2027: Will Ogun honour its zoning agreement? 

As consultations and permutations for the 2027 governorship election gather momentum, the politics of zoning is unsettling political leaders in Ogun State. The people of Ogun West have not produced a governor since the state’s creation in 1976. Now, they are advocating political justice, equity and fairness than the Ogun East and Central zones seem ready to entertain, GBENGA AKINFENWA and AZEEZ OLORUNLOMERU report.

IF there is any state where the gentleman’s agreement of zoning has not been respected since Nigeria returned to democratic rule in 1999, it is Ogun State and its political actors are not pretending about it.

In fact, it appears there is an orchestrated conspiracy between Ogun Central and Ogun East, against the zoning of the governorship seat to Ogun West in the last 26 years of democratic governance in Nigeria.

The two senatorial districts control the largest population and local government areas, and have been rotating the highly coveted office between themselves. To maintain the tradition ahead of the 2027 governorship, politicians from Ogun Central have begun preparations to take over from incumbent Prince Dapo Abiodun, who hails from Ogun East, jettisoning the principle of equity, fairness and justice being advocated by Ogun West.

The Guardian investigation revealed that Ogun West, populated by Yewa people, has not been able to achieve their desire of governing the state because politicians from the zone have allowed themselves to be used as pawns in the complex political game. They are often divided and weakened to confront other formidable candidates from other zones.

Besides, politicians from the zone lack the war chest to pursue their agenda, relying on moneybags from other zones for financial support. More often, these political merchants trade-off Ogun West’s agenda to the highest bidder.

Politicians from the zone have not only become a laughing stock but are often derided for pursuing an agenda they have never realised. In the local parlance, the narrative “it is the turn of Ogun West” does not evoke any seriousness. It is now common to hear the refrain, ‘Yewalokan, Egba lo ma se’, or ‘Yewalokan, Ijebu lo ma se’, which literary means, “It is Yewa’s turn but the Egba will have it” or Yewa deserves it but the Ijebu will occupy the office.”

Although 2011 general elections provided the best opportunity for Ogun West to produce the governor, their inability to speak with one voice and common candidate jeopardised its chance. This forced the pendulum to swing back to Ogun Central, which later produced former Governor Ibikunle Amosun, who succeeded Gbenga Daniel from Remo in Ogun East. As the proverb goes: “When two brothers fight, a stranger inherits their father’s land.”

But as 2027 is fast approaching, pundits are beginning to wonder whether the internal arrangements of the two major political parties, All Progressives Congress (APC) and Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) will support the principle of zoning. This is because Ladi Adebutu, from Ogun East, who was the candidate of PDP in the 2023 gubernatorial election has taken over the structure of the party with the intent to re-contest in the next election.

However, some political gladiators in Ogun Central have also started moves to present candidates to succeed Abiodun.

Is APC going to respect the principle of zoning and give its ticket to Ogun West especially as it is becoming obvious that Adebutu, who is controlling PDP structure will clinch its governorship ticket?

Another concern is whether Governor Abiodun will also support the aspiration of the Chairman of the Senate Committee on Appropriation, Olamilekan Solomon Adeola, representing Ogun West in the upper chamber.

There is also the fear of what may be the disposition of the presidency to Senator Adeola’s governorship ambition and Governor Abiodun’s determination to choose his successor. Will Ogun Central allow Ogun West to produce the next governorship candidate? And will Ogun West remain united if Amosun and Daniel decided to support another candidate other than Senator Adeola as their preferred candidate to succeed Abiodun.

The chances of political godfathers agreeing on a governorship candidate from Ogun West are slim. However, a major litmus test lies in whether the aspirants can sacrifice their personal interests for the common political desire of the zone to produce the next governor.

According to political analysts, 2027 presents another golden opportunity for Ogun West Senatorial District to produce its first governor since creation of the state in 1976.

The senatorial district was ‘torn-apart’ in 2011 between the late General Tunji Olurin (rtd) of the PDP and Prince Gboyega Nasir Isiaka (GNI), People’s Party of Nigeria (PPN) governorship candidate, paving way for the coalition that installed Ibikunle Amosun from Ogun Central.

