Bazoum’s ousting: Don’t turn Niger into another Libya

It is still fresh in our minds how the military alliance of NATO, facilitated by France with the support of some Arab countries invaded Libya in 2011, ousted and killed the then President Muammar Gaddafi. All this was in the name of protecting the civilian population so as to avoid humanitarian crises, which may have ensued during the mass protest against the long-standing Gaddafi’s Military regime.

In the last couple of years, the sacking of democratically-elected government by military juntas in Africa especially, the Sahel region, has been on the increase like a raging wildfire, without any sign of abating.

It happened in Niger Republic, after occurring in Mali, Burkina Faso, Sudan, and Chad, between 2020 and now. Before, I didn’t take interest in commenting on this unfolding saga, but as a student of Defense and Security Studies in one of the finest Military Universities in Africa, it behoves me to break the silence now that the event is taking another dimension, which is crucial to determining the continued existence of Niger, as a corporate entity.

Recall that, both the continental and regional organisations in Africa, the African Union (AU) and the Economic Community of West Africa States, (ECOWAS) have issued separate ultimatums to the coup plotters to reverse their action or face consequences. Specifically, ECOWAS has mulled the possibility of authorizing a military operation in the event that the Juntas failed to reinstate President Bazoum upon expiration of the ultimatum.

In reaction, the coup plotters have already warned ECOWAS to stay clear of Niger Republic affairs, adding that their decision to seize power remain unchanged adding that “we are determined to protect our homeland against any incursion.” To further demonstrate their defiance and to prepare for a showdown of military prowess, the Juntas have already appealed to Russia for military assistance in case of invasion by the allied forces of West African countries.

However, this writer is worried about the consequences of unintended use of military force to achieve political objectives without post-conflict reconstruction and rehabilitation plans. Libya is a perfect example that can be considered as a case study. The country is now in a devastating condition without a centrally unified government courtesy of resurgence of extremist groups and arms proliferation in the hands of criminals.

Let us briefly flash our memory back to the Arab Spring uprisings which ensued about 12 years ago in countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Syria. The uprising has had more effect in Libya to the extent that it led to UN military intervention. The Libyan intervention took place in 2011 when the citizens rose up against the long-standing dictatorship of Muammar Gaddafi, thereby demanding political reforms and greater freedoms. 

However, Gaddafi responded with a violent crackdown, leading to a deteriorating humanitarian situation and concerns about a potential massacre. In response, the international community, led by Western powers, called for action to protect civilians and prevent a humanitarian disaster under the UN concept of Responsibility to Protect (R2P). R2P asserts that “states have a responsibility to protect their populations from mass atrocities, and when a state fails to do so, the international community can intervene.”

Not only R2P, the politics surrounding the intervention in Libya were complex and multifaceted. Some other key factors that facilitated the action included geopolitical interest because some Western nations considered that as an opportunity to support the Libyan opposition and potentially establish a more favourable regime that will dance to their tune. 

Also, the Arab League played a critical role in the scenario, because its support for the intervention added regional legitimacy to the operation.
Although China and Russia- two among the five permanent members of UN Security Council voiced out their reservation against the use of military force on Libya, NATO forces, with support from Arab and non-NATO members went ahead and conducted airstrikes to enforce the no-fly zone in the name of protecting civilians- the same civilians that are still counting the losses being incurred courtesy of that barbaric operations. Recall that the outcome and aftermath of Libya intervention was that Ghaddafi was overthrown and subsequently killed but Libya is still facing significant challenges in the post-conflict phase. 

This is because of the absence of a robust stabilisation and reconstruction plan which led to political fragmentation, increased violence, and the emergence of extremist groups that dispersed across the African continent including Nigeria thereby adding to the security woes in the region.

Report indicated that a lot of Libyan rebels later joined ISWAP/Boko Haram camps as fighters in Nigeria while a host of others joined several extremist Jihadists groups including Al Qaeda, ISIS and Al-Shabab of Somalia.

Since that intervention, Libya had never been the same country that it used to be prior to that military operation. The country is in chaos, due to insecurity and inadequate political reforms. These are the consequences of unintended use of military force in a particular soil without a feasible and prudent post-conflict plan for reconstruction and rehabilitation.

God forbid, but the same scenario may likely ensue in Niger Republic if ECOWAS and other western nations who are drumming for military operations do not think twice in their actions. The aftermath of the event will be disastrous as more Smaller Arms and Light Weapons (SALWs) will find their way into the hands of the non-state actors and that will further worsen the insecurity currently bedeviling the region.

Believe me, of all the neighboring countries surrounding Niger Republics, Nigeria will be worst hit in terms of insecurity and humanitarian crises. Because, weapons and displaced masses will eventually find their way into Nigeria through our porous land borders around the states of Katsina, Jigawa, Sokoto, Zamfara and Yobe.

However, with the recent unfolding of the event, it seems like an ECOWAS conducting military operations on Niger will be like a recipe of war within the entire Africa region. Because, the Junta-led of Burkina Faso and Mali had recently thrown their weight behind the Niger coup plotters. The two military dictators warned that any military intervention in Niger to restore deposed President Mohamed Bazoum would be tantamount to a “declaration of war against their two countries.” In a joint statement, they added that the “disastrous consequences of a military intervention in Niger… could destabilise the entire region.”

Even though all the arrows are pointing towards a possible military clash, in spite of that, Niger and its citizens can still be saved from this avoidable disastrous situation. The effectiveness of using military force to achieve political objectives is still a debatable topic among pundits due to the consequences that usually accompany its aftermath as we have noticed in Libya.

Instead, the UN, AU and ECOWAS should engage the juntas through a peaceful dialogue for a smooth transition of power back to the hands of democratically-elected government. It is only through that we can avoid having another Libya in Niger. ‘Stitch in time saves nine.’
Mukhtar, a public commentator, is the author of a book on ‘National Security Strategy.’ He wrote from Kano via [email protected]