APC, PDP battle for supremacy ahead of Osun 2026 poll

With the gubernatorial election over a year away, both the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) are leaving no one in doubt of their ambitions for power in Osun. Electorates and neutrals, however, wish to see equal sense of purpose in the delivery of good governance in Osun and at the national level, OLUWOLE IGE reports.

More than four critical factors may determine the outcome of the 2026 off-cycle governorship election in Osun State. One, is the results of the Edo and Ondo off-cycle governorship polls in which the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) defeated the major opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), especially the Heartbeat State’s, where former Governor Godwin Obaseki failed to retain the state for PDP.

Another factor will be the determination of the Osun electorate whether they will remain steadfast with their idol, Governor Ademola Adeleke, like they did four years ago or change their minds.

It is almost certain that the vote-buying methodology, which has allegedly form part of election winning strategies in Nigeria be deployed in the Osun gubernatorial poll. But the onus is on the electorate to stick by their conscience or succumb to the power of the highest bidder.

Another critical factor will bother on how the major opposition APC is going to resolve the cracks within its ranks and find a way to handle the issue of the expelled former governor of the state, Ogbeni Rauf Aregbesola, who was also the immediate past Minister of Interior under the APC. This is one factor that is peculiar to the major opposition party and it is going to tell on its performance.

But cardinal among the factors is the interests of President Bola Tinubu and Governor Adeleke. It is going to be an ego contest between the duo. Osun is the hometown of President Tinubu, which he lost disgracefully to the Adeleke’s political might four years ago when the incumbent governor defeated former Governor Gboyega Oyetola, a blood brother of Tinubu.

Governor Adeleke too would also strive to protect the political image of his family by retaining victory in Osun. The role of the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) is also going to be crucial in the contest whether its electronic gadgets necessary for the election will work as expected or not just as millions of Nigerians will be interested in how the various security personnel will discharge their duties without being compromised.

It is also going to be an interesting scenario how many APC and PDP governors will move their seats to Osun ahead of the election, like we witnessed in Edo and Ondo, to mobilise the support of indigenes of their various states, who reside in the State of the Living Spring, for their preferred candidate.

But for now, stakeholders and gladiators are not leaving anything to chance as they are making surreptitious moves to shore up their chances ahead of the exercise.

While the PDP-controlled administration of Governor Adeleke is exerting efforts to make impacts through its massive infrastructural projects across the state and sectoral policies, including prompt payment of workers’ salaries, APC has not shirked its responsibilities in taking on the government and interrogating what it terms alleged profligacy and misplaced priorities.

It is not an understatement to assert that unfolding intrigues, undercurrents and political manoeuvring have shown that both APC and the ruling PDP, have begun to explore potential arsenals aimed at outsmarting each other as the poll draws near. Ironically, none of the 13 other political parties that participated in the 2022 governorship election, has commenced any serious preparation towards the contest.

But political pundits believed that the outcome of the recent gubernatorial poll in Ondo State, won by Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa is definitely throwing up some issues and sending strong signals to the PDP.

Besides, it is not out of place that President Tinubu may not just take a passing interest in who or what party takes over Oke-Fia Government House in Osun comes 2026, with the impression that he will support any legitimate struggle to rein in the state into the fold of the progressives.

In the South-West geopolitical zone, only Osun and Oyo states are currently under the control of the PDP while Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and Lagos are being governed by the APC.

Findings indicated that the PDP-led administration of Adeleke may have to go extra miles in terms of appeal, achievements, governance and acceptability to stand deft moves by the APC to win the coming governorship poll.

The tone for battle was set just after the Ondo governorship poll when the National Chairman of the APC, Abdullah Ganduje, reportedly boasted that Osun is next in line for take by his party in 2026.

Ganduje said: “Our next target now is the South-West geopolitical zone, and you know we are good at hitting the target, and this is Osun State and Oyo State. We will do all that is possible to bring them into the fold so that we have political homogeneity in the South-West geopolitical zone.”

His statement had caused some upsets in Osun polity, drawing flaks from the PDP and Adeleke, who described the APC chairman’s outburst as a threat to democracy and peace in the South West.

But the ruling Osun PDP quickly replied to Ganduje, saying the APC national chairman is suffering from verbal diarrhoea and swollen ego. Olawale Rasheed, the Chief Press Secretary (CPS) to Governor Adeleke further accused Ganduje and APC of setting an agenda to destabilise the South-West zone and create a crisis for Mr President in his region and at his home front.

However, the critical question begging for answer in the political circle is, does the APC in Osun have what it takes to spring a surprise in the 2026 governorship poll bearing in mind intra party crisis, which have fragmented it over the years?

From the upset created in the APC through the formation of a splinter group, Omoluabi Progressives Caucus, led by former Minister of Internal Affairs and erstwhile governor of Osun, Rauf Aregbesola to other internal squabbles, the journey to win the next election by the party may be tortuous and thorny.

