Nigerian energy trilemma paradox: Navigating delicate balance between sustainability, security and equity

As I recall from my high school physics, energy exists in various forms, including mechanical, sound, light, chemical, and electrical energy. A fundamental principle I learned is that energy cannot be created or destroyed, only transformed from one form to another.

Examples of this transformation include converting heat energy into electrical energy via gas thermal turbines, or mechanical energy into chemical energy and then electrical energy in car batteries. In the context of the energy trilemma, the term ‘energy’ specifically refers to electrical energy. This brief physics primer is needed to set the proper context for our discussion on the energy trilemma.

The Energy Trilemma represents the complex challenge of balancing three core pillars of energy policy: energy security, environmental sustainability, and social equity. At its core, the trilemma revolves around three fundamental concerns: Availability and Accessibility, Affordability, and Sustainability. Addressing these interconnected challenges is crucial for achieving energy security, reducing energy poverty, and driving economic development in Nigeria, Africa, and globally. Ultimately, resolving the Energy Trilemma is essential for lifting communities out of poverty and promoting sustainable economic growth.

Effective government policies, sector spending, and resource allocation should be grounded in a comprehensive understanding of the intricate relationships between the various components of the energy trilemma.

importance of understanding the complex relationships within the energy sector cannot be overstated. It is crucial to examine the interactions and causal effects between the various elements to address the challenges and opportunities that arise. The 42nd Nigerian Association of Petroleum Explorationists (NAPE) Annual International Conference and Exhibition (AICE) recently held at the Eko Hotel and Suites, Lagos, delved into this critical topic. The conference, themed “Resolving the Nigeria Energy Trilemma: Energy Security, Sustainable Growth, and Affordability,” brought together experts who presented papers, delivered speeches, and engaged in panel discussions to proffer meaningful, professional, and sustainable solutions to the challenges facing Nigeria’s energy sector.”

Energy is a universal imperative, essential for human existence, growth, and development. Since energy is a fundamental driver of economic growth, energy access is intricately linked to poverty alleviation, improved standards of living, and overall well-being. The prevalence of energy poverty in a nation is a strong indicator of its economic prosperity, poverty levels, and standard of living.

Consequently, energy policy decisions have far-reaching implications for individuals, communities, nations, and the world at large.
A thorough comprehension of the energy trilemma is crucial for informing governmental policies and shaping the future of Nigeria’s energy systems. This article provides an in-depth analysis of the three constituent elements of the energy trilemma, examines the inherent tensions between them, and explores potential strategies for achieving a balanced and harmonious approach to energy management.

Energy Security

Energy security is the uninterrupted availability of energy sources at an affordable price. Despite its significance, energy security often receives inadequate attention. It is a critical determinant of a nation’s sovereignty. Without energy security, industrialization and development become daunting challenges. Moreover, reliance on external energy sources can leave a nation vulnerable to the whims of its energy providers.

The adage ‘you cannot control what you do not domesticate’ underscores the importance of domestic energy control. A poignant illustration of this principle is the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict, which highlights the geopolitical implications of energy insecurity.
The ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict has exposed the vulnerabilities of Europe’s energy supply, highlighting the imperative of energy security. When Russia cut off gas supplies to Europe, several countries scrambled to secure alternative energy sources, leading to skyrocketing energy prices. To achieve energy security, three essential conditions must be met:
1. Energy availability: Ensuring a steady supply of energy to meet the needs of citizens and industries.
2. Energy accessibility: Guaranteeing that energy is accessible when needed, without disruptions or restrictions.
3. Energy affordability: Ensuring that energy is priced reasonably, making it accessible to all segments of the population.

Affordability is a critical factor in the energy security equation. If energy is available and accessible but unaffordable, it can lead to suboptimal energy utilization, exacerbating energy poverty and hindering industrial productivity, growth, and development.

Energy security is a vital component of a nation’s stability, underpinning the resilience of governments and economies. Its significance cannot be overstated, as access to reliable energy is a prerequisite for economic development. In both developed and developing countries, energy is the lifeblood of essential functions such as transportation, heating, and industrial production.

A sudden disruption to energy supply, whether caused by geopolitical tensions, natural disasters, or infrastructure failures, can have far-reaching and devastating consequences. These may include economic downturns, social unrest, and even humanitarian crises. Therefore, ensuring energy security is crucial for maintaining national stability, promoting economic growth, and safeguarding the well-being of citizens.

To guarantee energy security, nations typically diversify their energy portfolios, incorporating a mix of fossil fuels, nuclear power, and renewable energy sources. However, each nation’s unique circumstances, development level, and aspirations must inform its energy strategy and policy formulation. This tailored approach enables the nation to achieve its long-term growth objectives while addressing its near- and mid-term energy needs.

