UPDATED: Nigerians experience monetary respite as food inflation eases to 39.84%

Nigeria’s galloping food inflation eased to 39.84 per cent in December 2024 from the 39.93 per cent recorded in November, according to the consumer price index (CPI) data released yesterday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

The NBS also reports that December headline inflation rose marginally by 0.20 per cent to 34.80 per cent from 34.60 per cent in November.

However, the NBS data shows that the average annual rate of food inflation for the 12 months ending December 2024, compared to the previous 12-month average, was 39.12 per cent, which was 11.16 percentage points higher than the average annual rate of change recorded in December 2023, which was 27.96 per cent.

Marginal as this drop may be, it is a sign of hope for many families that have been looking forward to a time when their meagre income can buy them three square meals a day.

Nigeria has experienced a persistent rise in food inflation, which hit a peak of 40.9 per cent year-on-year in June 2024 before dropping momentarily to 33.40 per cent in July 2024 and further down to 32.15 per cent in August 2024, driven essentially by the harvest season at the time.

It, however, resumed an upward trend in September when it jumped to 37.77 per cent and further to 39.16 per cent and 39.93 per cent in October and November, respectively.

The December drop, which comes at a time when the government, in its 2025 budget proposal, targets headline inflation of 15 per cent, gives some hope, but how long that can hold out remains unclear.

According to the NBS report, the drop in food inflation was driven essentially by the drop in the prices of some essential food items like yam, potatoes, rice, millet, maize flour, and cocoyam, among others, which form part of their harvest season in December.

The question many are asking is: what happens when the planting season sets in by March?
In July last year, the federal government introduced a food import duty waiver to waive import duties on essential food items like maize, rice, wheat, and cowpeas. The window period ended in December 2024.

However, due to poor implementation and bureaucratic complexities, the policy didn’t quite achieve its intended goals.

There might still be a glimmer of hope, as a recent report indicates that Nigeria has received a shipment of 32,000 tons of brown rice from Thailand as part of efforts by the government to combat rising food costs in the country.

The level of hunger in the land is alarming. Late last year, the World Food Programme (WFP), an agency of the United Nations, announced that 33 million Nigerians could face acute hunger in 2025, an increase from the 25 million citizens who faced starvation in 2024.

Analysts have warned that food imports are not a solution to the high cost of food in the country, insisting that unless farmers are supported to return to their farms, the country will continue to experience food shortages.

Part of the challenges has been insecurity, which has made it difficult for farmers to go to their farms, and the lack of adequate input support for farmers from the government.

The National President of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN), Arc. Kabir Ibrahim, in his New Year message to Nigerian farmers, said Nigeria is on the cusp of experiencing a major catastrophe of food insecurity if extreme care is not taken, judging from the macroeconomic instability arising from currency volatility, insecurity, climate change, and inequity.

He advised that the attainment of food sufficiency for Nigerians in the first quarter of 2025 may be the elixir for the continued existence of Nigeria as a working unit.

He said, “I say this with all sense of responsibility, having been involved in agricultural advocacy for the better part of my 66 years on earth.

“In 2025, we must coalesce as stakeholders/farmers with the government to get Nigeria out of the stranglehold of hunger and extreme poverty.

“We can only do this if we work as a unified body with common interests and operate from common ground.”