2023: Expectations on the economy

To hold that Nigeria is in a dire strait economically and that its next president has an unenviable task to fix it, is an understatement. Besides the electorate expecting an end to challenges of insecurity, they expect a leader with a magic wand to upturn fortunes of the economy, effectively deal with fuel subsidy dilemma, its seemingly intractable power debacle, weak Naira and restore hope, among others. Unfortunately, the next president shall not enjoy the luxury of time to impress; nor the public patience erstwhile accorded to his predecessors. Are the contestants ready for this herculean task? Are they equipped for it and have they the right dose of enthusiasm to grapple with the problem?

Naturally, Nigerians who have been on the receiving end of economic depression are interested in the future of the economy, especially as it affects inflation, growth and employment. With the parlous state of the nation’s economy, presidential candidates eyeing 2023 will need to convince the electorate on how to overcome challenges of high inflation, rising debts, dwindling revenue, high unemployment, rising insecurity among others. To a discerning candidate, this is not the best time to become Nigeria’s president.

Rationally, the boom-and-bust cycles that are inherent in capitalist economies depend on forces that are independent of any president’s actions. For instance, the last global recession and present inflation were largely influenced by the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine crisis. None of these is within the capacity and influence of the president. However, when the same party controls the executive and legislative branches of government, policy is likely to move in one direction, reducing the threat of a presidential veto. In addition, the president can shape the policies of agencies and ministries to align with campaign policies. Without external influence, the president bears the burden of failed policies and what befalls the economy.
   
The next president must deal with the subsidy issue and make a decision once and for all. Spending over N4 trillion that the country does not have on subsidies is one of the most expensive populist decisions made by past and current administrations. Alongside inflation and high unemployment rate, Nigerians cannot commute from one part of the country to another for fear of being killed or kidnapped; at such a vulnerable time when a dollar is over N600 at the parallel market, and when over 13 million children are out of school. Major economic reform initiatives have been practically stalled because of the perceived political cost of such decisions as the government has rather opted for populist policies at a heavy cost to the economy.

In 2023, Nigerians will look to one of the presidential candidates to determine who will lead the country through one of the worst challenging times aggravated by the COVID-19 pandemic and global crisis. His job will be to work for Nigerians for the Nigeria that they seek. This job is neither for the frail nor faint-hearted. Going by what Nigerians have experienced in the last few years from people who see the presidency as an ambition or one of the items on their bucket list, it is time Nigerians asked the difficult questions rather than compensate anyone for running. Nigeria has some of the best brains in the world and has never been devoid of good ideas to make the nation better. Implementation of the lofty ideas, however, remains the challenge.

It is also high time citizens go beyond Twitter and money politics to choose a candidate that will secure their future. The 2023 election is the battle for the soul of Nigeria. Money should not be the defining criteria for choosing a leader. The president is also the most powerful individual in most countries. Who is elected in February could make a big difference in how the economy performs, how income is divided up and how much protection the working class has over the next four years and beyond. Protection should be both in terms of safety of lives and properties as well as from assets depreciation across all classes.