The acrimony within the former ruling PDP between the Daniel faction and the that championed by former President Olusegun Obasanjo, led to the formation of the PPN, resulting in the mass exodus of PDP members.

Though, ahead of the 2027 journey, apart from Senator Adeola, other aspirants include Prince Isiaka, who is currently a member, House of Representatives and promoter of The Believe Movement with structures in all the 236 wards and 20 local government areas in the state. Others include former Senator Tolu Odebiyi and a four-time Federal House of Representatives member, Abiodun Akinlade.

Fostering a common front will enable them to confront threats from Ogun Central that are already scheming for the office. The Youth Involvement in Good Governance (YIGGOM) recently released a statement that Egba division has what it takes to take over the state’s number one seat, despite the much-hyped Yewa agenda.

Its President, Olayiwola Ahmed, said the Egbas are already warming up for the 2027 election, noting that there are many Egba-born individuals qualified to contest and win the election,

Ahmed also stated that the state needs a technocrat to help provide an economic roadmap to consolidate development from the present and past administration in the state. He noted that the zone is blessed with the likes of Dr Gbenga Adeoye, former ambassador to the United Kingdom (UK), Sharafa Tunji Ishola and Bukola Olopade, among others.

In fact, Sharafa has buttressed Olayiwola’s position of Ogun Central readiness to succeed Abiodun. Speaking during his 64th birthday in Abeokuta, the former ambassador to the UK said: “This is the first time the Egba people will unanimously agree that the governorship position should be zoned to Ogun Central.”

He, however, debunked the insinuation that Egba people always thwart the aspiration of the Ogun West people to produce a governor.

Aside, there are growing concerns among some members of APC in the state over the battle for the control of the party between the governor and Senator Adeola ahead of the 2027 election, especially as rumours are making the rounds that Abiodun may not support Adeola’s aspiration.

Though the two APC leaders have debunked the rumours, happenings during the build-up to the last local council election in the state was a pointer to the direction as both of them disagreed on the candidates for the election.

Many had expected that a proper primary would be held to elect candidates, but aspirants allegedly loyal to the governor, were handpicked through consensus, at the expense of other qualified aspirants from Senator Adeola’s camp.

Some of the aggrieved aspirants who spoke to The Guardian, accused party leaders of doing the bidding of the governor by failing to allow popular candidates to emerge across the state through transparent primary. They noted that the decision has further fractured the party with aggrieved aspirants threatening to take their pounds of flesh.

But concerned members from Yewa are of the view that the cold war between the governor and Senator Adeola, coupled with rumours that Governor Abiodun is supporting another candidate to succeed him, may undermine the chances of Ogun West in getting their own in the governor’s seat.

However, the State Publicity Secretary of the APC, Tunde Oladunjoye, dismissed as incorrect the insinuation that Governor Abiodun is not favourably disposed to Senator Adeola’s gubernatorial aspiration.

In his statement titled: “2027 governorship candidate not on the table,” Oladunjoye said there had been several misinterpretations about Ogun politics of 2027.

According to him, “for the avoidance of doubt and with all sense of responsibility, the issue of the candidacy for the 2027 governorship ticket of the APC is not on the table of the party and its leaders for now.

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“The present preoccupation of the party is to support our performing governor and leader of the party in the state, Prince DapoAbiodun, in executing his unfolding legacy projects, which will certainly boost the standing of our party at the next general elections.

“While members have the right to project their preferred aspirants, we must be wary of misinformation that may heat up the polity and create needless rumors and rancour.

“It is needless to remind members that the party has the established structure and procedure to apply the big sticks for those who overstep their bounds.”

QUOTE:

Politicians from the zone have not only become a laughing stock but are often derided for pursuing an agenda they have never realised. In the local parlance, the narrative “it is the turn of Ogun West” does not evoke any seriousness. It is now common to hear the refrain, ‘Yewalokan, Egba lo ma se’, or ‘Yewalokan, Ijebu lo ma se’, which literary means, ‘It is Yewa’s turn but the Egba will have it’ or ‘Yewa deserves it but the Ijebu will occupy the office’