Lagos, Osun set tone for 2027

That commotion in the Lagos State of Assembly (LSHA) last week, shocked pundits and bookmakers. Nobody predicted things could fall apart so easily in President Tinubu’s Lagos, Nigeria’s Centre of Excellence.

The account and sequence of events were blurry, as no one could accurately tell who called the shots among the different levers of power in the state. The ease with which authority collapsed in LSHA betrayed the cohesion that was thought to be in place.It is cosmetic.

Uproar began when men of the Department of State Security (DSS), invaded the House with the motive to seal the offices of the Speaker, Mojisola Meranda and her deputy, Fatai Mojeed. There was resistance and solidarity chants by lawmakers to express shock and displeasure.

As that bedlam ensued, there was a report that the Police Service Commission (PSC), had ordered the removal of the Commissioner of Police, Lagos State Command, Lanre Ishola, in connection with the LSHA crisis. He was replaced with CP Jimoh Moshood. That gist was given by the spokesperson of PSC, Ikechukwu Ani, in a press statement he shared with the National Association of Online Security News Publishers. Back-channel information may have added reason for the change of the police commissioner.

The DSS was to later parade a letter, which claimed the LSHA invited the department to provide security on Monday, February 17, 2025, having anticipated a crisis. How that invitation translated into a force of occupation hasn’t been properly explained. More so, if the House had duly invited the DSS through the Office of the Clerk, why the uproar? Who should provide law and order in the House, DSS or police? Something is fishy.

Later, a letter purporting to announce the resignation of Speaker Meranda showed up and was well circulated. In the letter dated February 17, the Speaker said she was stepping aside to join her colleagues as a floor member. She thanked her colleagues for their unflinching support, which made her the first female Speaker in Lagos State, attainment she claimed she cherished so much. Shortly after, another news item was shared, urging Lagosians to disregard news of her purported resignation. She’s not going anywhere.

In the maze of theories that made the rounds, it was also alleged that the wife of the President, Oluremi Tinubu, had a hand in the resurgence of crisis that should have been put to rest after the emergence of a new Speaker.

The logical step Lagosians expected was for the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC), to invite the former Speaker, Mudashiru Obasa, to tackle corruption allegations leveled against him. The conspiracy was that someone prevented the EFFC from going after Obasa, which emboldened him to plot a comeback in that audacious manner.

When matters became too rough for the first female Speaker, she apparently embraced wise counsel and padlocked the House till further notice, in the hope that matters would boil gently when the Assembly reconvenes.

Obasa had gone to court to challenge his ouster, on the ground that the House was on a recess and there was nothing extraordinary to warrant an emergency convening of the House. That seemed the reasonable thing to do to defuse tension.

But the brigandage that was staged last week, in Mr. President’s political empire, couldn’t have happened, unless fate had determined it was time to give Lagos real democracy, instead of the sole proprietorship it is used to since 1999.

There were reports that arms were found in Obasa’s office, which was promptly denied. Arms could be planted anywhere by any group for whatever reason. The intelligence from that is; that unauthorized arms were found in unathorised places, which supports the concern that in the event of self-help, when the centre refuses to hold anymore, political actors in the state could lay hands on lethal arms to defend their political interests. That should not be allowed to happen.

The Rivers corollary. Rivers State has not known peace since President Tinubu hired Nyesom Wike into his government. During the 2023 elections, Tinubu forged an unholy alliance with Wike to entrench confusion in the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Then 27 lawmakers elected on the ticket of PDP were instigated to abandon their party to become members of the All Progressives Congress (APC).

The last local government elections in Rivers State provided clues of how the state was programmed to explode. The police that were to provide security pulled out their men on the pretense that a court had ordered the election not to hold. After the government managed to hold a successful election, the police watched helplessly as political merchants went on rampage and set fire to some council secretariats. Some lives were lost.

That crisis in Lagos needn’t happen but for nemesis. One phone call from President Tinubu could have halted the plots to destabilise the Lagos polity. Maybe the owners of Lagos should get set for a real republic. Sooner than later, the godfather is bound to retire and to avoid more of the chaos we saw last week, let the politicians embrace multi-party democratic culture. After the Tinubu dispensation, there may no longer be one strong man to whom the coming generation would surrender their sovereignty.

