The appointment of ex-Citibank chief, Yemi Cardoso, as the new Central Bank Governor is strategic given his professional track record. Notwithstanding, he will work within a tense political context and necessarily invoke all his financial stewardship and negotiation expertise to navigate the choppy waters of Nigeria’s dire financials.

Foreign relations
Mr President was immediately put to the test as the Chair of ECOWAS, the 15-nation regional economic bloc, with conflicting member states’ views on taking military action against the Nigerien putschists led by General Tchiani. The latter toppled the democratically elected regime of President Bazoum on July 26, 2023. Mr President issued a seven-day ultimatum against the military dictatorship demanding Bazoum’s return power or risk military action. That ultimatum came and went and nothing happened. Although the optics were sub-optimal, realistically, Nigeria, was barely in any serious position to launch a military invasion against its Nigerien neighbour.

Besides, such a decision lacked the support of the Nigerian people and was bound be a figurative flying elephant. Importantly, the subtle distinction made by President Tinubu’s team that the decision was taken in his role as ECOWAS Chairman, not Nigeria’s president, cut very little ice with most people. The key point however, is that public statements carry a lot of weight in diplomatic relations. Plus, an admixture of chicanery, realpolitik andtact are indispensable.

Conclusion
The 100 days have been a mixed bag. Courageous decisions have been taken regarding subsidy removal, limiting sharp arbitrage practices; practical risk management measures to mitigate the subsidy removal and active stakeholder engagement. Investor confidence is rising too. That’s all work in progress and must continue with reasonable expectations on all sides. Insecurity remains an enduring concern. It is recommended that a state of emergency be declared to tackle terrorism, banditry and kidnapping across the country.

Greater political savviness will be always required on the diplomatic front to manage Nigeria’s external relations. Plus, competence and pragmatism appear to have underpinned strategic appointments devoid of dilatory tactics. An opposition party member is a serving minister, youths and women are serving in the cabinet. Likewise, there is ample representation of all geo-political zones in appointments thus far.

It is a far from perfection and there’s more to do. However, it would be completely disingenuous to claim that no attempt has been made at nation building.
Ojumu is Principal Partner at Balliol Myers LP, a firm of legal practitioners in Lagos, Nigeria.