Handset evolution to drive 5G in Nigeria, others

•Nigerians consume 870,398.28 terabytes of data in October

For improved Fifth Generation (5G) penetration in Nigeria and other parts of Africa, handset evolution and its affordability, coupled network rollouts in urban areas by service providers, have been projected to be very crucial.

Swedish telecoms firm, Ericsson, in its November Mobility Report, noted that 5G would make up 33 per cent of total mobile subscriptions in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) by the end of the decade.

Ericsson predicted that overall mobile subscriptions in SSA would grow at a yearly rate of four per cent, increasing from 950 million in 2023 to 1.2 billion by 2030.

According to it, the strongest growth will come from 5G subscriptions, which are forecasted to rise from 11 million in 2023 to 420 million by the end of 2030, a growth rate of 59 per cent yearly.

In Nigeria, statistics from the Nigerian Communications Commission (NCC) put 5G penetration as of October 2024 at 2.33 per cent, which means that that 3, 658, 100 telecoms subscribers of the 157 million are currently on 5G network in Nigeria, two years after its launch in the country.

Ericsson, however, hinged the growth of 5G technology on handset evolution and network rollouts in urban areas.

While October NCC statistics put 4G at 46.27 per cent in Nigeria, Ericsson reported that by 2030, 4G subscriptions will account for 35 per cent of total mobile subscriptions, with 2G and 3G subscriptions expected to decline as the shift to 4G and 5G networks continues in the region.

Currently in Nigeria, three operators with the 5G licences, MTN, Mafab Communications and Airtel, are expanding the service across the country. While the impact of MTN and Airtel appeared visible, currently in over 30 cities of the country, not much can be said of Mafab for now.

VP and head of networks at Ericsson Middle East and Africa, Ante Mihovilovic, said in a statement about the findings: “Driven by a young and dynamic population, the increasing affordability of smartphones and the growing demand for mobile data and advanced services, the November 2024 edition of the Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the significant growth potential of mobile subscriptions in Sub-Saharan Africa by 2030.”

Ericsson said the mobile growth was due to handset evolution and network rollouts in urban areas.

Mihovilovic also predicted that the region would make notable strides in connectivity and digital transformation, continuing the diversification into financial technology, particularly mobile money services, and fixed wireless access (FWA).

Spotlighting the importance of smartphone to digitisation, the report disclosed that the number of smartphones in SSA was expected to rise from 540 million in 2024 to 880 million by 2030, further driving demand for data-intensive services.

The researchers also highlighted that mobile data traffic per active smartphone was projected to grow from 5.4GB per month in 2024 to 17GB per month in 2030 in the region, representing a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 21 per cent.