Experts urge action to halt global surge in cancer, deaths by 2050

Experts have reported that global cancer cases are expected to increase to 35.3 million, indicating a 76.6 per cent surge in global cases, as well as cancer deaths projected to rise by 89.7 per cent to kill 18.5 million by 2050.

Led by Charles Sturt University Bathurst, Australia and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) Network Open, the research identified widening disparities between low Human Development Index (HDI) and high HDI countries, sounding the alarm for urgent action in cancer prevention and care worldwide.

The researchers analysed data from 36 cancer types across 185 countries and territories using the Global Cancer Observatory database and found that disparities are particularly stark between countries with different HDI levels.

The HDI measure used reflects a country’s average health, education, and income achievements and the researchers organised the data by demographic factors such as age groups, sex, and geographic regions.

The low HDI countries revealed a 142.1 per cent increase in cases and a 146.1 per cent increase in deaths by 2050 while in contrast; very high HDI countries are expected to experience only a 41.7 per cent increase in cases and a 56.8 per cent increase in deaths.

Using the mortality-to-incidence ratio (MIR) model, which was calculated by dividing the number of cancer deaths by the number of new cancer cases; a higher MIR suggested that more people diagnosed with cancer are dying from it, indicating poorer survival rates.

The researchers collected data on how many people are getting cancer and how many are dying from it in relation to the total population, adjusting these numbers to account for differences in age distributions among populations.

The results revealed that Africa is expected to experience the most significant increase in cancer cases and deaths, with projections of a 139.4 per cent rise in cases and a 146.7 per cent rise in deaths by 2050 while Europe is projected to have the lowest increase in cancer cases (24.6 per cent) and deaths (36.4 per cent).

Variations in cancer burden were also observed across regions, age groups, and sexes with males having higher incidence and mortality rates projected to widen by up to 16 per cent by 2050.

While the MIR for all cancers stood at 46.6 per cent in 2022, indicating that nearly half of all diagnosed cancer cases resulted in death; a higher MIRs were noted for pancreatic cancer with 89.4 per cent and 51.7 per cent among males.

All the projected increases were relative to the 2022 baseline figures of 20 million cancer cases and 9.7 million deaths, indicating a substantial rise in cancer cases and deaths globally.

Despite high incidence rates, high HDI countries have lower MIRs, suggesting better survival rates due to advanced healthcare infrastructure and access to early detection and treatment services while low HDI countries face challenges in these areas contributing to the higher MIRs.

The overall study revealed that males are projected to face a higher increase in cancer cases by 84.3 per cent and 93.2 per cent deaths by 2050 compared to females, who are expected to see increases of 68.5 per cent in cases and 85.2 per cent in deaths.

The researchers noted that factors contributing to this disparity may include higher exposure to modifiable risk factors such as tobacco and alcohol use among males, as well as underuse of screening and treatment options when available.

They called for overall improvement in the healthcare system to strengthen access and quality, including universal health insurance coverage for prevention, early diagnosis, management, and treatment of cancer which would improve clinical outcomes and slow the projected trends.