Welcome William Bill Gates and bye bye!

So, early this month, William, the Bill Gates, returned to his favourite country, where he is loved “to nonsense” for want of a better word to describe how very much Bill Gates is loved by the political class. Of course, we Nigerians love all our politicians, irrespective of political appellations. Vultures of the same feathers who have turned Nigeria to their scavenging carrion field.

Back to Bill Gates. The last time he came in June, he visited our President in the company of our own Aliko Dangote, like petrol gets into our tank! At that time, you will remember that our President was still busy gathering together his cabinet. By the time Bill returned to Seattle, local cosmic changes had taken place on the composition of Tinubu’s cabinet. And globally, too; but that is not the subject of our discussion. As we say here…” the witch cried last night, the child died this morning…. who does not know………..” Well, you cannot rule out co-incidence.

According to our local newspapers, with photocopied, xeroxed and copiously regurgitated statements from official BMGF website, Bill Gates “will discuss advancing partnerships on health, innovation, and nutrition across Africa.” More regurgitations by our parrot newspapers included “…….the Foundation has committed more than $7bn through 2026 to support African countries and institutions working to develop and implement innovative approaches to confront hunger, disease, gender inequality, and poverty.”

One report said that during the Nigeria trip, Gates doubled down on GMOs to fix African agriculture. Of course there are different opinions about GMO, an acronym that can mischievously stand for Gates Modified Organism. However, my issue is not with GMO, no matter what it stands for. I am interested in his response to a question about local vaccine production and manufacturing in Nigeria. His response was widely reported in several ways:

“Local vaccine production shouldn’t be Nigeria’s priority” Premium Times; “Bill Gates advises against prioritising local vaccine production” (This Day) and “Philanthropist, Bill Gates, …highlights the challenges associated with local vaccine production in Nigeria, citing regulatory complexities and economic scale as significant barriers” (GPNews).

Each of these reports was emblazoned with the picture of Gates, his face spreading a mischievous smile.

Let me state from the onset that I think the advice by Gates suggesting that Nigeria should not prioritise local vaccine production is wrong and unacceptable. The reasons of regulatory complexities and economic scale are either proffered out of ignorance of Africa continental and Nigeria’s plans for local vaccine manufacturing and production, or this is another effort to ensure that we remain a consuming beggar continent, pleading, whining and wringing our hands for the crumbs of vaccine droppings off the table of inequity.

You must remember that in April 2020, it was Melinda, the former wife of the same Bill Gates who on an April 10 interview with CNN, said that the coronavirus pandemic will have the worst impact in the developing world, and foresaw dead bodies lying around in the street of African countries. Although Gates, through the BMGF has had tremendous positive impact on issues of health globally, this current advice to Nigeria will certainly and no doubt, go the way of Melinda’s prediction.

First let us examine the barriers listed for Nigeria not to prioritise local vaccine production. These were “regulatory complexities and economic scale.” Of course, we are all aware of the obstacles confronting local vaccine production. These obstacles are global, and many countries have overcome such obstacles.

On regulatory obstacles, Nigeria is not a non-starter, as our NAFDAC achieved in 2022, the status of WHO Maturity Level three, and one of four regulatory authorities in Africa, at this level. The others are Tanzania, Ghana, and Egypt. Egypt has reached maturity level three for vaccines regulation (locally produced and imported) and Nigeria for medicines and imported vaccines. The next step for Nigeria is to achieve the capacity for regulating and approving locally manufactured vaccines.

On the second barrier – economy of scale, I think the scale tips in favour of Nigeria and Bill may be looking at the wrong scale. With COVID-19 and Africa’s accusations against Western countries of “inequity, vaccine hoarding and racism”, several agencies and global bodies rushed (in a frenzy of guilt feeling), to support and set up infrastructures for local vaccine manufacturing in Senegal, Rwanda, Ghana, and South Africa. These facilities were set up not just for COVID-19 vaccines, but also for other routine immunisation vaccines. These agencies include the Europa Union, WHO, CEPI and many organisations on the good books or allies of BMGF. Take a second look at the countries where these Western countries rushed to set up vaccine production facilities. Their estimated combined population is 131.2 million, while Nigeria’s population is 234 million…….. and Bill is talking of economic of scale?

Is it economically sustainable for Rwanda (population 14.3 million) or Senegal (population 18.5 million) or Ghana (population 34.4 million) or South Africa (sixty-four million) to produce vaccines, but not Nigeria with a population of 234 million? It makes sense, doesn’t it, for Nigeria not to prioritise local vaccine production, so the nation becomes the consuming markets for vaccines locally produced in Senegal. Rwanda and Ghana. This must be what Gates is referring to when he mentioned economic of scale.

According to our NPHCDA, Nigeria will require more than one billion U.S. dollars, over the next five years (2025-2029), for routine immunisation (RI) vaccine financing. Thereafter, the country will require at least $295 million to procure vaccines each year. We are talking of Nigeria doubling her current routine vaccine requirements to over 200 million doses, from 2029 onwards.

Currently, not one dose of any vaccine is produced locally in Nigeria, and we need to find the foreign exchange to purchase these vaccines, every year, so long as we fail to produce some of these vaccines locally. And we are told not to prioritise local vaccine production, so that we continue to pay these vast amounts of money to procure vaccines from Ghana, Rwanda, and Senegal.

To be continued tomorrow.

Tomori is a Virologist and declares a conflict of interest as the Chair, Board of BVNL.