NESG projects 5.5% GDP growth in 2025 amid stabilisation reforms 

Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG) has released a report, listing the expected outcomes of effective stabilisation reforms in 2025.

The 2025 Macroeconomic Outlook report, tagged ‘Stabilisation in Transition: Rethinking Reform Strategies for 2025 and Beyond’, has projected a 5.5 per cent surge in the GDP growth rate in 2025, with the implementation of effective stabilisation measures.

The report states that key drivers, such as enhanced electricity supply and improved fuel availability, resulting in lower fuel prices, are anticipated to significantly reduce business disruptions, particularly for Nano, Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (NMSMEs), thereby boosting productivity and overall economic performance.

It also highlights that improved foreign exchange availability will sustain operations in the manufacturing sector, which depends on imported raw and intermediate inputs.

In agriculture, addressing financing, storage, warehousing and logistics challenges will bolster sectoral performance, while the oil and gas sector will remain critical not just for growth, but also as a significant contributor to foreign exchange inflows, external balance resilience and government revenue.

The report also predicts a 24.7 per cent decline in the inflation rate this year, signalling an improvement in the country’s macroeconomic stability.

It explained that the effective coordination of fiscal policies with monetary policy measures will drive an anticipated reduction in the inflation rate, adding that a relatively stable foreign exchange (forex) market, resulting from improved forex supply and reduced speculative demand, will also play a pivotal role in curbing inflation.

“The anticipated enhanced productivity dynamics across key economic sectors, particularly agriculture, are expected to contribute significantly to the projected ease in inflationary pressure in 2025.

“Increased agricultural output will improve food supply, address scarcity and ease food price pressures, which constitute significant drivers of inflation in Nigeria. Additionally, improved security in major food-producing regions will ensure better access to farmlands and supply chains, further stabilising food prices,” the report states.

The report emphasised that improved energy supply, including reliable electricity and steady fuel availability, is another critical factor in reducing inflation, while a more stable energy environment will minimise production disruptions and lower operational costs for businesses, especially in manufacturing and small enterprises.

In addition, the report projected the exchange rate to strengthen, estimating an average of N1,300 to one U.S. dollar in 2025.

This anticipated improvement reflects the combined impact of higher crude oil sales, expanded manufacturing output due to the resuscitation of the oil refining sub-sector and increased agricultural production, all contributing to enhanced forex earnings.

Giving the keynote speech at the launch of the report, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Yemi Cardoso, said the growth rate of the global economy declined to 3.2 per cent in 2024 from 3.3 per cent in 2023.

Cardoso, who spoke on ‘The CBN Strategic Reform Agenda for the Nigerian Economy in 2025,’ noted that the economy had been impacted by several years of mismanagement, adding that the broad money supply grew 13 per cent on average between 2018 and 2023, while, on the other hand, GDP only grew by 1.8 per cent.