Presidential monologue – Part 5

This instalment is about the free fall of the naira, Nigeria’s national currency. Mr. President, let me tell you that the value of a country’s currency is an element of its national power. Nigeria is not faring well on all fronts, except by default in selected areas. For example, some Nigerians in the diaspora are doing well in the countries they emigrated to, and have found their goodluck to the policy circles of those countries.

Right from the inception of our post-colonial life, the national currency has never been decided by market forces but through market repression of operators of the private and the public sector.

When petro-dollars reigned, it only fuelled the consumerism of the elite who dumped on the country everything under the sun, beyond aggregate demand and the marginal propensity to consume. They call it the Dutch disease, in our case, the oil boom induced a decline in the productive sectors of our economy.

Things got worse in the Babangida years when under the dictates of the Bretton Woods, naira was subjected to attacks through outright devaluation. Under a normal market regime, the first shock for any currency ought to be depreciation, not devaluation.

Today, the spirit of patriotism is dead. Only a few of the ruling elite (those who control both the economy and political power), and the governing class (those wielding actual political power), believe in this country.

Mr. President, like it or not, under your watch, the naira is now a laughing stock, and so is Nigeria. The convenient argument you hear from the bootlickers is that, it did not begin with your administration. Thank God you have accepted the liability and assets that inherited from the Buhari administration publicly.

Nevertheless, under your watch, the naira is now exchanged for about N1,500 to the dollar. It is self-inflicted. It derives from the rot in the system, mind-boggling corruption, and anything goes. The causes of our current naira malady are well articulated and are in the public domain. Since those surrounding you now may not tell the truth, I must do so. It is the reason for this serial—to remove the beam in your eyes.

Nigerian politicians, a class that you now belong to, do not spend naira, the country’s legal tender and means of exchange, in their routine activities. They do so in dollars. Remember back in the days of the Goodluck Jonathan administration, they flirted with the idea of printing the N5000 bill, and conscientious and public-spirited individuals rose against it. The 2015 general elections were a matter of dollars. It was easy so to do. Those involved in the dollar heist of that period are in the domain and the EFFC has their dossiers.

The first, and most fundamental cause of the naira ailment is the absence of production. Peasant production and the farm settlement schemes boosted agricultural products, many regions and later states were noted for one product or the other for export, and a huge segment of the population fed on Nigerian staples. The production ambiance was buoyed by the import-substitution industrialisation policy of the government. Some capital goods were produced or assembled in Nigeria with local contents.

Today, the truth is that we import everything up to toothpick. Mr. President, where is the patriotism? The irony is that the country can produce capital goods and domestic food requirements. Imagine the toll on the country’s current account the cost of import of generators, in an era of energy democracy, the import of cars and trucks, medical tourism, and tourism overseas. They amount to billions of dollars that only worsen the fortune of the naira.

The famous round-tripping of the banks is still there. Dollars are obtained through the official window, and traded to a network of fake importers, found their way back into the shadow market, the differential is shared. Yemi Cardoso, the Governor of the Central Bank of Nigeria, just adverted to a case of false claims to the tune of $4.2 billion. Who are the scammers?

Also, it is common knowledge that some hotels and real estate businesses in the country transact business in dollars in clear violation of our laws. All these pile pressure on the local currency. What is happening to the inflow into the capital account? What about the diaspora transfers whose value is put at about $21 billion per annum, the second largest in the continent, after Egypt?

There is a well-known causal factor of Nigerians studying abroad, self-inflicted, and a consequence of the disrupted academic calendar in Nigeria due to the neglect of the education sector by the government. Parents struggle to obtain dollars in the shadow market to remit to their children. According to the CBN governor, between, 2010 and 2020, an estimated $28.65 billion was incurred on foreign education.

The way out is not far-fetched. Deal with the bashers of the Nigerian economy with the institutional organ of EFFC, and employ the portent power of example. Also, name and shame them. Boost production of food for domestic consumption, export commodities, and encourage capital good production in the country.

On international transactions, buy into Kenyan President William Ruto’s idea, otherwise called here, the William Ruto formula, that is, Africans must trade in their local currencies among themselves, and not with the dollars. The latter is an instrument of domination.

I have re-emphasised some of the causes of the naira ailment and pointed the way. I truly believe we have no business being poor. All you need to do is commit class suicide and muster the political will to deal with the root causes. Nigerians are immiserised, groaning and dying; and the country is in your hands, make or mar it.