Resource allocation in the energy sector should be guided by Nigeria’s specific requirements, rather than adhering to a one-size-fits-all approach dictated by other countries. By prioritizing its unique energy needs, Nigeria can ensure that its energy sector development aligns with its national goals and aspirations.

For Nigeria, I passionately believe that the focus should shift from the current emphasis on energy transition to a more pragmatic approach – optimizing our energy mix. While it may be tempting to follow the global trend and conform to international expectations, our priorities should align with the nation’s best interests. We must prioritize actions that drive economic growth and development, rather than merely seeking to appease external stakeholders or conform to global norms.

To achieve energy security, Nigeria should leverage all available energy sources, including fossil fuels (gas, oil, and coal), renewables (hydro, solar, wind, bioenergy, etc.), nuclear, and geothermal energy. Each energy source should be evaluated based on its merits, comparative advantages, constructability, operability, cost, sustainability, and environmental impact.
A regional approach to energy development can accelerate Nigeria’s progress, enhance energy self-sufficiency, and strengthen energy security. By tailoring energy solutions to specific regions, we can optimize energy production and distribution. For instance:
– Gas-powered turbines are well-suited for coastal and southern regions.
– Hydro-powered energy sources are ideal for the North-Central region.
– Solar and wind turbines are best suited for the Northeastern and Northwestern parts of the country.

A regional energy strategy can be highly effective, where each region prioritizes serving its local industries, clusters, and citizens, while exporting excess capacity to the national grid. This approach enables other regions to augment their energy supply and mitigate shortfalls in generation.

By adopting this strategy, Nigeria can rapidly achieve energy self-sufficiency and security, foster healthy competition among regions, and drive economic growth and overall development. This decentralized approach promotes regional energy independence, reduces reliance on centralized power systems, and encourages sustainable development.

However, the current strategy and pursuit of energy transition may inadvertently lead to an over-reliance on specific energy sources or suppliers, raising questions about long-term sustainability and energy security of the country.

Social Equity

The second pillar of the energy trilemma is social equity, which encompasses the fair distribution of energy resources and access to energy services across various socio-economic segments. Energy poverty remains a pervasive challenge in many developing countries, including Nigeria.

Alarmingly, over 60% of the population lacks access to energy, while 75% are denied access to clean energy. The absence of reliable and affordable energy stifles economic growth, impedes education, and compromises overall quality of life.

Energy social equity involves addressing the unique needs of disadvantaged and marginalized communities, ensuring that everyone benefits from energy systems and shares in the value they create. This is why government intervention and participation in the energy sector are crucial for the overall well-being of society and the economy.

Energy projects are typically capital-intensive and require extended gestation periods. Therefore, the profitability of energy projects, quick returns on investment, and payout periods should not be the sole determinants for executing energy projects. Instead, policymakers and stakeholders should consider a broader range of factors, including social equity, environmental sustainability, and long-term energy security, to ensure that energy projects truly serve the greater good.

The government’s involvement in financing large-scale energy projects, particularly in rural communities, is crucial to ensure that everyone has access to energy. This includes energy generation, transmission, and distribution, which are essential for making energy available, accessible, and affordable for all Nigerians.

While private sector participation in the energy sector is beneficial, over-reliance on private entities may not achieve the desired objectives of energy social equity. This is because private companies prioritize profit maximization, whereas public sector investments should focus on creating an environment that enables citizens to thrive.

Therefore, the well-being of citizens should be the top priority for any nation. By striking a balance between private sector participation and government investment, Nigeria can ensure that energy access is equitable, dependable, and sustainable for all.

The relationship between energy security, sustainability, and equity is often characterized by competing demands. For example, while pursuing energy security through the expansion of fossil fuel use may provide short-term economic benefits, it can also have some less desirable impact on environmental sustainability, exacerbating climate change because of carbon (footprint) emissions, methane and fugitive gas venting into the atmosphere compromising the protective capacity of the ozone layer and its associated risks. Conversely, prioritizing environmental sustainability can lead to increased energy costs and may unintentionally disadvantage vulnerable populations who depend on affordable energy.

Resolving the energy trilemma demands deliberate and intentional actions from a nation’s political leadership. Effective leaders must drive policy development, balancing the intricate relationships between energy security, environmental sustainability, and social equity. This requires visionary leadership that prioritizes the well-being of citizens, with a strong commitment to lifting the majority out of poverty.

Resource allocation and the weighting of each trilemma component should be guided by the overarching goal of maximizing benefits for the populace. This involves leveraging comparative advantages and embracing the philosophy that the end justifies the means, as espoused by Niccolò Machiavelli. By adopting this approach, nations can foster productivity, shared prosperity, and a brighter future for their citizens.

