A former Chief Executive Officer of Leadership Newspapers, Dele Fanimo, has said that President Bola Tinubu and the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) should not be presumed to be heading for defeat in the 2027 presidential election, insisting that political realities across the country matter more than narratives on social media.

Fanimo, a former News Editor of The Guardian and political analyst, said his assessment of the political landscape did not support the assumption that the opposition would dislodge Tinubu in the next general elections.

He said that the President had made significant inroads in the North through early political calculations and alliances, adding that the extent of Tinubu’s support in the region was being underestimated in online discussions.

According to Fanimo, social media conversations are not a reliable measure of electoral strength because they may not accurately reflect voters’ preferences across Nigeria’s six geopolitical zones.

He also questioned the ability of the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), Peter Obi, to secure sufficient support in the North, saying that Obi had not undertaken the level of political engagement in the region that a successful presidential campaign would require.

Fanimo further contended that historical grievances and regional sentiments could complicate efforts to persuade some northern voters to support an Igbo presidential candidate.

His position, however, represents his assessment of northern political attitudes and should not be taken as evidence that voters across the region hold a uniform view of Obi or his presidential ambition.

The political analyst maintained that a candidate’s popularity in one part of the country was insufficient to guarantee victory, adding that presidential success depends on building a broad electoral coalition across regional and political divides.

Fanimo dismissed suggestions that other presidential hopefuls in the South-West would weaken Tinubu’s support in the region.

He said that the APC retained a substantial political presence in the zone and maintained that the emergence of other candidates would not necessarily translate into a decisive loss of support for the president.

Fanimo also cited Tinubu’s defeat in Lagos State during the 2023 presidential election as evidence that electoral outcomes could differ from expectations, although he cautioned against interpreting that result as proof that the President had lost his broader political base.

He questioned claims that social media discussions accurately represented voting patterns, saying that online political narratives could exaggerate the strength of particular candidates.

On the controversy over describing Lagos as a no-man’s-land, Fanimo rejected the expression, saying that the state’s cosmopolitan character and commercial diversity did not erase its historical and cultural identity.

He maintained that migration and economic activity had contributed to Lagos’ development but said these factors should not be confused with questions of historical ownership.

Fanimo also said that political calculations surrounding the 2027 election should be assessed against developments on the ground rather than assumptions drawn from online debates.

He urged all presidential contestants and their supporters to accept the outcome of the election, regardless of the eventual winner, stressing the importance of peaceful political competition.