No, living is already too hard

Manufacturers last week, lamented that they cannot survive the extortionate electricity cost charged by private owners in collusion with government. Speaking on behalf of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN), the Director General, Mr. Segun Ajayi-Kadir, said the 250 per cent hike is not only drastic and insensitive, it makes their operations difficult to sustain. He agonised that some of their members are contemplating shutting down. Indeed, many have shut down due to the high costs of doing business.

At an earlier forum in July 2024, the same manufacturers bemoaned the high interest rate charged on loans due to upward reviews of Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN). The President of Dangote Group, Aliko Dangote, at a three-day summit of manufacturers hosted at the Banquet Hall of the State House, Abuja, said pointedly that no growth will happen with the interest rate so high. He said: “Nobody can create jobs with an interest rate of 30 per cent. No growth will happen. No power, no prosperity. No affordable financing, no growth, no development.”

At the time of that lamentation, the CBN had moved the MPR to 26.75 per cent. The ongoing rate after the MPC’s September meeting is 27.25 per cent, a fourth raise in seven months; yet the fiscal authorities think it’s not high enough since it has not forced down inflation.

In September, the headline inflation returned to its upward trend (32.70 per cent) after a little respite in August (32.15 per cent). By the time the new petrol prices settle in with multiplier impact on other prices, the next report by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) will tell whether the CBN is getting it right or not.

The Nigerian Association of Chambers of Commerce, Industry, Mines and Agriculture (NACCIMA), counseled that high MPR would heap more burden on businesses, with higher loan costs, expand their struggles and would eventually not reduce the inflation that the CBN craves.

In a statement, the NACCIMA President, Dele Kelvin Oye, said: “We urge the CBN to engage stakeholders for a collaborative approach, considering alternatives like targeted sector support, deficit reduction and promoting local production. A reassessment of strategies is essential to ensure effective economic management and sustainable growth in Nigeria. Dialogue and innovative solutions are crucial for repositioning our economy.”

The reason manufacturers and other concerned stakeholders take to lamentation is to pressure government and policy makers to soften their hard position and listen to contrary opinions outside government. But it appears people in government prefer to listen to themselves and to their World Bank/IMF advisors.

A Senior Vice President of the World Bank Group, Indermit Gill, told Nigerians last week, to endure the socio-economic pains inflicted by Tinubu’s reforms for the next 10 to 15 years. That’s when there will be light at the end of the tunnel. Gill told the audience at the 30th Nigerian Economic Summit, that the reforms must continue to reverse the trillions of naira enjoyed by the elite through fuel subsidies and multiple foreign exchange rates.

But it is now more than one year since the so-called multiple exchange rates were purportedly unified. It is already more than one year since the Federal Government announced that petrol subsidy was gone.

It appears the World Bank doesn’t have a new message, apart from refusing to see that the prescriptions it recommended on subsidies in crucial sectors have worsened the economy. Now, telling hapless citizens to wait for 15 more harrowing years before they see light at the end of the tunnel is most unkind. This is the same message President Tinubu and his minister preach. No sympathy.

The duplicitous stance of the World Bank is well noted. They know that Nigeria had been a leading economy, not only in sub-Saharan Africa, but also on the World stage. Even under the traduced Goodluck Jonathan administration, the economy recorded a healthy growth trajectory. So, Mr. Gill is not saying anything new. Nigerians know where their leaders have failed them; when the refineries stopped to work through conspiracies and connivance of local and international actors, who orchestrate an opaque system from which they make mindless illicit profits.

The World Bank and IMF don’t charge Nigerian leaders to be accountable. The oversight of World Bank loans does not guarantee quality delivery. There are always leakages and default re-payments that perpetually enslave governments to seek more loans and bring upon citizens the type of cruel jokes Gill unleashed last week.

The traditional position of the World Bank, at least in the last eight years, has been that Nigeria does not need local refineries because it would not make any difference on the pump price.

From what Nigerians have seen, especially in the slothful manner this particular government has toyed with the refineries, both the government and the bank have kept faith with that ideology, to perpetually make Nigeria dependent on imported petrol.