Some members of the Governor’s Advisory Council (GAC), who swore that Obasa was a forgone conclusion didn’t reckon with other levers of power at play. Maybe the GAC is not as formidable as it brags, or is due for an overhaul. The next generation of Lagos politicians may not have patience with the GAC’s meddle someness, just the same way Tinubu fractured the once formidable Afenifere.

The signs are very clear, that Lagos is overdue for political reform. A few people are lording it over millions of captured Lagosians. That exploitation must stop. Unfortunately, there hasn’t been a serious opposition to kickstart the reform. If the movement that caused Tinubu to lose Lagos in 2023 hasn’t gone to sleep, perhaps it’s the time to oil its machinery.

Like Osun, like Rivers Osun State is said to be Mr. President’s original home state. It got a dose of political trouble last week. It was another unfortunate incident that needn’t happen if somebodyhad demonstrated leadership that is non-partisan. Persons were reported killed when APC and PDP supporters clashed in their bid to control local government councils.

Governor Ademola Adeleke had warned of a looming trouble following a judgment of the Court of Appeal, Akure division, of February 10,2025 in Appeal No CA/AK/272/2022, which nullified and set aside the judgment of the Federal High Court, Osogbo, delivered on November 25, 2022. It’s all about the control of local governments in the state, as the party that controls local governments stands to gain more politically and financially, especially now that councils are said to have autonomy.

The last council elections of 2022 gave the APC landslide victory under former governor Gboyega Oyetola. The party, however, recorded a loss at the Federal High Court, Osogbo, which nullified the election. The Appeal Court now says the sacked council executives can return to office, which they did forcefully. It was a bloody encounter.

The timing of the Appeal Court judgment is suspect and seems unhelpful. Council elections were slated to hold last Saturday. Why not allow the parties test their capacities in a fresh election, given that effluxion of time had complicated the tenure of the ousted executives. But the APC people were eager to enforce the judgment in a desperate effort to ruin the chances of fresh council elections, which they were not prepared for and had no faith in.

The ruling party, PDP, was equally desperate to explore the election as opportunity to gain a foothold ahead of next year’s governorship election. It was a mayhem that was programmed to happen while politicians in Abuja looked the other way.

Late Thursday last week, the Attorney General of the Federation, Lateef Fagbemi, issued a belated statement to ask Osun State Government to suspend Saturday’s council election, based on the AGF’s interpretation of the Appeal Court judgment.

Fagbemi said: “My attention has been drawn to the public outcry of Osun State Governor, Ademola Adeleke, concerning the judgment of the Court of Appeal, Akure division, delivered on the 10th day of February, 2025 in Appeal No CA/AK/272/2022, which nullified and set aside the judgment of the Federal High Court, Osogbo, Osun State, delivered on 25th day of November, 2022. It has become necessary to issue this public notice to remove doubts, fears and uncertainties created by misrepresentations and disinformation concerning the legal effect of the judgment of the Court of Appeal…”

The summary of the AG’s intervention is that the judgment of the Court of Appeal had restored the elected council executives that were sacked by the Federal High Court, Osogbo, in 2022. They will remain in office until October 2025, when their tenure would expire, irrespective of the months they spent outside. No need to hold Saturday’s election.

It would have made more sense if the AG had intervened before the killings of last Monday, not just through a statement, but through physical meetings with Governor Adeleke and former governor Gboyega Oyetola, to engender sustainable peace. Even the tone of the AG’s statement portrayed a one-sided arbiter, undermining the fact that another High Court judgment in a separate suit had also sacked the council officials.

In any case, the Appeal Court is not the final court in the land. Why does the AG presume that Osun Government will not challenge the Akure judgment in the Supreme Court? Why the rush to execute the judgment on the eve of election? Maybe that’s a layman’s reading of the issues.

When Rivers was embroiled in the deadly council election crisis, we did not read statements from the AGF to clarify the confusion and misinterpretations that arose from different court rulings. Let utmost care be taken, so that the Attorney General of the Federation (AGF) is not mistaken as the Attorney General of APC (AGA). The handwriting is worrisomely clear!