At Nigeria’s current stage of development, our primary focus should be on ensuring energy availability, accessibility, and affordability to drive production and stimulate growth. This should be the paramount objective of any government genuinely committed to sustainable development.

The role of the state in achieving this goal cannot be overstated. We cannot rely solely on market forces to drive energy generation, distribution, and supply. Doing so would hinder our ability to achieve meaningful growth, particularly given our rapidly expanding population.

While some may disagree, energy subsidies are necessary at this stage of our development. Until a sizable portion of our population has the purchasing power to afford cost-reflective and market-based energy prices, subsidies will remain essential. By acknowledging this reality, we can create a more equitable energy landscape that supports our nation’s growth and development.

Access to affordable energy is a matter of utmost national importance and should be treated as a national security priority. The current state of the energy sector is unacceptable, and drastic measures are necessary to address the pressing needs of our citizens.

the slow progress and inadequate existing arrangements, declaring a state of emergency in the energy sector may be the catalyst needed to drive meaningful change. 

It is common to hear professionals, elites, and academics condemning subsidies as if they are inherently bad. However, the truth is that there is nothing inherently wrong with government subsidies. Many countries successfully implement subsidies to support essential services.
Nigeria’s problem lies not with the concept of subsidies itself, but with the rampant greed, corruption, and economic sabotage that plague the administration of subsidy regimes. 

This is so because we lack consequence management. The lack of consequence management exacerbates our challenges. Even developed nations and Western economies employ subsidies to support their citizens and protect vulnerable populations. For instance, agricultural production is heavily subsidized in these countries, while social welfare programs assist the elderly, people with disabilities, and those facing financial hardship.

Our policies should prioritize the well-being of our citizens, leveraging principles like comparative advantage and cost-benefit analysis. By doing so, we can create policies that maximize benefits for the greatest number of people, driving meaningful growth and development.

Environmental Sustainability

The third pillar of the Energy Trilemma, environmental sustainability, emphasizes the urgent need to mitigate the ecological footprint of energy production and consumption. Sustainability entails responsible energy use, considering not only current needs but also those of future generations.
“The burning of fossil fuels contributes to climate change, air pollution, and biodiversity loss. However, it is essential to acknowledge that other human activities, unrelated to fossil fuel usage, also exacerbate climate change due to global warming.

Global warming leads to sea-level rise, resulting in flooding and destruction of lives and properties in coastal and adjacent cities. As the scientific consensus on the urgency of addressing climate change grows, transitioning to sustainable energy sources becomes imperative.
Rather than solely focusing on ‘energy transition,’ I prefer the term ‘energy mix.’ This phrase acknowledges the need for a diversified energy portfolio, incorporating various sources to ensure a sustainable, equitable, and secure energy future.

Fossil fuels will continue to be a vital component of the global energy mix for the foreseeable future. While alternative energy sources will undoubtedly increase their contributions over time, driven by advancements in technology, fossil fuels will remain a significant player.
Although the percentage contribution of fossil fuels may decrease as alternatives gain traction, it is unlikely to be completely displaced. There are compelling reasons for this, which will be outlined below.

1.   Fossil fuel still accounts for the cheapest
and most affordable form of fuel as of today and it is poised to remain so for the foreseeable future.

2.   Fossil fuels are the primary source of various essential derivatives and by-products that cater to our daily needs. Currently, alternatives for these products have yet to be developed or discovered.

3.   Fossil fuels offer a more reliable source of energy compared to alternatives, providing the stability and consistency required to power heavy machinery and equipment in heavy-duty industries. The uninterrupted energy supply provided by fossil fuels is essential for industries such as manufacturing, mining, and construction, which rely on continuous operation to maintain productivity.

4. As the global energy landscape evolves, natural gas is poised to play an increasingly prominent role due to its lower carbon footprint and emissions. Compared to other fossil fuels, natural gas is considered a cleaner and more environmentally friendly option, primarily because of its simple molecular structure, which contains fewer carbon atoms
5.   As the global energy landscape evolves, natural gas is poised to play an increasingly prominent role due to its lower carbon footprint and emissions. Compared to other fossil fuels, natural gas is considered a cleaner and more environmentally friendly option, primarily because of its simple molecular structure, which contains fewer carbon atoms.
6.   While renewable energy sources like solar and wind power offer a more environmentally friendly alternative, they currently lack the reliability and uptime availability of fossil fuels. A significant challenge facing renewables is the need for energy storage solutions to stabilize output and ensure a steady supply. This is because solar and wind power generation is intermittent, varying with weather conditions.
At present, the cost of energy storage technologies, such as batteries, is prohibitively expensive, making renewables less efficient and more costly than traditional fossil fuel-based power generation. However, as technology continues to evolve and mature, we can expect more cost-effective and efficient energy storage solutions to emerge, enhancing the viability of renewable energy sources.