It does not make elementary economic sense that the availability of raw material as well the means to produce locally cannot benefit the local market in pricing and product availability.

Despite commissioning the Dangote Refinery Limited (DRL), there are now a thousand and one reasons why citizens cannot enjoy price advantage from DRL. The refinery cannot get sufficient crude supply from oil producers licensed by government and the people cannot get fuel to buy with ease, even at over N1,000 per litre. This is the reform the World Bank’s vice president recommends to Nigerians and wants it to remain so for the next 15 years.

The lie repeatedly told by the World Bank that only the elite benefits from fuel subsidy is plain mischief. One wonders the data the bank used to arrive at that offensive segmentation. Truth, which is constant, is that more than 100 million Nigerians depend on affordable petrol to move around and do business.

Even the so-called elite that are acclaimed not to need subsidised fuel are hurting as we speak. There are also manufacturers and service providers who need affordable fuel to produce and market their products.

When petrol pump price goes up, every other price goes up. The country is largely rural and transportation is largely by subsistence means. Even in the cities, claims to mass transportation are just a hype. So, let the World Bank repent from the lie that ordinary Nigerians don’t benefit from affordable petrol.

Last week, the same World Bank reported a distressing development update, revealing that over 129 million Nigerians now live below the national poverty line (less than $2 per day). The report highlighted a significant rise in poverty rates from 40.1 per cent in 2018 to 56 per cent in 2024, attributing it to slow economic growth amid high inflation.

The bank is still blaming COVID-19 for slow growth in Nigeria, whereas, countries that were heavily impacted by the pandemic have since recovered and are now doing well.

The World Bank does not want to admit that the obnoxious policies it recommends to clueless leaders are responsible for shrinking the economy and pauperising citizens. Instead of drumming production, the World Bank recommends rice sharing and cash transfers to alleviate poverty.

Unfortunately, such palliative measures in the hands of a greedy political class only make the people poorer. How come the hundreds and thousands of bags of rice shared by this government beginning from around August 2023 have not tamed inflation or reduce poverty? To worsen matters, the palliative money is borrowed from the bank and will be paid back. That was why Vice President Shettima went to the 79th UNGA to plead debt forgiveness.

In May 2024, the International Monetary Fund told the Federal Government to stop electricity subsidy. It warned that electricity subsidy plus that of fuel would consume three per cent of the nation’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2024. This government did not waste time and did not call for local input when it rushed to announce the new tariff.

Let them remember that the high cost of electricity is the reason there is slow growth in the economy. The manufacturers association pleaded with government to grant them some concession because of the crucial role they play in the economy. When government remained adamant, MAN went to a Federal High court in Lagos, to challenge the tariff increase for Band A customers by the 11 electricity distribution companies. Many Band A customers do not get the premium service they pay for. Some are supplied less than 12 hours of electricity and others contend with outages during regular grid accidents.

Meanwhile, the minister in charge of power, Adebayo Adelabu, has lied that Nigerians have stopped complaining about the hike in petrol price because they no longer need it to run their generators due to constant electricity supply. Many Nigerians have debunked this lie, which is not based on any reliable data apart from the minister’s unrestrained imagination, just as he lied the other time that Nigerians leave their refrigerators permanently on, the reason the meagre 4,000 megawatts of electricity generated does not go round.

When the Tinubu administration boasted that it was set to reshuffle the Federal Cabinet one month ago, many consumers heaved a sigh, hoping they’ve heard enough of the Power Minister’s insensitive jabs. Maybe they have to wait some more, not that a replacement would do any magic, but just for the optics.

A fundamental restructuring, including decentralisation is needed to free the sector from unaccountable government/private sector monopoly, not just on paper.

The truth is that many citizens have abandoned generating power with costly petrol. Citizens have also taken advantage of the cold, wet season to open their windows to enjoy natural fresh air. One cannot say what the weather will recommend when hot, dry season sets in soon.

Finally, let this government listen to Nigerians who wear the shoe and feel the pains, not the IMF/World Bank. Let the government not add more pains, living is already too hard!