‘Russia seizes almost 200 km2 of Ukraine in July’

Russia consolidated its territory gains in eastern Ukraine in July, taking control of almost 200 square kilometres (77 square miles), according to an AFP analysis on Wednesday.

The analysis, based on data from the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), shows an increase over the previous month but a big slowdown compared to May, when Russian forces launched a ground offensive in the border region of Kharkiv, which has since been stopped.

In that month Russian forces seized 449 square kilometres, an average of 14.5 square kilometres per day, their biggest monthly gains since March 2022, just after President Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion of Ukraine.

Since the beginning of 2024, Russia has conquered 1,246 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory, well above the 584 square kilometres seized over the whole of 2023.

But that represents just 0.2 percent of Ukraine’s territory in 2014, when Ukraine descended into war as pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine began to fight for independence. And it has not resulted in a decisive breakthrough for Moscow’s forces.

From July 1 to July 30, Russian forces conquered 198 square kilometres, or an average of 6.6 square kilometres per day.

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More than three-quarters, or 155 square kilometres, are in the eastern region of Donetsk, parts of which have been controlled by Kremlin-backed separatists since 2014.

The region is a springboard for Russia as it seeks to seize Pokrovsk, Toretsk and Chasiv Yar, as they prepare attacks on Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

In June, Russia had seized 129 square kilometres, or 4.3 square kilometres per day.

Since the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia has taken 65,776 square kilometres of Ukrainian territory.

If territory already annexed by Russia such as the Crimean peninsula and eastern zones already under Russian control before the invasion are included, Russian now occupies 107,956 square kilometres or 18 percent of Ukraine according to its internationally recognised borders.

AFP’s calculations are based on information provided by a daily ISW report that relies on public information published by the two warring sides and satellite images.