Remembering October 7

October 7 has become for Israel what 9/11 was to the United States. A day to remember. It was the day a great power let down its guard and incurred the humiliation and devastation of the enemy – an inferior enemy, but one that is motivated, determined, hateful, obdurant and unyielding.

That is what happens when hubris and delusional arrogance are allowed to detract  national security consciousness. It is said that no matter how strong one may be, either as an individual or a nation, care must be taken never to underestimate the capacity of a determined enemy.

That reality was brought home to Israel and it’s leaders in a way they will never forget. On October 7, 2023, Israel and it’s leaders woke up to a new reality. That new reality is that in a confrontation between the elephant and the rattle snake, the elephant is expected to crush the rattlesnake underfoot, but if the elephant loses focus, the little enemy would strike with amazing ferocity. And that strike could prove fatal.

The state of Israel was declared on May 14, 1948, and five Arab countries went to war on the 15th – the next day. These Arab nations declared their aversion to the existence of a Jewish state in their midst. From the floors of the United Nations General Assembly to the fields of Palestine, they made clear their mandate “to drive the Jews into the Sea”. The political and religious leaders of the Arab world described the destruction of Israel as “an act pleasing to God and religion”.

And every Arab state swore to the achievement of that objective. Several decades later, not so much has changed. The hatred and anger have not diminished, and neither the tears and bloodshed. Iran, a non Arab country, got involved on religious and ideological bases, complicating the situation even more. We will return to that later.

On this account, Israel fully understood the circumstances of its existence and was determined not to oblige those that wished them ill. The remnants of the world Jewry, bleary-eyed and exhausted from Hitler’s ‘Final Solution’, knew that they had no option left. Either to fight to the death or be led meekly to the slaughter once again. They choose the former. They fought an impossible war and won a unique victory. The War of Consolidation in 1948, was a war that astonished every observer. John Stoessinger in his book, “Why Nations go to War” noted that even the most sophisticated military strategists and analysts around the world could not stop asking “how did they do it?” Israel’s survival in 1948 was attributed to many unusual factors, not the least, ‘the hand of God’.

In the years that followed, many more wars were fought – major wars, minor wars, incursions, skirmishes, expeditions and military actions. Israel has never stopped fighting. However the Yom Kippur War of October, 1973 was Israel’s costliest war in both man and treasure. But it was to alter the thinking of some of Israel’s enemies. For the first time since 1948, Israel’s territory was breached and the penetration went so deep that Israel saw itself on the brink of defeat.

But Israel rallied and launched an offensive that altered the regional map. Yom Kippur solidified Israel’s position as a power in the Middle East. Suddenly it became very clear that the Middle East has a regional super power – Israel. Israel’s invincibility was anchored on three basic paradigms: a superior military complex, an extraordinarily resourceful intelligence apparatus and solid American backing.

Some of the belligerent Arab states grudgingly came to the realisation that the goals of ‘annihilation of Israel’ was no longer realistic. Israel had become too powerful for its enemies to handle. Some of their neighbours decided to rethink their strategy and pursue the path of peace. Successive American governments played key role in mid-wifing the peace processes. First to make peace with Israel were – Egypt (1979) and Jordan (1994). Later on, more Arab states normalised relations with Israel. These were, UAE, Bahrain, Sudan and Morocco all in 2020. Saudi Arabia, a major power in the Middle East, was at the threshold of signing a peace deal with Israel last year when Hamas, with the backing of Iran, struck on October 7, the 50th anniversary of Yom Kippur.

The question many have asked and kept asking was – “why did Israel go to sleep on the anniversary of Yom Kippur?” Why such huge intelligence failure even among her equally capable allies? What were the Mossad, CIA and MI6 doing? “How did this happen?” The Arabs believe in symbolism and the significance of numbers. They pay great attention to such equations.

Yom Kippur is an important date in the Arab psyche. Yom Kippur broke the backs of the Arab enemies of Israel and forever altered the regional balance of power in the Middle East. Israel ought to have known that their enemies do not forgive and they do not forget. They only bid their time. It is amazing that the delicate planning and flurry that went into October 7 took place right under the noses of the Mossad and CIA.

In an article I wrote on October 8, a day after Hamas invasion, I stated that “Hamas has opened the gates of hell.” Events of the last one year have proved that it was not an exaggeration. The repercussions have been horrendous. On all sides. Hamas, ordinary Palestinians and Israelis have all paid a huge prize – in blood and tears. And the crisis has continued to escalate, sucking in other actors from different places. It has become a rallying point for all the Israeli haters in the region – Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi rebels in Yemen, Islamic resistance group in Iraq, Syrian based militia, and other Palestinian factions in both the Gaza strip and the West Bank.

Behind these groups, pulling the strings, goading them on, is the Islamic republic of Iran, an imperial theocracy that imagines itself a global power. Iran is a sworn enemy of Israel and the west, particularly the United States. Iran is a latter entrant into the melee.

Following the revolution of 1979, the new regime led by Ayatolla Khomeni, felt buoyed on to spread its brand of Islamic revolution across the Middle East and wherever possible. Iran declared that “Israel must be wiped off the map” and commenced an intensive nuclear programme to back up its zeal. In addition, Iran provides weapons, technical know-how, finances and other forms of logistics needed to keep Israel’s enemies in business.

They call themselves “the axis of resistance,” whereas America and its western allies call them “the axis of terror.” While these groups may enjoy the silent sympathy of other renowned autocracies – China, Russia, North Korea and Turkiye, only Iran is known to provide material sponsorship for their activities.

In mid-April, Iran took the unprecedented step of direct attack on the territory of Israel by firing hundreds of drones and missiles into Israel. Teheran said the attack was a response to Israeli strike on its embassy in Syria, a few weeks earlier, which had killed both Iranian and Syrian officials. Israel, with the help of the U.S. and UK intercepted most of the drones and later retaliated with airstrikes on targets inside Iran.

The April exchange marked a new dimension in the conflict between Iran and Israel. For the first time, Iran mustered the boldness to hit Israel directly. Israel’s response were airstrikes on Iranian targets including Iran’s air defense facility in the town of Isfahan. But these strikes were largely symbolic as massive international pressure was mounted on Israel to avoid undue escalation of tension in an already very volatile region.
To be continued tomorrow.
Dr. Egbo is a Lecturer\Resource Person in NILDS, Abuja. He can be reached via: 08037910012.