7.   The ongoing development of Carbon Capture, Utilization and Storage (CCUS) technology is expected to address the environmental concerns surrounding fossil fuel use
Renewable energy technologies such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power are central to resolving the debacle of energy trilemma. This is so simply because they offer the potential to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and minimize ecological footprints. However, the development and deployment of these technologies come with challenges, such as the need for substantial upfront investment requirements, concerns over uptime reliability due to the intermittent nature of renewable sources, and land-use considerations that must be carefully managed.

Another concern with renewable energy sources such as solar and wind is the energy storage requirement – this requires huge upfront sunk capital that otherwise could have been deployed to other productive uses. Batteries are the most common means of energy storage. Although there are other energy storage technologies at various stages of development, the most popular is batteries.
 
The challenge with batteries is the end-of-life handling – disposing of the waste batteries just like nuclear by-products poses a challenge to the user and environment. The end-to-end life cycle and value chain of renewable energy has not been fully studied and or professionally researched. The paradox of renewable energy’s environmental impact presents a compelling research opportunity for academia. Investigating the question, “How green is green energy?” would involve conducting comprehensive cost-benefit analyses of the entire life cycle of various renewable energy sources, excluding hydroelectric power. This research would provide invaluable insights into the true environmental footprint of renewable energy sources, informing more sustainable decision-making and policy development.

Navigating the Mesh of the Energy Trilemma

Given the intricate nature of the energy trilemma, a pressing question arises: How can we effectively navigate this complex challenge to achieve a more desirable outcome? To successfully address the energy trilemma, a comprehensive approach is necessary, incorporating integrated policies and innovative solutions that prioritize shared prosperity, poverty reduction, and overall citizen well-being.

A multifaceted strategy that harmonizes energy security, energy equity, and environmental sustainability is crucial for creating resilient energy systems. Effective navigation of the energy trilemma demands a balanced approach that synchronizes these three pillars. Key strategies may include:”

Continue and Sustain Investment in Fossil Fuels Energy: Evaluate all available potential energy sources and integrate this with the source where we have comparative advantage or some semblance of it and focus on developing such to ramp up opportunities of making energy available, accessible and affordable to the citizenry in the short and medium terms. Achieving this will help resolve the first two pillars of the energy trilemma i.e., energy security and energy social equity. While aggressively pursuing this policy, we will closely monitor advancements in the renewable energy sector. This will enable us to capitalize on emerging developments at the opportune moment, incorporating them into our energy mix to further enhance our energy strategy.

Investing in Renewable Energy: Strategic investment and timing of such investment in the development of a robust renewable energy infrastructure can enhance energy security while addressing environmental challenges. Policies that incentivize renewable energy development, such as subsidies and tax breaks, can accelerate the percentage contribution of renewable energy sources in the energy mix.

Energy Efficiency: Enhancing energy efficiency in buildings, industries, and transportation systems can significantly reduce energy demand and lower emissions. Efforts should be made to codify and standardize facilities and equipment utilizing energy to be energy efficient. Deployment of smart grid systems should be encouraged too. This approach benefits both sustainability and security, as it diminishes reliance on external energy sources.

Decentralized Energy Systems:  Promoting decentralized energy production, such as community solar projects and microgrids, can significantly enhance energy access for underserved populations. By leveraging local resources, communities can assume control of their energy needs, fostering greater social equity and energy democracy.

Liberalizing energy generation, transmission, and distribution, while maintaining necessary regulatory oversight to ensure national security and protect consumers from exploitation, can also be beneficial. 

Comprehensive Policy Frameworks: Governments at various levels should adopt integrated energy policies that consider the interconnections between security, sustainability, and equity. Engaging diverse stakeholders, including local communities, businesses, and environmental groups, is crucial for formulating effective policies.

Global Cooperation: As energy systems become increasingly interconnected, international collaboration is essential for addressing global energy challenges. Technology transfer, knowledge sharing, and joint investments in renewable energy can foster sustainable development and energy security. However, this should be done with the national interest superseding any other interests.

Conclusion

The Energy Trilemma presents a complex and multifaceted challenge that requires holistic and innovative approaches. Policymakers and stakeholders must recognize the interdependence of energy security, social equity, and environmental sustainability to foster resilient and inclusive energy systems. Through collaboration, investment in clean technologies, and a commitment to equitable energy access, societies can navigate the complexities of the energy trilemma and pave the way for a sustainable, secure, and equitable energy future. Ultimately, successfully addressing the Energy Trilemma is not only essential for national interests but also crucial for global sustainability and well-being.

Ekun, FNAPE, can be reached on 08034881222 [email protected]