West African bloc’s future uncertain as three key members quit

The withdrawal of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso from the Economic Community of West African States takes effect on Wednesday after a year of political tensions, fracturing the region and leaving the bloc with an uncertain future.

On January 29, 2024, the three countries led by military regimes formally notified ECOWAS of their desire for “immediate” withdrawal. But the texts of the West African organisation required one-year’s notice for it to be effective.

This will happen on Wednesday, all three countries having ignored ECOWAS’s call to extend the period by six months to try to find a solution.

Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger are now united in a confederation called the Alliance of Sahel States (AES).

Their military rulers accuse ECOWAS of having imposed “inhuman, illegal and illegitimate” sanctions against them after the coups that brought them to power.

They also believe that the West African organisation has not helped them enough to fight jihadist violence. ECOWAS, they argue, is subservient to their former colonial ruler France.

Paris has become the common enemy of these juntas, which now favour partnerships with countries such as Russia, Turkey and Iran.

– A weakened ECOWAS –

The rupture was sparked by the July 2023 coup in Niger. ECOWAS threatened to intervene militarily to reinstate the deposed president and imposed heavy economic sanctions on Niamey, which have now been lifted.

The three countries will put their own common passport into circulation on Wednesday and have announced a unified army of 5,000 men to fight the jihadists soon.

The loss of three founding members will “weaken ECOWAS’s ability to regulate political crises in the regional area”, Gilles Yabi, founder of the West African think tank Wathi, told AFP.

The AES and some ECOWAS countries are now at loggerheads. Niger refuses to open its border with Benin, which it accuses of hosting bases where jihadists train, while accusing its Nigerian neighbour of “serving as a rear base” to “destabilise” it.

Both countries deny the accusations of their landlocked neighbour.

– Togo, Ghana woo AES –

In the sub-region, the diplomatic cards have been reshuffled, with the role of Togo boosted.

As well as playing the role of mediator, its port in the capital Lome supplies the landlocked countries of the AES.

For Yabi, Togo has a “short-term vision”, based on “calculations of economic interests” that will “weaken ECOWAS”.

Togo’s foreign minister recently declared his country did not rule out joining the AES.

If ECOWAS loses a fourth member such as Togo, with maritime access, “we can wonder in what state it will be able to survive”, said Rinaldo Depagne, deputy Africa director at the International Crisis Group (ICG).

The AES “is trying to convince other countries that ECOWAS does not work and that they are a credible alternative…,” said one diplomatic source. “They have understood that they could not survive alone.”

Ghana, under the newly elected President John Dramani Mahama, is also reaching out to the AES. He has met its leaders and announced that he will name an envoy to the new bloc.

“The new president does not have the same position of principle towards the coups as his predecessors,” said the ICG’s Depagne.

“The question that arises now is whether we can be with the AES and with ECOWAS at the same time.”

– ‘New ECOWAS’ –

The rupture has sparked debate on the need for the West African bloc to “return to its strictly economic agenda and abandon the principles of law and democracy”, said Yabi.

“Everyone is aware of the need for ECOWAS reform, towards an ECOWAS of the people,” said one former West African minister who has the ear of the Sahelian juntas.

“The AES can be a laboratory and could remain a member of a new reformed ECOWAS,” he added.

Despite the rupture, said Yabi, we must strengthen relations between the AES and ECOWAS countries, to “preserve economic relations” and face security challenges.

The jihadist violence that has caused tens of thousands of deaths in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso in a decade has also spread to the coastal countries of ECOWAS, notably Benin and Togo.