At present, the APC in the state is divided into two major blocs, with the mainstream under the control of the Minister for Marine and Blue Economy, Mr Gboyega Oyetola, while the Omoluabi Progressives Caucus is led by Aregbesola.

The party recently suspended Aregbesola for alleged anti party activities and outburst against some leaders of the APC, including President Tinubu, former interim national chairman of the party, Chief Bisi Akande, among others.

Keen watchers of political dynamics of Osun hold the notion that failure to resolve the internal wrangling within the APC and restore unity ahead of the election may spell doom for the party.

Recall that the polarisation of the party among the two major blocs largely contributed to its disastrous outing during the 2022 governorship poll won by the incumbent Governor Adeleke and the albatross may likely repeat itself should the APC fail to close its ranks before 2026.

Another issue that may determine the electoral success of the party is the senatorial district where its next gubernatorial candidate is sourced from. Recently a chieftain of the party and former Commissioner for Information and Strategy, Sunday Akere, while addressing journalists in Osogbo, said the governorship ticket of the party is open to former Governor Oyetola, if he chooses to run and that it will only be zoned to Osun West senatorial district should the minister refuses to contest.

This development is already generating some ripples as leadership of the APC in the state. To douse these ripples, the Director of Media and Information of the party, Kola Olabisi, dismissed Akere’s position, saying the party had not zoned its ticket to any senatorial district, just as he emphasised that the former commissioner merely expressed his personal opinion.

Nonetheless, the party is not resting on its oars in galvanising support ahead of poll through the implementation of empowerment schemes in some communities by some of its gladiators, most especially the Minister for Marine and Blue Economy, Oyetola and the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Nigeria Inland Waterways Agency (NIWA), Mr Munirudeen Bola Oyebamiji, among others.

Oyetola, who flew the party’s ticket in 2022 hails from Iragbiji in Ifelodun Local Government of the state, which is under Osun Central Senatorial District. His predecessor, Aregbesola is from Osun East Senatorial District. However, there had been clamour for Osun West to produce a governor, which was the fulcrum the PDP explored in 2022, thus throwing up the incumbent governor, Adeleke.

The Guardian gathered that for now, the PDP’s return ticket seems in the kitty for Governor Adeleke as there is no visible opposition within the party to his bid for a second term.

However, will the massive infrastructural drive of Adeleke, signpost by the construction of 45 roads across 30 local government areas, five flyover bridges in Osogbo, Ile-Ife, Owode Ede, Ikirun, rehabilitation of 345 health centres, phase two water provision in 332 wards and regular payment of workers’ salaries guarantee his electoral victory?

Though the projects being funded through the N100 billion infrastructural development plan are currently at different stages of completion, with some already inaugurated, pundits are of the view that the governor needs to work smarter and harder to win the 2026 election.

Baring his mind on the seeming challenges facing the APC in Osun against the backdrop of 2026 election, the party’s Director of Media and Information, Olabisi, contended that: “There are no known hurdles that are bedevilling our party in our efforts to wrestle the power from the apparently confused ruling PDP.”

He argued: “All the variables, which the cynics of the party may be capitalising on as hurdles are misplaced as they are necessary ingredients of politics and politicking, which are undergone by a formidable opposition party like the APC that has been working assiduously to chase away the PDP from the political firmament of the state.

He disclosed that APC is more virile and formidable after the suspension of Aregbesola. On the polarisation of the party, he said, “I don’t know what you mean by the factionalisation of our party by any group that is not registered.”

But from the grapevine, there are strong indications that the presidency is still very much interested in supporting Oyetola to return to Osun for the 2026 governorship election. Perhaps this is what has been infuriating the Aregbesola’s faction.

However while speaking to our correspondent on the imminent hurdles ahead of the PDP regarding the forthcoming governorship poll, the secretary of the party Osun State, Bola Ajao, stated: “If it is the leadership issues currently troubling the party at the national level you are referring to, I can always assure you that it’s a family affair and it shall be sorted out.”

According to him, “As for the Osun State chapter, the party is one rock solid united political family with no division nor distraction and we are good to go. Like the boys scout slogan, ‘be prepared’, we are prepared, all is well and our victory is certain.

“If we must talk of hurdles, then it can only be time, processes, and procedures. And as a political organisation in Osun State, all our activities and party management is in tandem with global best practices. The popular saying in Osun State now is ‘Osun no be Edo’, ‘Osun no be Ondo’.”

Commenting on the governorship ticket of the party, he disclosed that the party would field Adeleke, saying “for a number of reasons it is often said that you don’t change a winning team.”

“Governor Ademola Adeleke has always defeated the APC. First during the 2017 senatorial election, next is the 2018 gubernatorial election before the doctrine of inconclusiveness as well as in the 2022 gubernatorial election. So, to Governor Adeleke, APC is customer dada ni. If we are now talking of performance, promise keeping, credibility, and acceptability, Governor Ademola, is the man for the job, “Ajao said.